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“THE PROTEST SENTIMENT OF THE GEORGIAN SOCIETY IS STRONG”
ARCHIL GEGESHIDZE,
Political analyst, senior fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Tbilisi
It is early to speak whether the Georgian opposition may make President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia step down and whether the early presidential elections will be held. The 9 April protest action started not long ago, and the achievement by the opposition of its goals can be determined by the strengthening or, on the contrary, by the weakening of the protest potential.
The protest march has shown that the protest sentiment in the Georgian society is strong. And the government has to take the opposition’s firmness into consideration.
What is more important is that the international community came to pay its attention to the protests in Georgia. As a result, the West is changing its attitude towards the Georgian authorities and opposition. For example, formerly the Western press published few positive articles about Georgia’s opposition, but now it publishes negative statements about the government and more positive materials about the opposition leaders as well.
Another significant example is that since the 9 April events the EU envoy to the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, has tried to act as a mediator in settlement of the conflict between the authorities and the opposition who are unwilling to negotiate with each other. Peter Semneby’s interest means that the European officials are aware of considerable protest potential in Georgia.
The 9 April events have shown that the Georgian oppositionists are united and that their common goal is to overthrow the authorities. For the first time the opposition was united in November, 2007. There is no telling how long the present unity will exist.
The protest sentiment will be crucial to the further developments in Georgia. The negotiations positions of the government’s political opponents depend on whether many Georgians can take to the streets or not. If the people display the same fortitude, the opposition will have a better chance of gaining its objects.
This way, if the authorities decide to negotiate with the opposition, two scenarios are possible. With the protest attitudes continuing to be as strong as they are now, the issue of Mikheil Saakashvili’s resignation may be examined. But if the opposition softens its stance, Mr Saakashvili’s resignation is unlikely to be discussed, then early parliamentary elections, restoration of the constitutional balance between branches of government, improvement of the election laws, the rules of formation of election administrations, creation of independent legal proceedings and liberalization of mass media can become the key issues.
All of that is possible in case of peaceful course of events within a constitutional framework. If the Tbilisi protest march participants are joined by those in regions setting up roadblocks and blocking the infrastructure facilities, tensions will grow. The authorities can lose their temper and use force, which can be legal, but in political terms those actions would be a mistake like that made by the authorities in November 2007 when they broke up the demonstration. Such a mistake would produce a great wave of protests, the opposition will become stronger and get better opportunities to secure its objects.
April 15, 2009
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