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“GEORGIAN AUTHORITIES ARE NOT GOING TO MAKE SERIOUS CONCESSIONS TO OPPOSITION”
GHIA NODIA,
Professor of Ilia Chavchavadze University, director of School of the Caucasian Studies, Tbilisi
The Georgian opposition has been holding the protest actions for over a month. The protest started subsiding after several days of mass rallies in April. However, after the 7 May physical skirmish between the police and the opposition the protests recommenced. A lot of people took to the streets again.
For all that, the protest actions were on a smaller scale than those on 9 April, the first day of the protest marches. The common tendency (the number of demonstrators decreasing) remains without change. The opposition has 10-20 thousand supporters who can be mobilized, which may make the authorities feel uncomfortable. But the resources are too small to overthrow the government.
The meeting between President Mikheil Saakashvili and the opposition leaders on 11 May showed that the opposition had several wings. Irakli Alasania, leader of “Alliance for Georgia” is the main representative of the moderate wing. He is the only oppositionist who after the meeting with the Georgian President said that the dialogue with the authorities was possible.
The radical wing can be called a “female wing” for convenience. Salome Zourabishvili and Nino Burjanadze, leaders of the parties “Georgia’s Way” and “Democratic Movement – United Georgia” are the radical wing representatives. Giorgi Khaindrava, former State Minister on conflict settlement and one of the opposition leaders, also took a tough stance towards the authorities. The others hesitate in their choices, they belong to neither wing.
But in spite of those differences, the Georgian opposition is united. Meanwhile, the authorities hope that the opposition will be divided and that some oppositionists will cooperate with them in the Constitution change issues and in political reforms.
The radical oppositionists, on the other hand, would like to strain the situation, they pin their hopes on the clashes with the authorities that would drive the oppositionists to take still more people to the streets. For the time being the radical opposition has no other strategy. The authorities continue to feel confident and are not going to make serious concessions. So nobody will resign.
The mutiny in a military unit could pose a threat to the authorities, but it failed. The authorities breathed with relief. Although, theoretically, such events can take place again, this is unlikely.
The military officers’ mutiny is bad for any government. That means that the military, security and law enforcement agencies are displeased with the regime. On the other hand, the rebels hoped to get strong support. But they failed to do that, which indicates that repeated rebellions are unlikely.
May 13, 2009
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