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“GEORGIAN OPPOSITION IS READY TO ACT”

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GHIA NODIA,
Professor of Ilia Chavchavadze University, director of School of the Caucasian Studies, Tbilisi

The opposition rally started in Georgia on April 9. The opposition leaders are sure that they will make President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili resign, and the early elections will be called.

But how strongly the Georgian population supports the protest march will be seen in the near future. Of course, some people are displeased with the current authorities. But the system of public opinion polls, which would make it possible to draw such conclusions, is rudimentary in Georgia. One can say that the greater part of the population backs both the resignation of the President and holding the early elections.

I doubt that the same number of people support the opposition’s firmness and uncompromising position as well as the methods used.

At the same time the government also displays fortitude and consolidated approach, it is unwilling to make concessions. The opposition reckons on the government’s weak points and the possibility that under pressure from the opposition the government, military, security and law enforcement officials will come over to the opposition’s side and make big mistakes. But the authorities are united.

The Georgian government, society and international observers are concerned about firmness and uncompromising position displayed by both parties - opposition and authorities. The atmosphere is very nervous, there is a fear that the opposition and the government’s determination can lead to provocations and violence. It is not fortuitous that two weeks before the protest action candid photography of some groups’ purchasing weapons was shown on TV. Though, the authorities do not accuse the opposition of that directly.

That’s why international organizations have sent rally observers to Georgia. Everybody understands that provocations are possible and force can be used.

Given the current situation, the international observers can act as advisers helping the authorities make right decisions in the event of provocations. As a mater of fact, they will cooperate with Ministry of the Interior officials.

If the protest marches are successful for the opposition, the West will call upon the Georgian authorities to calm, but, on the whole, it will mark time.

April 9, 2009




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