THERE ARE NO PRO-RUSSIAN POLITICIANS IN GEORGIA
SERGEI MARKEDONOV,
Head of the International Relations Department of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, Moscow
The confrontation between the Georgian authorities and opposition has a long history. The understanding of this conflict requires the analysis of more than the situation in April 2009, when mass opposition protest actions started.
The year 2007 was the turning point, which a lot of events, above all the 7 November demonstration dispersal, favored. Then the authorities used force against the opposition, which extremely complicated their dialogue.
After the November 2007 events the presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Georgia. The opposition lost them and considered the election returns to be illegitimate. Since then, the confrontation between the opposition and the authorities has become unconstructive.
I believe that the present rallies have nothing to do with the Russia-Georgia armed conflict which took place in August 2008. For all that, the August war has influenced the current events in terms of two factors. The external factor is that Mikheil Saakashvili does not enjoy the West’s support any more. This is evident from the new Barack Obama’s Administration and the EU careful position.
The internal factor is that Mikheil Saakashvili failed to keep his promises which he gave during his first term. One of the most important promises was the territorial integrity restoration.
Mr Saakashvili has changed since August 2008, he realizes that he cannot act in such a free-and-easy way as he did in 2007. The opposition realizes that too.
The political symbols are also significant to the present conflict between the authorities and the opposition. As a matter of fact, the 9 April events start the history of the new post-Soviet Georgia: the rally dispersion by the Soviet troops (1989) and the independence restoration (1991). Though, the Independence Day is observed in Georgia on May 26.
On May 7, 2009 the armed conflict between the police and the opposition took place. Although the conflict was on a smaller scale than that in 2007, it also compelled the opposition to protest again.
What does the current situation in Georgia mean for Russia?
On the one hand, the confrontation between the government and the opposition is Georgia’s domestic affair. Whoever wins the struggle, no one would take a pro-Russian position. On the other hand, Georgia borders upon Russia and counteract Russia’s interests in the region. That’s why all the Georgian events are of importance to Moscow. But there is no point for Russia in playing for any political force in Georgia.
As regards the prospects of the current confrontation between the authorities and the opposition, now Mikheil Saakashvili is weaker than he used to be. He cannot afford to settle the conflict by using force. The opposition has also become weaker because its representatives have to confront both Saakashvili and their comrades-in-arms.
May 19, 2009
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