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JOHN  MARONE, KYIV
WESTERN INTEGRATION – THE GREAT ORANGE HOPE

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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his one-time ally Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko have increasingly traded blows over the country’s budget, privatization, energy policy and, most recently, the Kyiv mayoral elections; however, when it comes to foreign policy, the two politicians who rose to power during Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution show unusual and possibly even unintended solidarity.

Orange unity is particularly evident under Russian pressure, which has grown in direct relation to the factionalism and political infighting so characteristic of Yushchenko's Ukraine.

So when Russia’s state Duma proposed on June 4 that Russia pull out of the so-called Great Treaty on Friendship and Partnership with Ukraine if Kyiv continued to seek NATO membership, the lines that separated the Orange politicians from their eastern-looking opponents, the Communists and Donetsk-based Regions party, again became clear.

Speaking during a state visit to Slovenia the same day, Yushchenko said that Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, had the right to decide its own security. He added that his administration’s efforts to join NATO were not motivated by the perception of Russia as a threat.

“This is not a policy against a third country,” he said, “It isn’t a policy against one of our neighbors.”

Fresh from her party’s defeat in the Kyiv mayoral elections, a defeat facilitated by Yushchenko, who is wary of his premier's presidential ambitions, Tymoshenko didn’t shrink from the common Orange cause.

“Every radical step worsens the state of affairs between the two countries [Russia and Ukraine],” she told a press conference in Kyiv on Wednesday. “The government will do everything to ensure that cooperation between our countries is dignified.”

No less important, lawmakers from the pro-presidential Our Ukraine faction and Tymoshenko’s bloc were equally in unison in their condemnation of the Duma proposal.

But Orange solidarity is rare these days.

Ever since Tymoshenko returned as premier following last September’s snap elections, long standing tension between her and Yushchenko have remained at the boiling point.

Relations are so strained that both politicians have been accused of flirting with their common enemy from the Orange Revolution, former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych’s Regions party, in order to get the upper hand in time for next year’s presidential race.

Concerned about its own political future, Regions has been looking after the party’s bread and butter – Ukraine’s Russian-speaking south and east. It was in these regions that Tymoshenko, herself from the east, drew the extra voter support needed to replace Yanukovych as premier last fall. It’s also in places like the industrial Donbass or autonomous Crimean peninsula where Russia sees its greatest influence.

Long supportive of issues such as making Russian a second official language in Ukraine and opposing NATO membership, Regions and its Communist allies in the parliament were quick to exploit the latest opportunity afforded them by the Duma to show their eastern orientation.

Lawmakers from both factions immediately blamed Ukraine for the Duma proposal in media statements that betrayed their anti-Western sentiment as much as their loyalty to Moscow.

Top Ukrainian Communist Petro Symonenko told journalists on June 4: “One has to admit that it is Ukraine that is doing the provoking.” According to Symonenko, the Ukrainian authorities’ plans to join NATO and the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s presence in Crimea are sowing suspicion in Moscow.

As for Yanukovych, he was conveniently in Moscow for a meeting with Russian Speaker Boris Gryzlov when the latter announced the Duma proposal.

“We are concerned by the latest statements made by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko regarding the intensification of the campaign to join NATO and the premature discussion of issues related to the basing of “Russia’s” Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol after 2017 [when the basing agreement ends],” Gryzlov said during their meeting.

“This issue concerns us,” parroted Yanukovych.

Gryzlov’s statements are nothing new, but rather neatly fit in with similar rhetoric coming out of the post-Yeltsin Kremlin.

Nor has Yanukovych changed his tune, although since stepping down as premier he has been whistling the tune with more candor and gusto.

With Regions’ business wing increasingly supportive of closer economic ties to Europe, Mr. Yanukovych is more dependent than ever on the party’s more reactionary elements, who woo eastern voters with neo-Soviet propaganda.

This makes the former premier a natural friend of Putin’s Russia, which was one of only a few states to recognize Yanukovych’s fraud-filled and short-lived presidential victory in 2004.

On May 27, Yanukovych told a group of EC ambassadors that his party advocates special relations with Russia.

His remark came in the wake of Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov’s recent visit to Sevastopol, where the outspoken politician suggested the city be returned to Russia.

Then there was Vladimir Putin’s famous crack earlier this year about the possibility of Russia aiming nuclear missiles at Ukraine.

The Kremlin has even allowed itself to meddle in Ukraine’s domestic affairs as when Gryzlov announced that Yushchenko had no right to disband the parliament last year - a move that eventually led to fresh elections and an end to the Yanukovych government.

There is, of course, everything right with Mr. Yanukovych’s defending the interests of his constituency. Many Ukrainians support making Russian a second official language and most are against their country joining NATO.

But one would be hard pressed to argue the benefits of Ukraine prolonging the basing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea – especially when people like Luzhkov continue to suggest that Crimea belongs to Russia.

Other members of the Regions party have cultivated suspiciously close relations with Russian gas giant Gazprom, whose aggressive Ukrainian policy makes it arguable one of the greatest threats to Ukraine’s security.

Russia has proven itself more than capable of looking after its own interests, whether through its privileged place on the UN Security Council or the sale of its abundant energy resources. The Kremlin also has more than enough levers of influence in Ukraine. Ukrainian leaders are not nearly as fortunate. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko don’t have to be “pro-Western” to want to join NATO. Ukraine’s western neighbors, including a few former Soviet republics, did just that on the way to getting EU membership. Both Orange politicians also support holding a referendum on the issue, but only after they have given their fellow citizens a chance to hear about the benefits of North-Atlantic membership. This is not easy to do, as demonstrated by incidents like the one on May 29, when pro-NATO activists in Crimea were pelted with eggs and tomatoes by leftists and pro-Russian activists.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it clear in a radio interview in April that Russia would “do everything” to keep Ukraine from joining NATO. The question is who will do “everything” for Ukraine. In a country where personal and clan interests take precedence over state interests, political unity comes at a premium. The issue of NATO membership is inherently divisive and potentially explosive in Ukraine, but it may be one of the few that the Orange parties can agree on.

John Marone, a columnist of Eurasian Home website, Kyiv, Ukraine

June 5, 2008



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Jules Evans

07.11.2005

I was at the first US-Ukrainian conference in Boston last week. The first speaker, a former US National Security Council wonk named John Tedstrom, was particularly excited about Ukraine’s move to join NATO, which at the moment looks more realizable than its other ambition to join the EU. NATO accession, said Tedstrom, would help anchor Ukraine in a trans-Atlantic-focused foreign policy.



Our authors
  Ivan  Gayvanovych, Kiev

THE EXCHANGE

27 April 2010


Geopolitical influence is an expensive thing. The Soviet Union realized that well supporting the Communist regimes and movements all over the world including Cuba and North Korea. The current Russian authorities also understood that when they agreed that Ukraine would not pay Russia $40 billion for the gas in return for extension of the lease allowing Russia's Black Sea Fleet to be stationed in the Crimea.



  Aleh  Novikau, Minsk

KYRGYZ SYNDROME

20 April 2010


The case of Kurmanbek Bakiyev is consistent with the logic of the Belarusian authorities’ actions towards the plane crash near Smolensk. The decisions not to demonstrate the “Katyn” film and not to announce the mourning were made emotionally, to spite Moscow and Warsaw, without thinking about their consequences and about reaction of the society and the neighbouring countries.



  Akram  Murtazaev, Moscow

EXPLOSIONS IN RUSSIA

16 April 2010


Explosions take place in Russia again. The last week of March started with terrorist acts at the Moscow metro stations which were followed by blasts in the Dagestani city of Kizlar. The horror spread from the metro to the whole city.



  John  Marone, Kyiv

POOR RELATIONS – THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT GOES TO MOSCOW

29 March 2010


Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych symbolically selected Brussels as his first foreign visit upon taking the oath of office in what can only be seen as an exercise in public relations. The new government of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov headed straight for Moscow shortly thereafter with the sole intention of cutting a deal.



  Boris  Kagarlitsky, Moscow

THE WRATH DAY LIKE A GROUNDHOG DAY

25 March 2010


The protest actions, which the Russian extraparliamentary opposition had scheduled for March 20, were held as planned, they surprised or frightened nobody. Just as it had been expected, the activists of many organizations supporting the Wrath Day took to the streets… but saw there only the policemen, journalists and each other.



  Jules  Evans, London

COLD SNAP AFTER SPRING IN THE MIDDLE EAST

17 June 2009


As I write, angry demonstrations continue in Tehran and elsewhere in the Islamic Republic of Iran, over what the young demonstrators perceive as the blatant rigging of the presidential election to keep Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power for another five years. Reports suggest at least eight protestors have been killed by police.



  Kevin  O'Flynn, Moscow

THE TERRIBLE C-WORD

08 December 2008


The cri… no the word will not be uttered. Now that President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin have finally allowed themselves to belatedly use the word, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for me to spit it out of these lips. It’s c-this and c-that. If there was C-Span in Russia then it would be c-ing all day and all night long.



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