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RUSSIAN-BELARUSIAN RELATIONS AND THE CHISINAU CIS SUMMIT
YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK,
President of the Minsk-based Mizes Center, Belarus
President of Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s uncomplimentary words about the Russian-Belarusian relations and about Russian Premier Vladimir Putin personally have little to do with transformation of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) whose leaders will hold the summit in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau on October 9.
Aliaksandr Lukashenka has made his strongly-worded statements because of the grim domestic economic and political situation. The fourth quarter will show bad economic performance – negative balance of payments and trade balance. Exports fell almost by 45%, currency earnings – by 40%.
President Lukashenka hoped to keep the exchange rate at the expense of administrative limitations and the Russian credit of $500 million. But Russia’s refusal to issue credit to Belarus makes Minsk take tough economic measures. Unemployment may grow, for the time being the unemployment is concealed and includes about 400 thousand people, which exceeds the official unemployed people number.
So, Aliaksandr Lukashenka prepares for early presidential elections and he needs an “enemy” to mobilize his voters. This enemy could be the Russian company Gazprom, the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin.
The Belarusian President says that Vladimir Putin and Gazprom prevent Belarus and Russia from building a Union. Thus Aliaksandr Lukashenka could be backed by the Belarusians coming out for Belarus-Russia Union.
One cannot say Aliaksandr Lukashenka will lose the voters of those liking Vladimir Putin since the voters support the President too. Apart from that, even if those Belarusians turn their back on President Lukashenka, he will be backed by the people criticizing Vladimir Putin.
Aliaksandr Lukashenka also takes advantage of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev’s being at variance, which is indicated by recent joint war games in Belarus.
As a result, shortly before the presidential elections Aliaksandr Lukashenka may recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia and sign the agreement on the creation of the Collective Operational Reaction Forces (CORF) within the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). This way, Belarus would gain Russia’s favour for some time and Aliaksandr Lukashenka would be elected for the next presidential term.
Aliaksandr Lukashenka would use the CIS Summit in Chisinau to continue accusing Vladimir Putin of hindering the CIS development.
In terms of economic integration, the CIS is blank space.
So, Aliaksandr Lukashenka may give us other surprises. He may not ratify, sign and execute the Customs Union agreement between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.
Many events including, unfortunately, conflicts are expected to take place in the autumn. Meanwhile, Mr. Lukashenka’s statements would make Belarus still more dependent on Russia, thus threatening Belarus’ sovereignty. It is difficult for a country, which conflicts with Russia and does not establish relations with the West, to keep the sovereignty. And it is unclear why Belarus should conflict with Russia when it is going to build relations with the West.
October 8, 2009
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