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THE OKRUASHVILI FACTOR
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi
The scandalous revelations by ex-defense minister Irakli Okruashvili about dishonest and unlawful acts, which Georgia’s top officials, including President Mikheil Saakashvili, are said to have committed, and the following arrest of Okruashvili have, as expected, stirred up the quite wearisome political life in the country.
Because there is no lack in detailed comments on the event, there is little point in going into the circumstances of Irakli Okruashvili’s arrest and trying to find out whether his “infernal”, as the authorities put it, accusations or the authorities’ counter accusations against him are true. Taking the current state of the Georgian judiciary into account, it’s highly doubtful that the inquiry into Irakli Okruashvili’s accusations and pleading of his case will be independent and unbiased.
But one thing is evident enough. Irakli Okruashvili may use his arrest to draw political dividends that he lacked until recently. Now he is unlikely to be reproached for the implicit connections with the authorities, as it was often done in recent times, because many regarded Irakli Okruashvili’s intention of creating his party as the government-schemed election move made with the view to split and weaken the opposition by creating new pseudo-opposition forces. Ironically, everything turned out in favor of the authorities, and they can only rob their hands with pleasure. The broad opposition alliance, which could become a powerful counterbalance to the ruling party, is unlikely to be formed.
After the Okruashvili factor had appeared in the Georgian politics the opposition camp split up. The large opposition parliamentary New Right Party and several other extra-parliamentary opposition parties refused to participate in the mass rallies to support Okruashvili and to join a newly established National Council composed of the opposition parties that took part in the crowded protest march in front of the Georgian parliament on September 28 demanding release of Okruashvili and pre-term elections. The Council has set itself a clear objective to conduct a nationwide campaign to overthrow Mikheil Saakashvili and his rule, but acting within the Constitution. The question is whether these opposition parties will be united under the banner of Okruashvili who has almost become a hero and an imprisoned martyr. The tough statements made by Saakashvili and his henchmen that all the accusations against them are groundless, that the opposition is corrupt and is playing into the hands of Georgia’s enemies (transparent allusion to Russia), and that the authorities are ready to take extreme measures are only adding oil to the fire and forcing the opposing party to tough countermeasures.
On the other hand, it is increasingly evident that still popular Irakli Okruashvili is being used in a big political game in a full measure. The statements made by the famous tycoon Badri Patarkatsishvili (Irakli Okruashvili insists that Mikheil Saakashvili ordered him to kill Patarkatsishvili) that he trusts Okruashvili’s charges and that in the event of public unrest he will take the people’s side, obliquely indicate that anti-Saakashvili movement will be growing. Patarkatsishvili possesses the television channel “IMEDI” - the sole electronic media outlet in Georgia that is not controlled by the authorities. When allowing Irakli Okruashvili to appear on his channel where he made the known accusations and then making “IMEDI” the opposition’s mouthpiece, Patarkatsishvili actually unleashed the undeclared war against Mikheil Saakashvili.
Irakli Okruashvili started his political game digging up the dirt on Saakashvili and his team, to which he once belonged, because the “war of compromises” was likely to be his main “weapon” along with the national-patriotic rhetoric. By the way, the latter factor is of great importance in Okruashvili’s assets, because the majority of the Georgian society consider Okruashvili to be a leader advocating the national traditions and values, in contrast to Saakashvili who is widely perceived by most of Georgians as a cosmopolitan installed in power by the West and fighting against the Georgian traditional cultural foundations and the Orthodox Church.
The current situation in Georgia, especially in the backdrop of the opposition’s activities looks like pre-revolutionary at first sight and some argue that the new revolution seems inevitable in the immediate future. However, more careful insight into the situation given the existing balance of power and resources allows us to assume safely that no revolution is expected within the next few months. For the time being, the opposition is still short of a firm and overwhelming support by the population, the West, whose support is important if not crucial, probably has not decided yet whether to sacrifice Saakashvili, and, at last, the opposition has no secret allies in the government agencies as it was during the Rose Revolution and largely predetermined its success. However, the situation may change in the run-up to the elections. Much depends on the ruling party’s political flexibility, and here the litmus test will be amending the current draconian Law on Elections that makes almost impossible for the opposition to win the elections. Meanwhile, a more dangerous scenario may occur. If the anti-governmental actions snowball, the government might stage hostilities in one of the conflict regions – Abkhazia or South Ossetia to draw the society’s attention away from the problems, which are now accumulating in the country.
The thought of Karl Marks that history always repeats itself twice, for the first time as a tragedy, and for the second time as a farce can be fully referred to Georgia’s modern history and the current situation. The society’s idolatry and recurring demand for new chieftains, particularly those who challenge the existing system in the sternest way, and then showing just the same enthusiasm in overthrowing them, has become a feature of the Georgian political culture. It is the cult of the leader that has brought all Georgia’s rulers to power for the last 16 years. Before Irakli Okruashvili, the society was ready to side with the former Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili who withdrew from the government after a row and managed to gather the impressive number of supporters at her first rally. However, her unwillingness to toughly oppose the authorities significantly reduced the number of her adherents. Therefore, the society fastened its eyes on the new potential leader. Irakli Okruashvili was marketing himself to the society as a new leader and strongman even when he was in the office. Probably, that’s why he became estranged from Saakashvili’s entourage, as he himself admitted.
“Only the united people can unite the country”, Irakli Okruashvili said in one of his interviews before the arrest, and this statement is unlikely to be contested to the effect that the efforts made by Georgia’s latest leaders, including Mikheil Saakashvili, to unite the nation had actually failed. Will the prisoner Okruashvili manage to do that?!
October 8, 2007
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