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GEORGIA IN 2008
ARCHIL GEGESHIDZE,
Political scientist, Senior Fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Tbilisi
The year 2008 was the most eventful in the entire history of independent Georgia.
It started with the January presidential election: it was held against a background of the mass protest marches in November 2007.
The November events and the situation with the presidential election divided the society into Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s supporters and opponents. His opponents also included those who did not side with the opposition. Those voters did not share or did not understand the opposition’s views, they had neither their leader nor their party. Today there are still many such people in Georgia.
The political life in 2008 winter was intense: mass protest actions, hunger strikes, etc were held. In May the parliamentary elections were held and in April the NATO summit in Bucharest, which was of importance to Georgia, took place.
The NATO summit in many respects determined the developments in Georgia. Tbilisi was not offered the NATO Membership Action Plan, but it was confirmed that Georgia may join the Alliance in the future. The issue of the Action Plan was postponed for December, 2008.
This urged Russia to do its utmost to prevent Georgia from joining NATO. In 10 days after the summit Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree on rendering assistance (including the potential military assistance) to Georgia's breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The European countries, which were against Georgia's accession to the NATO Membership Action Plan, above all France and Germany, came to realize that their refusal should be compensated. As a result, Javier Solana, European Union High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, visited Georgia for the first time. Before that he did not pay attention to this issue at all. But this time he offered the Georgians nothing and received nothing.
Then Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister, visited Georgia. He brought the plan of settlement of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict, but neither Georgia nor Russia nor Abkhazia were happy with that plan. At the same time Russia continued to draw up its forces to the borders.
August came. The Georgian authorities took some wrong steps with the Russian position’s strengthening the ‘hawks’ in the Georgian government. The war rhetoric was becoming more intense while Russia, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s stances on the treaty of non-renewal of fire did not draw closer.
The Georgian authorities were ready for anything. There was an illusion that if a conflict burst out it would be local. Nobody expected large-scale military operations for which the Georgian army was not ready. The foreign instructors prepared the army for the peacemaking operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, not for large-scale hostilities. The illusion that we could do everything appeared because Georgia wished to start the war and its war rhetoric was no weaker than Russia’s war rhetoric.
Who started the war on August 7, 2008? The question is put wrongly. It is difficult to say who started it because different incidents took place before August 7.
For Georgia the South Ossetian war was the most important event in 2008. It will have a lot of political, military, economical and social consequences. The unprecedentedly high attention to Georgia on the part of the international community is one of the most significant positive consequences. The EU took a direct part in the conflict settlement, which made it possible to put an end to the war.
NATO made it clear that Georgia still has a chance of joining the Alliance. But everybody understood that in December 2008 the positive decision on the NATO Membership Action Plan would not be made. Georgia was not offered the Action Plan but the NATO-Georgia Commission was created. The Georgia-USA Treaty on Strategic Partnership is to be signed soon. All that should compensate Georgia’s non-accession to the NATO Membership Action Plan. Considerable financial assistance is rendered to Georgia. On the one hand, this looks like a success, on the other hand, the prospect of reconciliation and breakaway republics return was postponed for an indefinite period, we have dozens of thousands of refugees and casualties.
As regards the parliamentary elections in May 2008, the opposition was expected to get more votes than during the presidential ones. However, the results fell short of experts' expectations. Almost the one-party parliament was formed. The opposition lost some its protest voters while some other opposition voters did not come to the polling stations. Mikleil Saakashvili and the ruling party’s supporters came to the polling stations.
In 2009 the early elections can become an important event. But for that the opposition should become consolidated and the authorities should give a freer hand to the mass media, hold fair elections and form new election committees (their Western partners may persuade them to do so). In this case the elections will have sense.
The question is whether the elections will be parliamentary or presidential. The authorities may make a concession to the opposition and hold a parliamentary election to remain in power. Then the new Parliament may be still loyal to the President Mikleil Saakashvili.
The Georgia-Russia relations will be gradually restored but we should define what the ‘restoration’ means. We have a lot of problems and the relations cannot be normalized fully. There are no diplomatic relations and official contacts between Georgia and Russia. We suspended the visa issuing, imposed economic sanctions, limited the transportation service, etc. Those connections must be restored and the process will be long and even uncertain to some extent.
While Moscow recognizes the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and keeps its troops there, Georgia looks upon Russia as an aggressor and occupier. There cannot be official relations with occupiers.
December 26, 2008
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