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GEORGIA AFTER THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
ARCHIL GEGESHIDZE,
Political scientist, Senior Fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, Tbilisi
There are several reasons behind the victory of the “United National Movement” in Georgia's parliamentary elections, which took place on May 21. One of them is that the ruling party has drawn the right conclusions from the January presidential election. They chose the right tactics and strategy of the election campaign.
The parliamentary campaign was less obtrusive and calmer than the presidential one, so it did not annoy the electors who had not decided who they would vote for. The same thing held true for the voters who could support the party in power.
Secondly, following the events in November the authorities pursued more society-oriented policy. This was a positive factor too. The people believed the authorities.
According to the opposition, the elections might be rigged, which slipped under the international observers’ radar.
The opposition also made mistakes. The main point was the opposition forces failed to keep their unity. The protest voters wanted to see opposition united.
That’s why they were disappointed. In addition, the opposition program was based purely on criticism and included neither alternative approaches nor the ways to resolve the acute problems. As a result, many opposition backers did not vote. The rest voted for the party in power.
The factor of deterioration of the relations with Russia played into the hands of President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili and his “National Movement”. But it was not a decisive factor in the election.
Thus the election outcome does not reflect the public attitudes in full measure. The ruling party got 80% of the seats in the Parliament, but, as a matter of fact, fewer people support it.
The opposition seeks to take the advantage of that. The forces, which made it past the five-percent barrier, are going to boycott the work of the Parliament. The 26 May opposition rally showed that the protest voters had not exhausted their potential. This indicates that a serious face-off can occur.
The authorities and the international community have to take that into consideration. The opposition may think the authorities will not dare to use force as it was in November 2007. So, the opposition leaders will not make concessions. On the other hand, after gaining the parliamentary majority the authorities may take more drastic measures.
May 29, 2008
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