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FIVE YEARS AFTER THE ROSE REVOLUTION
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi
For the first time, Georgia has not celebrated the anniversary of the Rose Revolution in a traditional pompous way and the authorities have not boasted about their successes as they had done annually on 23 November since 2003.
Whatever they say about the Rose Revolution, it has certainly improved the situation in Georgia in some way. After the Revolution, constant wage and pension arrears have become a thing of the past, the strengthened fiscal discipline has allowed the state budged to be tripled, which made possible to finance some important social and economic programs. The Georgian army has become better equipped and a number of important reforms have been conducted in the various spheres. Given the peaceful development, there could be more achievements with prerequisites for the new ones.
However, by the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution and after the Russia-Georgia armed conflict (the Georgians have different opinions about its reasons), Georgia lost its breakaway regions– Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose independence Russia has recognized. There appear more refugees in Georgia. The lost war has adversely affected all spheres of the Georgians’ life. Ironically, five years after the Rose Revolution the Russian troops are deployed 45 kilometers from Georgia’s capital Tbilisi.
It is the first time President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, in his TV address to the nation over the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution, openly spoke about the government’s mistakes admitting that some of the plans were not implemented and the Revolution did not live up to the Georgians’ expectations in full measure. Mikheil Saakashvili said that the restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity would become complicated in spite of the statements, which he had made after the war with Russia, that Georgia was about to return South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
However, the developments in Georgia show that Mikheil Saakashvili’s admissions of his mistakes and the recently announced liberal measures may be too late. Along with the fact that foreign threats, above all, the pending armed conflict with Russia, are growing, Georgia’s internal political situation is becoming more strained. Several prominent activists of the “Rose Revolution” have gone over to the opposition. This was accompanied by denunciations, which were unpleasant for the authorities and which can excite the society as it was the case last year after a ‘dissident’, former Minister of Defense of Georgia, Irakli Okruashvili had made his denunciations.
One can say that Former and last Georgian ambassador to Russia and one of the major ‘architects’ of the Rose Revolution Erosi Kitsmarishvili struck his former companions-in-arms a blow to their backs. At the hearings held by the interim parliamentary commission for the study of the August events, he actually accused the Georgian government and Mikheil Saakashvili himself of unleashing the war in Tskhinvali with the West’s secret support. It is not known how the authorities can neutralize this ‘information blow’ before the international commission for the study of the August events starts to work. Hardly Kitsmarishvili’s arrest would allow the authorities to hush up the scandal.
The ruling party is losing ground while the opposition appears to launch an offensive. The return of Nino Burjanadze, former chair of the parliament and a former participant of the Rose Revolution triumvirate, to politics worries the ruling party most of all because the talks that the West considers her as one of real alternatives to Mikheil Saakashvili became more frequent.
Nino Burjanadze’s party “Democratic movement – for United Georgia” comes to politics with the slogan “Democracy Today”, which is clear and acceptable to the voters. The party leadership consists mainly of intellectuals with unsullied reputations, who are unknown to the general public. Many people came to the party founding convention on November 23. It looks like history is recurring in Georgia. The strong alternative opposition leaders come from the ruling elite rather than from the society. The same was true for Mikheil Saakashvili under Eduard Shevardnadze’s rule.
Nino Burjanadze put the question point-blank in an unusually harsh form –Mikheil Saakashvili and his team must resign since they have no moral right to remain in power after they lost the war with Russia. Early presidential and parliamentary elections can be held in Georgia and the rise of political temperature is expected by spring 2009 when a new Russia-Georgia conflict is expected to take place.
November 28, 2008
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