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GEORGIAN POLITICIANS MAY FOCUS ON PREPARATION FOR LOCAL ELECTIONS

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GHIA NODIA,
Professor of Ilia Chavchavadze University, director of School of the Caucasian Studies, Tbilisi

The Russia-Georgia armed conflict did not influence Tbilisi’s foreign policy. It is another matter that after the armed conflict serious political changes in the country were more likely to take place than before the 5-day war.

The Georgian non-parliamentary opposition had great expectations as concerns the political changes in the country, which resulted in the opposition manifestations radicalization and demand that President Mikheil Saakashvili should resign.

But those hopes were not realized. The protest actions were numerous but they failed to make Mr Saakashvili resign, the opposition was defeated. The public opinion polls show that during the conflict the President’s approval rating grew, then it fell but now Mikheil Saakashvili enjoys the support of as many people as he did before the war.

The opposition’s defeat has somewhat changed the people’s attitudes. Those who did not like the authorities, and had great expectation for the opposition, were disappointed in the opposition.

After the failure of the opposition’s plans to make Mr Saakashvili step down the Georgian politicians may focus on preparation for local elections, which were brought forward from autumn to the end of May, 2010.

The main elections will be the Tbilisi mayoral elections. They are to be a rehearsal for the presidential elections. Mikheil Saakashvili made it clear that his current presidential term was last for him. A mayoral election favorite will become a presidential hopeful.

The mayoral elections can split the opposition. Some oppositionists would like to run for mayor, the others (radical oppositionists) refuse to do that. As a matter of fact, the radical opposition has no sufficiently popular candidates. For example, the approval rating of Nino Burjanadze, former Speaker of the Parliament, is too low.

Such opposition politicians as Irakli Alasania, Giorgi Targamadze (the parliamentary opposition), Levan Gachechiladze and Gubaz Sanikidze may take part in the elections. Those politicians are popular enough. Gigi Ugulava, the current Tbilisi mayor, may be nominated by the ruling party. Although, for the time being, it is not said openly who will run for mayor.

August 5, 2009




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