Main page                           
Eurasian Home - analytical resource


GEORGIA: CONFRONTATION BETWEEN MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI AND THE OPPOSITION

Print version

GHIA NODIA,
Political Scientist, Director of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi

I believe that there is no drastic difference between the two strategies to which President Mikheil Saakashvili and the opposition can adhere on the threshold of the parliamentary elections, which will be held in spring 2008. The first strategy consists in the negotiations between the President and the opposition, the efforts to carry on a dialogue and to co-opt the opposition onto the governmental agencies. The second one consists in the opposition’s unwillingness to get in touch with the authorities and refusal to carry on the negotiations. 

As a matter of fact, the talks between the authorities and the opposition are conducted from time to time. It is possible that some opposition members will join the government. Saakashvili has repeatedly mentioned such possibility. At the same time, this will not change the opposition’s opinion in essence. The parliamentary elections are not far off and the opposition does not want to be calm. On the contrary, by stepping up its efforts, the opposition would be able to mobilize its supporters and voters. 

So, the opposition will continue to state that it does not recognize the results of the presidential election held on January 5. But this is nothing but a tactical move and an element of the parliamentary campaign. The consistent non-recognition of the presidential election results would lead to a civil war. The opposition is not going to allow that to happen. It sets the authorities no deadlines. The opposition seeks to mobilize the protest voters by the parliamentary elections.  

Non-recognition of the presidential election results is one of the opposition’s trump cards. So, I do not think that the opposition will make serious concessions to the authorities. The opposition conducted the presidential campaign successfully. Saakashvili was close to losing the elections, that’s why the concessions made in the run-up to the parliamentary elections would be taken as the opposition’s weakness. 

As regards the opposition’s consolidation and even the formation of the single electoral list, theoretically it is possible. However, the opposition is unlikely to be united in future. The Labour party members prefer to act separately from the other opposition forces. The potential lowering of the threshold up to 5 percent also will not create favorable conditions for uniting the opposition, since many politicians can believe that they can get over that threshold. The alliance between the New Right-Wingers and the United opposition headed by Levan Gachechiladze may be formed. But later some parties might withdraw from the United opposition. 

After the parliamentary elections the situation will change drastically. It is possible that the opposition wins. So, the consolidated opposition would be present in the Parliament that will oppose the President. The face-off between the opposition and Saakashvili will be a consolidating factor. Later on, this conflict can result in the dissolution of the Parliament and holding early elections.   

If the opposition wins the parliamentary elections in spring, the government can be formed with the participation of the opposition members. Before the elections, the opposition leaders will not join the government. After the elections they may do so, because the opposition can change its rhetoric. The opposition members may say that this is a coalition government, whose formation is the acknowledgement of the opposition’s success in the parliamentary elections rather than a sop from Saakashvili.  

January 15, 2008




Our readers’ comments



There are no comments on this article.

You will be the first.

Send a comment

Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Digest

25.01.2008

EURASIANET.ORG: GEORGIA: PM ANNOUNCES CABINET SHAKE-UP

In a long-expected move, Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze announced on January 24 a large-scale cabinet reorganization.

18.01.2008

IWPR: GEORGIAN OPPOSITION KEEPS UP PRESSURE

The municipal authorities in Tbilisi have refused a request by the opposition to hold a rally on Rustaveli Avenue on the day of the inauguration. Instead, the opposition alliance says it will hold a protest at the city hippodrome.

14.01.2008

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: SAAKASHVILI WON THE REGIONS, GACHECHILADZE TAKES TBILISI

Most international observers deemed the election essentially democratic, and foreign heads of states have already called to congratulate Saakashvili on his reelection.

25.12.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: WITH OR WITHOUT RUSSIA?

The foreign policy priorities of the presidential candidates. Most put Euro-Atlantic and NATO integration front and center, but good relations with Russia is, for some, another major consideration.

16.12.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: NATIONAL VOTE: SHOULD GEORGIA BECOME A MEMBER OF NATO?

Georgian voters will have to answer a question if Georgia should become a member of NATO at the January 5th plebiscite, which will be held alongside the presidential poll.

04.12.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: 22 CANDIDATES STAND FOR PRESIDENCY

Some political analysts reckon that the participation of 22 candidates in such a small country is not a common thing. It means that the political responsibility of Georgian culture is too low.

30.11.2007

IWPR: TV AT HEART OF GEORGIAN CRISIS

With Georgia gearing up for a presidential election campaign in January and a degree of normality returning after the recent crisis, the Imedi television station remains at the centre of national and international controversy.

26.11.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: PRESIDENTIAL PROGRAMS EMERGE AS SAAKASHVILI PREPARES FOR RESIGNATION

In independent Georgia’s history, this will be the first election where voters will be asked to focus on the programs, slogans and promises of the candidates.

22.11.2007

RFE/RL: COLORED REVOLUTIONS: HIGH HOPES AND BROKEN PROMISES

As anniversaries of the events in Georgia and Ukraine approach, high hopes and great expectations have been replaced with apprehension.

19.11.2007

EURASIANET.ORG: GEORGIA GETS NEW PRIME MINISTER

In an apparent bid to reduce potential support for opposition candidates in Georgia’s upcoming special presidential election, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is reshuffling his government.

09.11.2007

RFE/RL: GEORGIA: AFTER CRACKDOWN ON PROTESTS, PRESIDENT CALLS EARLY POLLS

Saakashvili appeared to offer a concession to his political opponents. He announced he would schedule early presidential elections, moving the vote from next autumn to January 5, 2008.

02.11.2007

RFE/RL: GEORGIA SEES LARGEST PROTEST RALLY SINCE ROSE REVOLUTION

Tens of thousands of protesters have turned out in Tbilisi for the largest opposition rally since the 2003 Rose Revolution swept pro-Western Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to power.

15.10.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: IS A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT THE ONLY WAY OUT FOR GEORGIA?

While the opposition-minded Republican Party insists on a semi-presidential model, the New Rights and others hail the idea of a constitutional monarchy.

01.10.2007

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: GEORGIA ON FIRE?

Thousands of peoples took to the streets last week to protest Okruashvili’s arrest and the demonstrations are likely to continue this week.


Expert forum
STAINED “NEW LEAF” IN THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

31.01.2008

Mikheil Saakashvili once again extends hand of friendship to Russia and proposes to “turn over a new leaf” in bilateral relations.


POLITICAL SITUATION IN GEORGIA AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

MALKHAZ SALDADZE

30.01.2008

In spite of Mikheil Saakashvili’s initiative to offer the opposition politicians posts in the government, nothing was done in this direction. Apparently, neither the authorities nor the opposition were ready for such a turn.  


WILL THE VECTOR OF RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS CHANGE?

SERGEI MARKEDONOV

24.01.2008

It is unlikely that after the election President Mikheil Saakashvili has changed his position on Georgian-Russian relations. For the time being, the statements about his wish to normalize those relations cannot be taken seriously.


THE PRESIDENTIAL POLLS TOOK PLACE IN GEORGIA

DAVID BERDZENISHVILI

10.01.2008

The Georgian opposition believes that Mikheil Saakashvili is not a legitimate President. Those polls were rigged everywhere. In the large regional centers Saakashvili took less than 50 percent of the vote.


FOR HOW LONG WILL THEY HIDE THE CAT IN A BAG?

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

24.12.2007

Mikheil Saakashvili who is seeking re-election to the second term in office as President of Georgia must be very lucky. The resolution of the issue concerning recognition of Kosovo’s independence by the West, which was due on December 10, has been postponed, even if not for long.


GEORGIA IN THE RUN-UP TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

KONSTANTIN GABASHVILI, IVLIAN KHAINDRAVA

24.12.2007

"You perfectly know what the administrative resource is and can suggest what budget resources are being spent on Mr. Saakashvili’s election campaign, " said Ivlian Khaindrava.


TV COMPANY “IMEDI” RESUMES ITS BROADCASTING IN GEORGIA

GIORGI TARGAMADZE

13.12.2007

The Georgian government continues to put serious pressure on the journalists, editors and producers of the “IMEDI” company. Officials are using all the ways, for example, blackmailing and intimidating of the people including their relatives and families.


IS THE “BEACON OF LIBERTY” DYING OUT?

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

06.12.2007

The “Beacon of Liberty”, that, to believe U.S. President George Bush, Georgia embodied in May 2005, when he made a visit  to the country, is dying out, even though the West does not want to believe that and continues to give Saakashvili and his government a helping hand.


PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA

SHALVA NATELASHVILI

03.12.2007

As long as Mikheil Saakashvili stays in power, Georgia will be a superpresidential republic. So, it is necessary to elect a new President who would abolish this vicious system. But there are other questions. Which kind of a republic do we need? What powers should the President have? Who will elect him?


PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA

MALKHAZ SALDADZE

03.12.2007

If to take into account the control of the mass media by the propresidential United National Movement and the authorities’ monopoly on the financial and administrative resources, Saakashvili’s position is more advantageous than that of his rivals.


MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI’S FIRST VISIT AS PRESIDENT WAS TO MOSCOW NOT WASHINGTON

GIGA BOKERIA

23.11.2007

No democratic Georgian government will ever agree with Abkhazia’s independence, because in this territory a few people with the assistance of the large neighboring state and the military aggressively hoisted the flag of ethnic nationalism.


GEORGIA'S UNITED OPPOSITION AGAINST MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI

LEVAN GACHECHILADZE

23.11.2007

When I become President, Georgia will continue to be West- and NATO-oriented. I think it is the only way for a democratic country. I am also going to give great attention to the development of good-neighborly relations with Russia.


GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN GEORGIA

SERGEI MARKEDONOV

20.11.2007

There is no alternative to the incumbent president Mikheil Saakashvili in the forthcoming presidential polls in Georgia. Like it or not, he stands to win the forthcoming elections. The opposition cannot compete with Saakashvili. 


GEORGIA TO HOLD EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

ALEXANDER RONDELI

15.11.2007

The Georgian people do not want destabilization of the situation. So, channeling political activity into election campaign would stabilize the situation. In short, the force that swings the presidential polls, will make it into the Parliament.  


OPPOSITION RALLIES IN GEORGIA

MERAB PACHULIA

15.11.2007

The collective distaste for Saakashvili has brought a wide segment of the society together and people have closed ranks for common objectives – free elections, rule of law, a system where the power of one person can be held in check.

GEORGIA: CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE AUTHORITIES AND THE OPPOSITION

DAVID BERDZENISHVILI

14.11.2007

The international organizations severely criticize the Georgian authorities’ actions - their means of breaking up the rally and suppression of the TV channels “Imedi”, “Kavkasia”. All in all, the Georgian President has reached a deadlock. 


GEORGIAN UNITED OPPOSITION VERSUS SAAKASHVILI

GHIA NODIA

07.11.2007

Now the Georgian opposition needs a leader who can be an alternative to the current President. I doubt that the opposition’s sponsor Badri Patarkatsishvili can become such an alternative leader. Okruashvili is a more attractive political figure.


IS GEORGIA ON THE BRINK OF A NEW CIVIL CONFRONTATION?

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

16.10.2007

Barely had the Saakashvili’s team got rid of Okruashvili, when a much stronger opponent, oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili, who is expected to become leader of the united opposition, came up as a new opponent to Saakashvili.  


OPPOSITION MARCHES IN GEORGIA

ALEXANDER RONDELI

08.10.2007

Irakli Okruashvili was afraid of being arrested and decided to pursue a preemptive tactic making accusations against Mikheil Saakashvili. We do not know which of his accusations are true and which are false.


THE OKRUASHVILI FACTOR

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

08.10.2007

Irakli Okruashvili may use his arrest as the political dividend that he lacked until recently. Now he is unlikely to be reproached for the implicit connections with the authorities, as it was often done in recent times.



Author’s opinion on other topics

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN ABKHAZIA: HOW TBILISI SEES IT

29 October 2009

The preparation for the presidential elections in Abkhazia and the nomination of Sergei Bagapsh for the presidency are important political events, but in Georgia they are of interest only to political analysts in terms of understanding the Abkhaz society’s attitudes.


GEORGIAN POLITICIANS MAY FOCUS ON PREPARATION FOR LOCAL ELECTIONS

05 August 2009

After the failure of the opposition’s plans to make Mr Saakashvili step down the Georgian politicians may focus on preparation for local elections, which were brought forward from autumn to the end of May, 2010.


“GEORGIAN AUTHORITIES ARE NOT GOING TO MAKE SERIOUS CONCESSIONS TO OPPOSITION”

13 May 2009

The Georgian opposition has been holding the protest actions for over a month. The protest started subsiding after several days of mass rallies in April. However, after the 7 May physical skirmish between the police and the opposition the protests recommenced.


“GEORGIAN OPPOSITION IS READY TO ACT”

09 April 2009

The opposition rally started in Georgia on April 9. The opposition leaders are sure that they will make President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili resign, and the early elections will be called.


“NIKOLOZ GILAURI IS ONE OF THE MOST EXPERIENCED MINISTERS”

06 February 2009

Frequent changes of Prime Ministers are good for the opposition members. They can criticize the authorities more actively, talk about the instability in the country, but they do not care who will be the next Prime Minister.


GEORGIAN UNITED OPPOSITION VERSUS SAAKASHVILI

07 November 2007

Now the Georgian opposition needs a leader who can be an alternative to the current President. I doubt that the opposition’s sponsor Badri Patarkatsishvili can become such an alternative leader. Okruashvili is a more attractive political figure.


SOUTH OSSETIA STATUS: LOOKING FOR A NEW APPROACH

26 July 2007

On July 24 Tbilisi hosted the first meeting of the State Committee on the status of South Ossetia. The Committee is intended to work out an approach to resolving the argument about South Ossetia’s status that would be acceptable both to Georgia and South Ossetia. 


ABKHAZIA APPEALS TO THE WORLD COMMUNITY FOR RECOGNITION OF ITS INDEPENDENCE

06 December 2006

Abkhazia, an unrecognized republic of Georgia, held December 6 a “national gathering” to express its will to gain independence.


DETENTION OF THE RUSSIAN OFFICERS IN GEORGIA

10 October 2006

One cannot say for sure if the Russian military officers accused of espionage and detained by Georgian authorities are guilty or not. But on the whole, it is impossible to disclaim the (Russian - EH) intelligence activities.


GEORGIA: ARRESTS OF THE OPPOSITION LEADERS

07 September 2006

Georgian political organizations, whose members were arrested on September 6, can’t be considered to be a classical opposition.


GEORGIA: OPERATION IN THE KODORI GORGE

26 July 2006

As regards Abkhazia, Georgia is not going to undertake a military operation in that region. At least this idea does not enjoy a wide public support.


THE BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN OIL PIPELINE WITH REGARD TO THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS

12 July 2006

I believe that Georgia is not very enthusiastic about putting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into operation. This project is of importance to Georgia in terms of politics rather than economy.

 events
 news
 opinion
 expert forum
 digest
 hot topics
 analysis
 databases
 about us
 the Eurasia Heritage Foundation projects
 links
 our authors
Eurasia Heritage Foundation