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GEORGIA: CONFRONTATION BETWEEN MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI AND THE OPPOSITION
GHIA NODIA,
Political Scientist, Director of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi
I believe that there is no drastic difference between the two strategies to which President Mikheil Saakashvili and the opposition can adhere on the threshold of the parliamentary elections, which will be held in spring 2008. The first strategy consists in the negotiations between the President and the opposition, the efforts to carry on a dialogue and to co-opt the opposition onto the governmental agencies. The second one consists in the opposition’s unwillingness to get in touch with the authorities and refusal to carry on the negotiations.
As a matter of fact, the talks between the authorities and the opposition are conducted from time to time. It is possible that some opposition members will join the government. Saakashvili has repeatedly mentioned such possibility. At the same time, this will not change the opposition’s opinion in essence. The parliamentary elections are not far off and the opposition does not want to be calm. On the contrary, by stepping up its efforts, the opposition would be able to mobilize its supporters and voters.
So, the opposition will continue to state that it does not recognize the results of the presidential election held on January 5. But this is nothing but a tactical move and an element of the parliamentary campaign. The consistent non-recognition of the presidential election results would lead to a civil war. The opposition is not going to allow that to happen. It sets the authorities no deadlines. The opposition seeks to mobilize the protest voters by the parliamentary elections.
Non-recognition of the presidential election results is one of the opposition’s trump cards. So, I do not think that the opposition will make serious concessions to the authorities. The opposition conducted the presidential campaign successfully. Saakashvili was close to losing the elections, that’s why the concessions made in the run-up to the parliamentary elections would be taken as the opposition’s weakness.
As regards the opposition’s consolidation and even the formation of the single electoral list, theoretically it is possible. However, the opposition is unlikely to be united in future. The Labour party members prefer to act separately from the other opposition forces. The potential lowering of the threshold up to 5 percent also will not create favorable conditions for uniting the opposition, since many politicians can believe that they can get over that threshold. The alliance between the New Right-Wingers and the United opposition headed by Levan Gachechiladze may be formed. But later some parties might withdraw from the United opposition.
After the parliamentary elections the situation will change drastically. It is possible that the opposition wins. So, the consolidated opposition would be present in the Parliament that will oppose the President. The face-off between the opposition and Saakashvili will be a consolidating factor. Later on, this conflict can result in the dissolution of the Parliament and holding early elections.
If the opposition wins the parliamentary elections in spring, the government can be formed with the participation of the opposition members. Before the elections, the opposition leaders will not join the government. After the elections they may do so, because the opposition can change its rhetoric. The opposition members may say that this is a coalition government, whose formation is the acknowledgement of the opposition’s success in the parliamentary elections rather than a sop from Saakashvili.
January 15, 2008
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