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GEORGIA: OPERATION IN THE KODORI GORGE

GHIA NODIA,
Political Scientist, Director of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi, Georgia

Georgia’s undertaking the special operation in the Kodori Gorge is no doubt of great concern to the Georgian society.

But on the whole, the majority of the population expresses negative criticism to the military group of Emzar Kvitsiani, who opposes the establishment of the state control over his detachment. That’s why the Georgian authorities’ actions on disbandment of this group are considered fair.

The final assessment will depend on the operation’s effectiveness. Two options are possible. It is easy to guess that in case of a fast and efficient operation the Georgian society will positively react to the authorities’ work.

If the conflict is being extended and developed into a large-scale armed confrontation, then the stand of those advocating the conflict settlement through negotiations, will dominate. In this case the people’s feelings might switch to negative.

With all that, I’m still not convinced that the conflict in the Kodori Gorge may be regarded as the first step towards military actions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The situation in Abkhazia is a separate issue and a problem that is not directly connected with Kvitsiani’s group. On the whole, the Georgians are against the escalation of the Kodori conflict, with it covering the entire Abkhazia.

Now it is difficult to forecast the scenario. On the one hand, the conflict in the Kodori Gorge is a local problem that can be solved quickly. On the other hand, the conflict may become a provocation for drawing Georgia into the military confrontation. It comes natural that Georgia does not want it.

There is no telling how the public opinion will change if a military operation occurs in South Ossetia. With such a scenario the society is likely to be split into two camps – the adversaries and adherents of the military operation.

As regards Abkhazia, Georgia is not going to undertake a military operation in that region. At least this idea does not enjoy a wide public support.

July 26, 2006

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