BORIS KAGARLITSKY, MOSCOW
CONVERSATION WITH A GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL
I would like to confess my grave sin: I have several acquaintances among government officials. Some of them are really high-ranking. This is terrible for an oppositionist, but it is the case.
I have recently visited one of my acquaintances who has been extremely depressed. Of course, the Russian bureaucrats often complain of their living and I heard such words as “You, intellectuals, are lucky! You can speak whatever comes to your minds” many times. However, there was no reaction when I offered those officials to try walking in my shoes.
But this time the situation was completely different. My interlocutor was really in despair. We talked about the financial crisis and then he began to criticize the authorities (Russian President, Prime Minister and his colleagues) bitterly. He said that the government had wasted 8 good years, squandered “oil money” and now all their decisions are wrong.
All in all, the things will go from bad to worse.
The real officials’ attitudes differ radically from the reassuring statements they make on every occasion. Incidentally, those statements are becoming more and more discrepant. At first the government tells us that there will be no devaluation of ruble, then it has already made the decision on devaluation and, later on, it says that it has meant nothing of the kind. At first the officials promise to protect the domestic industry, then they speak about the free market, which will improve the situation with its invisible hand. The government says that it will suspend the talks on Russia’s joining the WTO and then the officials boast of the successes they scored during the talks.
The authorities’ illogicality is explained not only by their perplexity and inconsistency but also by lack of unity of views and actions. In March 2008, against a background of skyrocketing oil prices, the authorities fed the people with liberal promises hinting that they could make serious concessions to the opposition and consoling the West with the prospect of political rapprochement. In August, as a result of the Russia-Georgia conflict, the Russian government not only made anti-West and anti-liberal statements, but also took some decisions highlighting the formation of the new foreign policy: Russia’s refusal to negotiate about joining the WTO, rapprochement with Venezuela and the Russia-Venezuela military exercises turned the Kremlin leaders into almost antiglobalists. But in several months the financial meltdown and cheaper oil forced the Russian government to please the Western elite by hook or by crook and to copy all its moves (or rather to honestly repeat all its mistakes). At this background the authorities say that the parliamentary system would be bad for Russia and the current President of Russia proposes extending the presidential term of office, which was out of the question in September. However, the previous policy is neither criticized nor revised. That’s why the government promised to join the WTO as soon as possible and immediately after that it promised not to join the Organization. The authorities express solidarity with the West and, at the same time, continue the anti-American rhetoric. They suggest liberal political ideas and, simultaneously, try to make the regime more authoritarian.
It is clear that the current authorities are maneuvering but they are doing that unsuccessfully, inconsistently and unreasonably. Such maneuvers would break up the ranks even of the famous grenadiers of Friedrich the Great, the Prussian king. The Russian officials do not resemble the Prussian infantry battalion. They cannot maneuver so quickly. Problems arise everywhere. The authorities start programs that are at odds with their activities and they launch propaganda campaigns that are contrary to their own statements. As a result, some of the government officials step down, others stop understanding what is happening, still others become demoralized and refuse to do anything.
The bureaucracy is a very inertial institution, so one cannot treat it in this way. The authorities’ regarding the increasing government chaos as a result of the officials’ incompetence rather than of their own inefficiency leads to the ministerial reshuffles that may grow into real cleansing. Of course, this demoralizes the officials more and more. The bureaucrats do not realize what is going on, and more than that, they do not know what is in store for them. Therefore, the bureaucrats become less loyal to the higher-ranking officials. Many are planning to change their jobs or to start playing their own games.
In such a bureaucratic state as Russia, the government’s breakup or demoralization are fraught with very serious consequences. For a country, the government officials’ panic and confusion are much more dangerous than intrigues of its worst enemies.
In this sense, the lessons of history are very instructive. Something like this was in the last years of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.
But do not think that I hint at something.
Boris Kagarlitsky is Director of the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements
November 26, 2008
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