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WILL THE VECTOR OF RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS CHANGE?
SERGEI MARKEDONOV,
Head of the International Relations Department of the Institute for Policy and Military Analysis, Moscow
It is unlikely that after the election President Mikheil Saakashvili has changed his position on Georgian-Russian relations. For the time being, the statements about his wish to normalize those relations cannot be taken seriously. Rhetoric and emotions cannot lay the groundwork for relations, so far we lack the groundwork.
Should I remind you how President Saakashvili behaved after the elections in 2004? The situation was the same. Saakashvili proposed that Georgia and Russian should be on friendly terms with each other, thanked Russia for its sound and sober position on the “Rose Revolution” and the situation in Adjara. Some Russian mass media held Saakashvili up as an example of the fighter against corruption. One could say that there was a kind of “honeymoon” in the relations between the two countries.
But as we know, the “honeymoon” didn’t last long. The crisis in South Ossetia occurred and tough statements about Abkhazia and South Ossetia were made. So, all the statements about friendship should be backed by actions. How can the Russian-Georgian relations improve in addressing the issue of South Ossetia and Abkhazia? NATO question is also left open, in particular, as the Georgian population, one can say, voted for NATO membership at the referendum on January 5.
It should be understood that Saakashvili is a pragmatic policy-maker. True, the Russians’ opinion about him is totally different, and they are wrong. Should Russia make substantial concessions to Georgia on the South Ossetian and Abkhazian issues, Saakashvili could even become a pro-Russian politician. In the 1990s some Russian generals took a more pro-Georgian stand that the local military did.
It is another matter that the Abkhazian and South Ossetian issues will have repercussions for the whole Caucasus. Therefore Russia cannot afford to make serious concessions. Russia may moderate its position partially and act as an arbiter in the conflict settlements. But it cannot change its position drastically.
So, in the sphere of frozen conflicts there is no ground for relations improvement. But there is such a ground in other fields - economy, transport, education, etc.
As regards the mitigation of Saakashvili’s rhetoric with respect to the opposition, it comes quite logical. The presidential election showed that the opposition is strong, that it is not a cluster of fringe politicians. According to the official election returns, Saakashvili took slightly more than 50 percent of the vote. He cannot ignore such a strong opposition.
I would like to note the behavior of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who, after the election, met not only with the elected President, but also with the opposition. Such political move is a rare occurrence and a good example. I believe that we must behave like this in all the new independent states, for example, in Armenia where the presidential election will take place in February. Many Russian policy-makers do not consider it necessary to get in touch with the Armenian opposition. This is wrong because no matter whether the leader of one or another state supports Russia or not, first and foremost he takes his own interests into account. That is typical of all the leaders of the post-Soviet states.
January 24, 2008
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Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Digest
18.01.2008
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IWPR: GEORGIAN OPPOSITION KEEPS UP PRESSURE
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The municipal authorities in Tbilisi have refused a request by the opposition to hold a rally on Rustaveli Avenue on the day of the inauguration. Instead, the opposition alliance says it will hold a protest at the city hippodrome.
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25.12.2007
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THE GEORGIAN TIMES: WITH OR WITHOUT RUSSIA?
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The foreign policy priorities of the presidential candidates. Most put Euro-Atlantic and NATO integration front and center, but good relations with Russia is, for some, another major consideration.
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04.12.2007
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THE GEORGIAN TIMES: 22 CANDIDATES STAND FOR PRESIDENCY
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Some political analysts reckon that the participation of 22 candidates in such a small country is not a common thing. It means that the political responsibility of Georgian culture is too low.
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30.11.2007
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IWPR: TV AT HEART OF GEORGIAN CRISIS
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With Georgia gearing up for a presidential election campaign in January and a degree of normality returning after the recent crisis, the Imedi television station remains at the centre of national and international controversy.
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19.11.2007
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EURASIANET.ORG: GEORGIA GETS NEW PRIME MINISTER
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In an apparent bid to reduce potential support for opposition candidates in Georgia’s upcoming special presidential election, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is reshuffling his government.
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01.10.2007
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THE GEORGIAN TIMES: GEORGIA ON FIRE?
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Thousands of peoples took to the streets last week to protest Okruashvili’s arrest and the demonstrations are likely to continue this week.
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Expert forum
POLITICAL SITUATION IN GEORGIA AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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MALKHAZ SALDADZE
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30.01.2008
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In spite of Mikheil Saakashvili’s initiative to offer the opposition politicians posts in the government, nothing was done in this direction. Apparently, neither the authorities nor the opposition were ready for such a turn.
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THE PRESIDENTIAL POLLS TOOK PLACE IN GEORGIA
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DAVID BERDZENISHVILI
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10.01.2008
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The Georgian opposition believes that Mikheil Saakashvili is not a legitimate President. Those polls were rigged everywhere. In the large regional centers Saakashvili took less than 50 percent of the vote.
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FOR HOW LONG WILL THEY HIDE THE CAT IN A BAG?
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ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE
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24.12.2007
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Mikheil Saakashvili who is seeking re-election to the second term in office as President of Georgia must be very lucky. The resolution of the issue concerning recognition of Kosovo’s independence by the West, which was due on December 10, has been postponed, even if not for long.
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TV COMPANY “IMEDI” RESUMES ITS BROADCASTING IN GEORGIA
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GIORGI TARGAMADZE
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13.12.2007
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The Georgian government continues to put serious pressure on the journalists, editors and producers of the “IMEDI” company. Officials are using all the ways, for example, blackmailing and intimidating of the people including their relatives and families.
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IS THE “BEACON OF LIBERTY” DYING OUT?
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ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE
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06.12.2007
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The “Beacon of Liberty”, that, to believe U.S. President George Bush, Georgia embodied in May 2005, when he made a visit to the country, is dying out, even though the West does not want to believe that and continues to give Saakashvili and his government a helping hand.
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PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA
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SHALVA NATELASHVILI
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03.12.2007
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As long as Mikheil Saakashvili stays in power, Georgia will be a superpresidential republic. So, it is necessary to elect a new President who would abolish this vicious system. But there are other questions. Which kind of a republic do we need? What powers should the President have? Who will elect him?
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PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA
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MALKHAZ SALDADZE
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03.12.2007
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If to take into account the control of the mass media by the propresidential United National Movement and the authorities’ monopoly on the financial and administrative resources, Saakashvili’s position is more advantageous than that of his rivals.
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GEORGIA'S UNITED OPPOSITION AGAINST MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI
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LEVAN GACHECHILADZE
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23.11.2007
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When I become President, Georgia will continue to be West- and NATO-oriented. I think it is the only way for a democratic country. I am also going to give great attention to the development of good-neighborly relations with Russia.
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OPPOSITION RALLIES IN GEORGIA
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MERAB PACHULIA
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15.11.2007
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The collective distaste for Saakashvili has brought a wide segment of the society together and people have closed ranks for common objectives – free elections, rule of law, a system where the power of one person can be held in check.
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GEORGIA: CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE AUTHORITIES AND THE OPPOSITION
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DAVID BERDZENISHVILI
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14.11.2007
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The international organizations severely criticize the Georgian authorities’ actions - their means of breaking up the rally and suppression of the TV channels “Imedi”, “Kavkasia”. All in all, the Georgian President has reached a deadlock.
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GEORGIAN UNITED OPPOSITION VERSUS SAAKASHVILI
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GHIA NODIA
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07.11.2007
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Now the Georgian opposition needs a leader who can be an alternative to the current President. I doubt that the opposition’s sponsor Badri Patarkatsishvili can become such an alternative leader. Okruashvili is a more attractive political figure.
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IS GEORGIA ON THE BRINK OF A NEW CIVIL CONFRONTATION?
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16.10.2007
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Barely had the Saakashvili’s team got rid of Okruashvili, when a much stronger opponent, oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili, who is expected to become leader of the united opposition, came up as a new opponent to Saakashvili.
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OPPOSITION MARCHES IN GEORGIA
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ALEXANDER RONDELI
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08.10.2007
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Irakli Okruashvili was afraid of being arrested and decided to pursue a preemptive tactic making accusations against Mikheil Saakashvili. We do not know which of his accusations are true and which are false.
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GEORGIA’S WAY TO NATO STREAMLINED
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ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE
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19.02.2007
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Members of the “National Forum” and some other opposition parties fear that Georgia may join NATO without Abkhazia and South Ossetia, thus losing those territories for good.
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Author’s opinion on other topics
THERE ARE NO PRO-RUSSIAN POLITICIANS IN GEORGIA
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19 May 2009
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What does the current situation in Georgia mean for Russia? On the one hand, the confrontation between the government and the opposition is Georgia’s domestic affair. Whoever wins the struggle, no one would take a pro-Russian position.
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FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ROSE REVOLUTION
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25 November 2008
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The main reason why the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution is not celebrated with a great pomp is that the Georgians are bitterly disappointed with the results of the revolution. In fact, nobody was going to carry out democratic reforms, although the ‘revolutionaries’ had set themselves this goal.
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SUMMING UP THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING ON GEORGIA
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25 July 2008
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I believe that the withdrawal of the Russian railroad troops from Abkhazia and the UN Security Council meeting, which was held on July 21 at Georgia’s request, cannot be directly linked to each other.
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GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN GEORGIA
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20 November 2007
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There is no alternative to the incumbent president Mikheil Saakashvili in the forthcoming presidential polls in Georgia. Like it or not, he stands to win the forthcoming elections. The opposition cannot compete with Saakashvili.
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RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
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01 March 2006
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I would like to analyze the deadlock crisis in the Russian-Georgian relations and to suggest a way out of this crisis.
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ABKHAZIA: NEW EASTERN POLICY
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29 July 2005
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The Georgian minister on conflict settlement, Giorgi Khaindrava, called the recent meeting between the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia a "statehood game." While Georgian officials continue to describe political developments in the breakaway republics in this way, Abkhazia is taking a number of very important political steps that may give its cause a boost.
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RUSSIA AND THE CAUCASUS REGION
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28 June 2005
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Nagorno-Karabakh was the first ethnic conflict that shook the foundations of the political power "vertical" of the Soviet Union and became the detonator that exploded it. It enriched our active political vocabulary with such terms as "ethnic cleansing" and "cleansing of the territory." As a result of the Armenian-Azeri conflict over Karabakh, about 500,000 Armenians had to leave Azerbaijan, and about 200,000 Azerbaijanis had to leave Armenia. Both states (particularly Armenia) have essentially become homogenous mono-ethnic entities. During the armed clashes over Karabakh, Azerbaijan lost 13% of its original territory.
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RUSSIAN - GEORGIAN RELATIONS
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19 June 2005
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Russia's relations with Georgia are one of the most cute and problematic aspects of foreign policy in the Caucasus. Previously "fraternal," i.e. former Soviet republic, Georgia has become one of Moscow's most intractable partners in the former Soviet space.
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CAUCASUS IN THE GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT
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28 May 2005
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The Russian military presence in Georgia has become the key issue of the Caucasian Big Game in the last few months. Discussions of the timeframe and speed of their withdrawal from Georgia overshadowed the problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
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CENTRAL ASIA IN THE GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT
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28 May 2005
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Many people in Russia see America's presence in the post-Soviet (Eurasian) area as virtually an attempt to end Russia's national sovereignty. Alexander Dugin, a prominent theoretician of Russian traditionalism, recently said the United States was trying to penetrate the "canonical territory" of Russian diplomacy. However, the military-political presence of the world's No.1 superpower in some ex-Soviet republics might become an important stabilizing factor.
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