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GEORGIA IS PREPARING FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
DAVID LOSABERIDZE,
Project Manager, member of the Executive Council of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi
I do not think that the parliamentary elections in Georgia and the deterioration of the Russian-Georgian relations are interconnected. In Russia the elections have already took place, in Georgia the elections will be conducted on May 21, so there is a ground for using the deterioration of bilateral relations as political leverage. But this is not a crucial issue for the Georgian election campaign, since for all the domestic conflicts, the Georgian political forces have a consensus – the absolute majority of them are Western-oriented.
Still, the anti-Russian rhetoric is voiced. But it is used as a consolidating factor, aimed at national attitudes and is not directly linked to the elections. On the other hand, the worsening of the relations can have an emotional implication that is related to hostility. This is a more complicated situation.
Moreover, Russia is in the greatest difficulty than anybody else. The issue of the Georgian-Russian relations is being discussed by the European politicians. When at the NATO summit in Bucharest Georgia was not welcomed to join NATO Membership Action Plan, Europe hoped that from then on Russia would support the status quo. But Russia has done the opposite, undermining the status quo. This move was not expected by Europe and struck at Russia’s position and image in the European countries.
In terms of the parliamentary campaign, the Georgia's ruling party has one serious problem – its approval rating is falling. This is due to the lack of clear strategy rather than to the unpopular reforms. But if such clear political strategy exists in some areas, the ruling party and the government do nothing to bring it home to the people.
The opposition tries to take advantage of that. But there is no considering the opposition as a single whole. The opposition has no clear political program. True, recently the opposition parties have tried to give their views on some issues. But on the whole, they seek to become more popular by criticizing the authorities and by taking populist steps.
I believe that even if the opposition parties get the majority in the Parliament, this will not cause a clash between the President and the new Parliament. Firstly, it will be difficult for the opposition to show a united front in the Parliament. Secondly, the tougher the opposition members will behave, the more this will play into the President’s hands. For example, the Parliament’s refusal to approve the government or to pass the budget will give the President occasion to dissolve it and hold the early elections.
May 12, 2008
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