NEITHER THE U.S.A., NOR RUSSIA ARE INTERESTED IN THE ESCALATION OF POLITICAL CONFLICT IN GEORGIA
DAVID LOSABERIDZE,
Program director, member of the Executive Council of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi
The situation in Georgia will be one of the issues of the negotiations between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. President Barack Obama which will be held on July 6 in Moscow. A different matter is how far the talks over Georgia will be made public – negotiations about the situation in Georgia can take place behind closed doors.
The maximum outcome of the talks is the sides will hold their standpoints; we shouldn’t expect any breakthrough in these negotiations. I don’t think that the parties will make concessions to each other.
The U.S.A. and other Western states do not recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia also can’t revoke the fact of the independence recognition; this step won’t be accepted by the Russian society. Moreover, the U.S.A. is more than Russia interested in the prolongation of the current situation in those republics. Having recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia stepped on the way of the Caucasus, and even more, of the post-Soviet area disintegration. The military conflict of August 2008 against Georgia will backfire on Russia. And such regimes as now exist in Chechnya won’t lessen disintegration tendencies in Russia.
What concerns the confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition in Georgia, Russia and U.S. views should coincide: neither the U.S.A., nor Russia are interested in the conflict escalation in Georgia. It’s naive to think, that pro-Russian political forces will come to power in case of changing of the government in Georgia. On the other side Mikheil Saakashvili’s positions strengthening also doesn’t provide Russia a guarantee of more acquiescence.
Washington doesn’t hope that a constant democrat will come to power in Georgia. So, both sides are sort of satisfied with this ambiguous situation, when Georgian authorities are not powerful enough. Nevertheless it’s a temporary compromise, otherwise in near future the U.S.A. will lose its influence in the Caucasus region, and in the long-term perspective (15-20 years) the disintegration processes in Russia will strengthen.
However, from the strategic point of view it is not really important what will be the outcome of the political crisis in Georgia. I think we will see snap elections to the Parliament, or the government system reform will be carried out.
The ruling party and the opposition realize that they both don’t have enough resources to secure a victory. Majority of the population wants stability and democracy that connote justice, and their achievement is closely connected with Georgia’s integration into the West. Here we see public consensus. In the XVIII – XIX centuries Russia was a pathway to Europe, now it’s not, and there is only disappointment about this country.
July 3, 2009
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