Main page                           
Eurasian Home - analytical resource


NEITHER THE U.S.A., NOR RUSSIA ARE INTERESTED IN THE ESCALATION OF POLITICAL CONFLICT IN GEORGIA

Print version

DAVID LOSABERIDZE,
Program director, member of the Executive Council of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Tbilisi

The situation in Georgia will be one of the issues of the negotiations between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. President Barack Obama which will be held on July 6 in Moscow. A different matter is how far the talks over Georgia will be made public – negotiations about the situation in Georgia can take place behind closed doors.

The maximum outcome of the talks is the sides will hold their standpoints; we shouldn’t expect any breakthrough in these negotiations. I don’t think that the parties will make concessions to each other.

The U.S.A. and other Western states do not recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia also can’t revoke the fact of the independence recognition; this step won’t be accepted by the Russian society. Moreover, the U.S.A. is more than Russia interested in the prolongation of the current situation in those republics. Having recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia stepped on the way of the Caucasus, and even more, of the post-Soviet area disintegration. The military conflict of August 2008 against Georgia will backfire on Russia. And such regimes as now exist in Chechnya won’t lessen disintegration tendencies in Russia.

What concerns the confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition in Georgia, Russia and U.S. views should coincide: neither the U.S.A., nor Russia are interested in the conflict escalation in Georgia. It’s naive to think, that pro-Russian political forces will come to power in case of changing of the government in Georgia. On the other side Mikheil Saakashvili’s positions strengthening also doesn’t provide Russia a guarantee of more acquiescence.

Washington doesn’t hope that a constant democrat will come to power in Georgia. So, both sides are sort of satisfied with this ambiguous situation, when Georgian authorities are not powerful enough. Nevertheless it’s a temporary compromise, otherwise in near future the U.S.A. will lose its influence in the Caucasus region, and in the long-term perspective (15-20 years) the disintegration processes in Russia will strengthen.

However, from the strategic point of view it is not really important what will be the outcome of the political crisis in Georgia. I think we will see snap elections to the Parliament, or the government system reform will be carried out.

The ruling party and the opposition realize that they both don’t have enough resources to secure a victory. Majority of the population wants stability and democracy that connote justice, and their achievement is closely connected with Georgia’s integration into the West. Here we see public consensus. In the XVIII – XIX centuries Russia was a pathway to Europe, now it’s not, and there is only disappointment about this country.

July 3, 2009




Our readers’ comments



There are no comments on this article.

You will be the first.

Send a comment

Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Digest

06.07.2009

GALLUP: AMERICANS SOUR ON RUSSIA; RUSSIANS UNSURE ABOUT U.S.

53% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Russia and 34% of Russians negatively assess the performance of the leadership of the United States.

24.06.2009

RFE/RL: WHAT GEORGIANS REALLY THINK ABOUT RUSSIA

Although Georgia went to war with Russia last year, a new nationwide survey indicates mixed feelings about Russia.

27.05.2009

THE INSTITUTE FOR POLLING & MARKETING: GEORGIA. POLITICAL RATING FOR MAY

Starting from April, 28 till May, 5 IPM has conducted next in turn wave of omnibus survey and used political questions only for estimation of political organization’s ratings.

16.04.2009

GALLUP: AMID RALLIES, TBILISI RESIDENTS EXPRESS DESIRE FOR CHANGE

About 20,000 people rallied outside the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi on Monday in the fifth consecutive day of protests, demanding the resignation of President Mikheil Saakashvili.

10.04.2009

RFE/RL: UNREST IN GEORGIA, MOLDOVA REFLECTS PRECEDENT SET BY KOSOVO

The streets of Moldova and Georgia are boiling with protest and anger, while Kosovo continues to grapple with its self-proclaimed statehood.

06.04.2009

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: RESETTING RELATIONS. GEORGIA NOT A BARGAINING CHIP

The first face-to-face talks between Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev were expected to shed light on what the notion of the “reset button” for US-Russian relationships promulgated by US Vice-President Joe Biden was really about.

16.03.2009

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: “THERE IS A THREAT OF INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION FOR GEORGIA”

Interview with Irakli Alasania, leader of the Alliance for Georgia.

16.02.2009

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: SWEET PROMISES: SAAKASHVILI MAKES NATIONAL ADDRESS

Saakashvili’s address did not have a radical tone this time. Populist rhetoric was also missing. Saakashvili said almost nothing about his vision of how territorial integrity would be restored.

19.01.2009

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: INTERVIEW WITH ARIEL COHEN

The US-Georgia Charter is not a Mutual Defence Pact. But It Draws Red Line for Russia.

12.01.2009

THE GEORGIAN TIMES: UNITED STATES-GEORGIA CHARTER ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

Deepening Georgia’s integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions is a mutual priority, and we plan to undertake a program of enhanced security cooperation intended to increase Georgian capabilities and to strengthen Georgia’s candidacy for NATO membership.

09.12.2008

EURASIANET.ORG: GEORGIA: EX-UN ENVOY OPTS FOR OPPOSITION?

Georgia's United Nations envoy Irakli Alasania has become the latest potential player in the country's ever-changing gallery of opposition leaders, following the December 8 announcement of a coalition between two centrist parties.

02.12.2008

RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS: PARADIGM CHANGE IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY

The August events have given a boost to major shifts in the alignment of forces and priorities in NATO territory, although these consequences will not become manifest in full at once.

11.11.2008

RFE/RL: WITH OBAMA WIN, NATO PROSPECTS FOR UKRAINE, GEORGIA APPEAR TO SHIFT

Barack Obama's election may have prompted celebrations from Chicago to Nairobi. But in Tbilisi, it was disappointment that carried the day, with many Georgians ruefully contemplating what John McCain's defeat would mean for them.


Expert forum
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS SOUTH CAUCASUS

ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN

08.07.2009

It is hard for the U.S.A. and other Western countries not to take into account Russia’s interests in the South Caucasus. In case there were any illusions in this respect, the five days war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 has dispelled them.


GEORGIAN OPPOSITION AND GOVERNMENT MAKE A PAUSE

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

08.06.2009

After May 26 (Georgia’s Independence Day), when an impressively large-scale rally organized by the opposition had shown that too many people in Georgia sought to make Mikheil Saakashvili and his team resign, the opposition and the ruling party decided to weaken their confrontation and to step back from the “Red Line”.


IS IT POSSIBLE TO IMPROVE THE RUSSIA-US RELATIONS?

MARIA YULIKOVA

29.05.2009

US president Barack Obama will travel to Moscow in July this year for his second negotiations round with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The first meeting between the two leaders in London in April went well.


THERE ARE NO PRO-RUSSIAN POLITICIANS IN GEORGIA

SERGEI MARKEDONOV

19.05.2009

What does the current situation in Georgia mean for Russia? On the one hand, the confrontation between the government and the opposition is Georgia’s domestic affair. Whoever wins the struggle, no one would take a pro-Russian position.


“GEORGIAN AUTHORITIES ARE NOT GOING TO MAKE SERIOUS CONCESSIONS TO OPPOSITION”

GHIA NODIA

13.05.2009

The Georgian opposition has been holding the protest actions for over a month. The protest started subsiding after several days of mass rallies in April. However, after the 7 May physical skirmish between the police and the opposition the protests recommenced.


PROTEST ACTIONS IN GEORGIA ARE COMING TO A HEAD

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

20.04.2009

How long the opposition’s rally in Tbilisi will last and how long can it maintain the protest mood? Many have asked this question since the seventh day of the protest rally when it became clear that the opposition had failed to take to the streets the number of protesters, which would be a weighty argument for the authorities to effect changes.


“PROTEST ACTION IN TBILISI WILL RESULT IN THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE AUTHORITIES AND OPPOSITION”

DAVID LOSABERIDZE

16.04.2009

The rally showed that many people were displeased with the current authorities. The global economic crisis adversely affects the ratings of the authorities, in particular of President Saakashvili, which also forces the sides to seek the consensus.


“THE PROTEST SENTIMENT OF THE GEORGIAN SOCIETY IS STRONG”

ARCHIL GEGESHIDZE

15.04.2009

It is early to speak whether the Georgian opposition may make President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia step down and whether the early presidential elections will be held.


“GEORGIAN OPPOSITION IS READY TO ACT”

GHIA NODIA

09.04.2009

The opposition rally started in Georgia on April 9. The opposition leaders are sure that they will make President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili resign, and the early elections will be called.


RESET AT THE EXPENSE OF RULE OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS?

MARIA YULIKOVA

08.04.2009

On April 1, 2009 Baraсk Obama met with the Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev to establish agenda for the future bilateral cooperation. Although the presidents agreed on a number of critical issues, the human rights violations and lack of rule of law in Russia were obviously put aside.


U.S.A. DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE POST-SOVIET SPACE AS RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE AREA

ALEXANDER RONDELI

07.04.2009

The U.S. will not throw away its allies including Georgia for the sake of "reset" of the relations with Russia.


GEORGIA: GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION AND EXTERNAL PLAYERS

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

23.03.2009

The external players, which have their own plans and interests in Georgia and the Caucasus region, have become increasingly involved in monitoring of the internal developments in the country along with raising Georgia’s political temperature.


THE U.S. POLICY TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN

24.02.2009

There are no new tendencies or changes in the U.S. policy towards the South Caucasus after the new U.S. Administration has been formed. Barack Obama has not worked out his South Caucasian policy yet. For the time being, the new U.S. authorities focus on overcoming the economic crisis.


U.S. – GEORGIA RELATIONS UNDER THE BARACK OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

ALEXANDER RONDELI

26.01.2009

In the eyes of the U.S. Administration Saakashvili represents the guarantor of stability and further development. If Saakashvili slowly but steadily promotes democratization in the country, he has nothing to worry about.


U.S. - RUSSIA RELATIONS UNDER THE NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION

VIKTOR KREMENIUK

23.01.2009

The rivalry between Moscow and Washington regarding the post-Soviet space will be still urgent under President Obama, but it won’t be crucial as it was under the previous Administration. A certain compromise is possible to achieve.


DOES THE US–GEORGIA CHARTER ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP CHALLENGE RUSSIA?

ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE

14.01.2009

It is difficult to forecast how diligently the Administration of President Barack Obama will follow the above-mentioned articles of the Charter. But there is a high probability (taking into consideration the increased tension in the Russia-U.S. relations) that Russia would consider the Charter as a challenge to its interests in South Caucasus.


U.S. GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS IN THE CIS

TATYANA STANOVAYA

12.08.2005

Geopolitical strategies in the former Soviet republics are undergoing change. The United States no longer intends to spare any effort to preserve post-Soviet regimes that are relatively loyal to the West, banking instead on weakening or overthrowing them.



Author’s opinion on other topics

“PROTEST ACTION IN TBILISI WILL RESULT IN THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE AUTHORITIES AND OPPOSITION”

16 April 2009

The rally showed that many people were displeased with the current authorities. The global economic crisis adversely affects the ratings of the authorities, in particular of President Saakashvili, which also forces the sides to seek the consensus.


GEORGIA IS PREPARING FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

12 May 2008

The Georgia's ruling party has one serious problem – its approval rating is falling. This is due to the lack of clear strategy rather than to the unpopular reforms.

 events
 news
 opinion
 expert forum
 digest
 hot topics
 analysis
 databases
 about us
 the Eurasia Heritage Foundation projects
 links
 our authors
Eurasia Heritage Foundation