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POLITICAL SITUATION IN CENTRAL ASIA: KYRGYZSTAN – RUSSIA – UZBEKISTAN
ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the Institute of the CIS Countries’ Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies
The entire complicated situation in Kyrgyzstan, the rally organized by supporters of MP Ryspek Akmatbayev, killed on May 10, dismissals of high-ranking officials – all of that is tightly connected to the visit of Uzbek President Islom Karimov to Russia.
The latest events prove unambiguously that the situation in Central Asia is far from being stable. Russia, as well as Uzbekistan, is concerned about how things will be further on in this region.
One can say, that on the one hand, the revolution, which took place in Kyrgyzstan in 2005, failed to solve the problems existing at the time. On the other hand, it gave rise to a great deal of new difficulties.
Suffice it to compare the current rally in Kyrgyzstan with the 1999 events, the so-called “Batken wars”. Then, to subdue the militants, the Kyrgyz authorities had to mobilize all of the available military, security and law enforcement agencies. The same mass mobilization of all possible military forces was seen in Uzbekistan. With all that, the groups of militants were small, normally each had no more than a hundred people.
Given all that, here’s the forecast: if such sorties repeat, the events similar to those of 1999 are likely to occur once again (of course, if this time the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s instruments are not used under Russia’s support).
As for the issues to be examined at the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Islom Karimov, not all of them will have to deal with Kyrgyzstan. However, this subject is sure to become a priority.
For Uzbekistan it is an essential question due to a number of reasons, the major perhaps being the presence of the large Uzbek Diaspora located in the south of Kyrgyzstan. It will be good for Uzbekistan to enjoy Russia’s support, should any incidents occur in that very region.
It is worth mentioning that Islom Karimov’s visit happened to take place right after Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev paid a visit to Moscow. It is very possible that the Russian officials have expressed certain desires to Bakiyev, and these are starting to come true. We see this in the dismissal of such influential politicians as Uson Sydykov, Head of the Presidential Administration, Tashtemir Aytbayev, Head of the National Security Service, and Secretary of State Dastan Sarygolov. All these political figures were very closely affiliated with the Kyrgyz President.
However, in spite of all these happenings, we also come to notice that military groups are once again starting to emerge in the southern regions. Of course, they are still scarce, but the fact that they are mobilizing is very explicit.
So, Uzbekistan, having an unpredictable neighbor of the kind, and simultaneously undergoing pressure exerted by the West, especially in connection with the Andijan events anniversary, is definitely turning towards Russia.
Here First Deputy Prime-Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Tashkent pops in mind, with him heatedly discussing the issues of plausible renewal of Uzbekistan’s membership in the CSTO. The topic is very likely to become subject for the two Presidents’ further discussion.
It doesn’t necessarily mean that Uzbekistan is soon to see Russian military bases deployed on its territory. However, certain assurances, which work for the CSTO members, can be given by Russia to Uzbekistan as well. At least, the two Presidents will have to work out a single stance on the security issues, which will dominate the negotiations.
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