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STATE VISIT OF TURKMEN PRESIDENT GURBANGULY BERDIMUHAMEDOV TO RUSSIA
ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies Department, Institute of the CIS Countries, Moscow
Russia has initiated the visit of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan to Moscow. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev personally invited his Turkmen counterpart to Russia, which shows that a lot of questions have been accumulated in Russia-Turkmenistan relations over the past six months.
We remember that Mr Berdimuhamedov expressed his readiness to build gas pipelines in all directions during his trip to Europe. Then Moscow did not take that statement seriously regarding it as the President’s advertizing his country. The Turkmen leaders make such statements in a regular way. And yet, there is a need to confirm the long-term contracts, which Turkmenistan has concluded with Gazprom.
There is a question about formation of the gas purchase price. Till now the contracts have been concluded on the European weight average price. But the world gas prices are expected to plummet in the middle of 2009. Gazprom may incur financial losses because now it exports less gas than in 2008.
Another question (Ashgabat is more interested in it) is modernization of the Turkmen army. This subject is of exteme importance to Turkmenistan. The military doctrine was recently revised and military exercises were held on Turkmenistan-Afghanistan border. The Afghan instability can spread to Turkmenistan.
But Turkmenistan’s neutral status does not allow its government to coordinate its defense policy with the neighboring countries and Russia. As Turkmenistan is not the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) member state, it cannot buy military equipment on favorable terms. Turkmenistan purchased Ukraine’s armament, but those purchases did not prove their value.
The necessity to modernize the army became evident after it had been necessary to destroy a gang in Ashgabat in 2008. Turkmenistan used force, but it denies it got Russian forces involved. I have information that this took place.
Russia is interested in expansion of military and technical cooperation with Ashgabat. Unlike Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Turkmenistan is able to pay hard currency for armament.
Apart from that, humanitarian issues should be examined at the meeting between the Russian and Turkmen Presidents. Russia can raise an issue about abolition of visa regime, which is to step up the economic cooperation and cut down the Russian businessmen’s expenses. Turkmenistan’s investment attractiveness leaves much to be desired, its investment laws are the most drastic in the Central Asian region. In addition, there are visa obstacles. That’s why it would be logical to return to visa-free travel.
The present-day issues, such as trade partnership development can also be considered. The issue of rendering financial assistance to Turkmenistan is likely to be raised, although the financial meltdown affected Turkmenistan less than its Central Asian neighbors. For all that, a number of large-scale projects, which former Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov initiated, are financed insufficiently.
March 25, 2009
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