 |
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
RUSSIA-U.S.A. RELATIONS AND CENTRAL ASIA
ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies Department, Institute of the CIS Countries, Moscow
I believe that Central Asia wasn’t under discussion of the Russian and U.S. Presidents during the visit of Barack Obama to Moscow on July 6-8. Though, this discussion was highly expected in the countries of Central Asia. Before the Moscow summit Central Asian press was filled with information and speculations on how the Russian and U.S. leaders were going to divide spheres of interests in the region.
But in fact, Central Asia was discussed only in the frame of the Afghanistan problem. And the most important thing was the agreement on American military transit through the Russian territory, which was a big concession to the U.S.A. Such issues as the situation around the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan, negotiations between the U.S.A. and Tajikistan on the Ayni airbase building, and between the U.S.A. and Uzbekistan on the base in Navoi were just a background issues, and were left outside the Moscow summit agenda.
Russia made a concession on the issue of military transit, and its reaction to the transformation of the Manas base into a transit point for the American military cargo was quite calm. Moscow has the right to consider that it has made its move and now it’s the turn of Washington. It is not clear yet what the Americans are going to do. Negotiations on Ayni and Navoi are not a simple issue. It is not that easy as one can think to create military bases there. And it is not about China or Russia’s resistance: the establishment of Ayni and Navoi bases requires considerable financial and technological investments.
That’s why the establishment of military transit points in Ayni and Navoi are in a greater degree just a bluffing, aimed at securing the American presence in Manas. Manas base is the most important issue of negotiations on Central Asia among the U.S.A., China and Russia.
It is also an opportunity for Dushanbe and Tashkent to attract Americans with their logistical, transport and, what is more important, financial resources. Moreover, formally Russia can’t oppose to this process, because it itself gave the green light for the transit.
Currently, the U.S.A. is interested in build-up of their potential in Central Asia, because in fact they got nothing, but the Manas base. That’s why now we see some kind of bargaining between Russia and U.S.A. Moscow demonstrates that if there is a necessity it can successfully press for withdrawal of American forces from the base in Kyrgyzstan, thus a basis for the negotiations has been created: if you support “colour revolutions” in the CIS, your military base can be liquidated in six months.
Central Asian states try to pursue a multi-vector policy. But this independence at some point has its limits. Central Asian states are dependant on Russia’s transit system though which they can export their natural resources to Europe. The U.S.A. perfectly realizes that and tries to put pressure on Russia and China by means of negotiations on Ayni and Navoi. But Russia is not surprised with actions of the American side.
The thing is that Russia is interested in maintenance of at least minimal level of stability in Afghanistan. And the U.S.A. is trying to deal with this problem. Russia, as the Moscow summit shows, is still interested in the presence of the American forces in Afghanistan.
July 10, 2009
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Digest
|
11.05.2009
|
|
EURASIANET.ORG: KARIMOV GIVES WASHINGTON THE AIR BASE IT NEEDS FOR AFGHAN OPERATIONS
|
|
With a helping hand from South Korea, the United States has reestablished a strategic presence in Uzbekistan.
|
|
11.05.2009
|
|
WORLD SECURITY NETWORK: CSTO RAPID REACTION FORCES
|
|
Following the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) summits in Moscow, President Dmitry Medvedev told President Nursultan Nazarbayev that only through the pursuit of joint economic projects would these countries be able to withstand the current financial crisis.
|
|
28.01.2009
|
|
INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY: KYRGYZSTAN - USA: DO WE NEED EACH OTHER?
|
|
The interests of Kyrgyzstan and, accordingly, its policy with respect to the U.S. during the years of independence have not gone beyond the corridor of commercial preferences.
|
|
28.04.2008
|
|
UZBEKISTAN TODAY: IMPORTANT PARTNER IN CENTRAL ASIAN REGION
|
|
During their face-to-face talks Islam Karimov and Nursultan Nazarbayev shared their views on the current state and prospects of mutual relations and discussed the international and regional problems of mutual interest.
|
|
17.04.2008
|
|
IWPR: UZBEKS RE-ENGAGE WITH NATO
|
|
President Islam Karimov attended the NATO summit in Bucharest on April 2-4, and offered pact members the use of Uzbek territory as an overland route for supplying non-military material to Afghanistan.
|
|
Expert forum
|
“MOSCOW MADE MORE ADVANTAGEOUS OFFER TO BISHKEK THAN THE U.S.A. DID”
|
|
ZHIBEK SYZDYKOVA
|
04.02.2009
|
|
The visit of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan to Moscow on February 3-4 showed Bishkek’s intention of improving the relations with Russia.
|
|
U.S. - RUSSIA RELATIONS UNDER THE NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION
|
|
VIKTOR KREMENIUK
|
23.01.2009
|
|
The rivalry between Moscow and Washington regarding the post-Soviet space will be still urgent under President Obama, but it won’t be crucial as it was under the previous Administration. A certain compromise is possible to achieve.
|
|
UZBEKISTAN WITHDRAWS FROM THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
|
|
ANDREY GROZIN
|
13.11.2008
|
|
Over the past year the U.S. and EU representatives have actively interacted with Tashkent. Uzbekistan’s foreign policy is the same as that of its neighbors – the Central Asian countries are guided by the much talked-about "multivector" policy.
|
|
RUSSIA STRENGTHENS ITS ROLE IN CENTRAL ASIA
|
|
ANDREY GROZIN
|
08.09.2008
|
|
It is known that at the recent SCO summit, which took place in Dushanbe on August 28, the Central Asian states and China publicly interpreted Russia’s military operation in the Caucasus in a restrained way, but on the whole Moscow's actions were supported.
|
|
THE EVOLUTION OF RUSSIA’S CENTRAL ASIA POLICY
|
|
VLADIMIR PARAMONOV, ALEKSEY STROKOV
|
17.07.2008
|
|
Eurasian Home with a kind permission of Defence Academy of the United Kingdom publishes an analytical report on Russia's policy in Central Asia, written by Vladimir Paramonov and Aleksey Strokov.
|
|
Author’s opinion on other topics
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN TAJIKISTAN
|
05 March 2010
|
|
It was clear even before the elections that the Tajikistani authorities could not achieve their main object from those elections – to improve Tajikistan’s image on the international scene.
|
BEIJING’S ENERGY PROJECTS IN CENTRAL ASIA
|
16 December 2009
|
|
Laying of a gas pipeline to China, through which the Turkmen gas will be pumped via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is a result of Beijing’s well thought-out strategy to diversify its raw materials sources. In this respect China’s foreign policy resembles that of Russia, since it is built only on pragmatism.
|
STATE VISIT OF TURKMEN PRESIDENT GURBANGULY BERDIMUHAMEDOV TO RUSSIA
|
25 March 2009
|
|
Russia has initiated the visit of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan to Moscow. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev personally invited his Turkmen counterpart to Russia, which shows that a lot of questions have been accumulated in Russia-Turkmenistan relations over the past six months.
|
WORKING VISIT OF EMOMALI RAHMON TO RUSSIA
|
26 February 2009
|
|
The visit of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to Russia made on February 24, testifies to the serious problems in Russia-Tajikistan relations as well as in the relations between Tajikistan and its Central Asian neighbors, above all, Uzbekistan.
|
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN TURKMENISTAN
|
19 December 2008
|
|
The main goal of the election was to confirm President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov’s image. It is almost two years since Saparmurat Niyazov died and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov became the President. It is necessary to show that he has more democratic beliefs than his predecessor had and is going to reform Turkmenistan’s political system.
|
UZBEKISTAN WITHDRAWS FROM THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
|
13 November 2008
|
|
Over the past year the U.S. and EU representatives have actively interacted with Tashkent. Uzbekistan’s foreign policy is the same as that of its neighbors – the Central Asian countries are guided by the much talked-about "multivector" policy.
|
RUSSIA STRENGTHENS ITS ROLE IN CENTRAL ASIA
|
08 September 2008
|
|
It is known that at the recent SCO summit, which took place in Dushanbe on August 28, the Central Asian states and China publicly interpreted Russia’s military operation in the Caucasus in a restrained way, but on the whole Moscow's actions were supported.
|
DMITRY MEDVEDEV VISITS KAZAKHSTAN
|
27 May 2008
|
|
Medvedev’s visit to Kazakhstan was fruitful. Some said it would be a reconnaissance and ceremonial visit. But as a matter of fact, a lot of practical issues were addressed, certain agreements were reached.
|
GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN TAJIKISTAN
|
04 February 2008
|
|
In spite of the apparent unity of the Tajik elite and integrity of authorities, the elites and President Emomali Rahmon were at variance.
|
NEW BIG GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA
|
14 November 2007
|
|
At present the West has better attitude towards Turkmenistan than it did under former President Saparmurat Niyazov, although since he died, the regime has hardly changed. This shows once more that oil and gas are more important than democracy.
|
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN
|
21 August 2007
|
|
“Nur Otan” party’s success means people’s desire to maintain the existing regime. In fact, the elections turned out the referendum on the President’s policy.
|
KAZAKHSTAN ON THE THRESHOLD OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
|
23 July 2007
|
|
The parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan will not give any surprises. The political opposition is unlikely to achieve a breakthrough. So any realistic analysis should be focused on how many votes three dominating parties will get.
|
CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN KAZAKHSTAN
|
21 May 2007
|
|
From now on President Nazarbayev will have a free hand in maneuvering within the elites. He is interested in maintaining the existing peace among the elites.
|
OPPOSITION RALLIES IN KYRGYZSTAN
|
12 April 2007
|
|
Different scenarios can be expected to take place in Kyrgyzstan. Now the sides do not tend to conflict with each other and to use force. The opposition is not interested in that scenario since inevitable victims will discredit the opposition leaders.
|
POLITICAL SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
|
30 January 2007
|
|
As soon as Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev nominated Azim Isabekov for the post of prime minister (on January 26), it became possible to speak about the breakup of the Bakiyev-Kulov alliance.
|
TURKMENISTAN AFTER NIYAZOV’S DEATH
|
21 December 2006
|
|
The USA, Russia and China considered the possibility of Niyazov’s death. But apparently, they have no action plan for this event. So, in the near future the other countries’ interference will be extremely little.
|
THE RUSSIAN - KYRGYZ RELATIONS
|
22 April 2006
|
|
I would not say that because of raising a fee for the USA for using the Kyrgyz military bases, the current policy pursued by the Kyrgyz authorities has become less pro-Western than it was under former President Askar Akayev.
|
POLITICAL SITUATION IN KAZAKHSTAN
|
04 March 2006
|
|
The conflict within the ruling elite groups in Kazakhstan is caused by system-related processes rather than by conjuncture factors.
|
RUSSIA – KYRGYZSTAN: BILATERAL RELATIONS
|
09 September 2005
|
|
Despite the change of power in Kyrgyzstan, the agenda of negotiations between Moscow and Bishkek will not be seriously altered. The reason for that lays in the economic sphere as well as in tricky political conditions. Those are not the “Tulip Revolution” leaders’ wishes or personal interests which determine the content of the agenda, but the complexity of the current situation. This year’s economic outcomes are going to be deplorable and the most unsuccessful for the last five years. In these circumstances the Kyrgyz authorities need additional resources in order to retain the power.
|
|
|
RUSSIAN - CHINESE RELATIONS
|
19 July 2005
|
|
WE CANNOT ESTIMATE CHINA’S POSITION TOWARD RUSSIA AS UNAMBIGUOUS
Chinese diplomatic tradition demands to treat the partner with conscious superiority in order to demonstrate China’s grandeur. But the historical context of the relationships between China and Russia and the current political situation, particularly in Central Asia, prevent China from doing it.
|
|
|
|
|
