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RUSSIA STRENGTHENS ITS ROLE IN CENTRAL ASIA

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ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the Institute of the CIS Countries’ Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies, Moscow

It is known that at the recent SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) summit, which took place in Dushanbe on August 28, the Central Asian states and China publicly interpreted Russia’s military operation in the Caucasus in a restrained way, but on the whole Moscow's actions were supported.

The Western observers expected that the SCO member states would back Russia completely. At first sight, this did not occur, which allowed the West alliance to jump to the conclusion that Russia had become all but isolated diplomatically. It is not the case. The desirable has been passed for reality.

During the bilateral and multilateral negotiations, which were often conducted behind closed doors, Russia’s actions in the Caucasus (involvement of the Russian army in the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict and Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia) were called understandable, absolutely necessary and fair by the SCO leaders. The summit participants expressed support for Russia verbally, while words are of great importance in Asia. It comes natural that President of China Hu Jintao and President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev rendered the most active public backing to Russia.

President of Tajikistan Emomalii Rahmon and President of Uzbekistan Islom Karimov took Russia's side. Kyrgyzstan also supported Russia, although in a slightly restrained way. In short, all the Central Asian states and China backed Russia up. So, it would be wrong to say that the SCO summit was unsuccessful for Russia. The summit was held the way Russia would like.

This is indicated also by the visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Uzbekistan on September 1-2. The display of the leader’s respect plays a great role in the Orient. The way the Russian Premier was met shows how the relations with Russia are important for Tashkent. I do not remember Uzbek President Islom Karimov himself meeting a foreign prime minister at the airport for the recent several years.

Uzbekistan makes a point of developing the relations with Russia for many reasons. First of all, the energy cooperation. At the negotiations in Tashkent the price for the Uzbek gas, which is bought by the Russian monopoly Gazprom, was discussed. Evidently, it will be higher than $160 per a cubic meter since 2009 (the gas has been bought for $160 per a cubic meter since the middle of 2008) and will be correlated with the oil price per a barrel. All the more, such a pricing policy was adopted after the Russian-Turkmen negotiations. The final price is likely to be over $200 since 2009.

Uzbekistan exports less natural gas than its neighbors do. Turkmenistan exports about 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, while Uzbekistan – from 7 to 10 billion cubic meters. Under the circumstances, the gas volume as well as the development of other profitable projects in the sphere of gas extraction are important for the Russian company Gazprom.

Russia still has a monopoly on the transportation of the Central Asian energy resources, but it cannot rest on its laurels. There is a need to increase the existing capacities and to build new pipelines.

In addition, the issue of merger between Tashkent Chkalov Aircraft Production Facility and Joint Aircraft Building Corporation was discussed in Tashkent. The military and technical cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan can be stepped up. For that, suffice it to see the composition of the Russian delegation, accompanied Vladimir Putin. I would not agree with rather bad references given by some Russian mass media to the meeting (which had been held a week earlier before Vladimir Putin's official visit to Tashkent) between First Deputy Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Rustam Azimov and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, which is said to be unsuccessful. Rustam Azimov and Sergei Ivanov came to terms with each other about the main issues and approved important documents.

All Russia’s steps in Central Asia including the visit of First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov to Turkmenistan on August 30, the decisions made during the visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Dushanbe and the meeting between Russian Premier Vladimir Putin and President of Uzbekistan Islom Karimov in Tashkent were taken due to well-coordinated and well thought-out activities of the Russian authorities, which followed much analytical work.

This shows once more that Russia has many partners, it is not isolated and, what is more, it is not going to become a rogue state. Those activities will continue regardless of what decisions will be taken in Washington and Brussels.  

The Caucasian events have made Moscow build relations with the Central Asian states more actively. But Russia has been developing those relations for several years. And whatever happens in the Caucasus, Russia will continue to implement a major project – it tries to turn into one of the leading states in the world. This is an objective process.

This indicates that the world is getting multipolar. If the USA and Europe do not want to understand that, it is bad for them. After the Caucasian events the concept of unipolar world led by the USA is losing its value every month. Each visit of the Russian high officials to the Central Asian states makes the world a little more multipolar.

September 8, 2008




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