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UZBEKISTAN WITHDRAWS FROM THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the Institute of the CIS Countries’ Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies, Moscow
The main reason why Uzbekistan has applied for the withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) to which Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan also belong, is quite clear. Over the past year the U.S. and EU representatives have actively interacted with Tashkent. Uzbekistan’s foreign policy is the same as that of its neighbors – the Central Asian countries are guided by the much talked-about "multivector" policy.
Nevertheless, while the rest of the countries maneuver between Russia and the West smoothly and do not annoy the foreign actors, Uzbekistan often plays like a pendulum. Tashkent withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty and later on it joined the CSTO again. Tashkent also withdrew from the GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova) Group, and then it joined the EAEC without signing any binding agreements.
I am sure that this is not a tragedy. Obviously, Uzbekistan’s withdrawal from the EAEC is a challenge to the diplomacy of Russia rather than of the other EAEC member states. For Russia, this withdrawal is unwelcome but not dangerous. I hope that this will not be followed by other undesirable steps.
It took one year for Uzbekistan to withdraw from the GUUAM. Tashkent hoped that the West would make concessions in favor of Uzbekistan’s stay in the Organization. In the case of the EAEC Tashkent perhaps reckons on Russia’s concessions.
In addition, Uzbekistan reserves the right to develop the bilateral relations with Russia. In other words, the projects, which are part of the Uzbekistan-Russia cooperation, are unlikely to suffer. So, I doubt that the situation will worsen for the Russian business.
I do not think that the Russian authorities were too naive when after the Andijan events in 2005 Uzbekistan became Russia’s partner. This move was caused by Tashkent’s deciding not to cooperate with the West. Unlike Kazakhstan, Tashkent had little room for maneuver. Uzbekistan could cooperate only with Russia and China. Now the Western ‘window of opportunities’ opened slightly and Uzbekistan hopes that the West will also help it.
Uzbekistan is a sovereign state and is entitled to make decisions whatever it considers necessary. Therefore, at the official level Russia will make no negative comments. In this situation the aphorism “Great Powers do not take offence, but they have good memory” comes back to me.
Uzbekistan has many grave social and economic problems. So, the events similar to those in Andijan may occur again. Apart from that, the U.S. new Administration can phase out its operation in Afghanistan, which would make Uzbekistan face a lot of other problems.
If that is so, Russia will be more cautious and will not offer clear support to Tashkent. If the Andijan events take place again, the USA and the EU will unlikely back Uzbekistan. At any rate, the Russia-Georgia conflict showed that the USA and the EU were not ready to directly support the regime with which they had friendly relations.
Uzbekistan as well as Kazakhstan is faced with the problem of power transition. But this cannot be implemented as peacefully as it was done in Turkmenistan. Former Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov annihilated major elite groups and influential political figures. That’s why the security officials, who were close to Mr. Niyazov, began to govern the country at his death. They brought to power a man, who had been considered the most controllable. But Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov used his minders to get rid of them.
Such a scenario would be impossible in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Even now many Uzbek and Kazakh politicians are looking to become next President. They have both the ambitions and the resources. So, those countries will witness struggle for power instead of peaceful transition.
When the "multivector" policy is pursued, this struggle will get still more hard-fought. The foreign players will interfere in this process. Here Uzbekistan should take a more definite position. That does not mean Uzbekistan must look only to Russia. It can choose the West or China. But taking any definite position would be reasonable.
November 13, 2008
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