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GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN TAJIKISTAN
ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the Institute of the CIS Countries’ Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies, Moscow
The bitter frosts that set in Tajikistan have to do with the ministerial reshuffles that came in late January. But that is not the point. The frosts only brought closer the reshuffles. It was clear that the government was not ready for the winter a month and a half ago, when the winter came. But the reshuffles were implemented only now, at the turn of the month.
As far as I know, in spite of the apparent unity of the Tajik elite and integrity of authorities, the elites and President Emomali Rahmon were at variance.
Rahmon is the youngest Central Asian leader. But in Dushanbe there are rumors that the President has serious problems with health. Unlike the Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, who uses the Chinese medicine, the Tajik President uses the traditional Western medicine. Rahmon is said to have been examined on the eve of the cabinet changes. It is not known if this is true or not. Since the rumors are not officially denied, they circulate in the press.
I am referring to the Turkmen scenario. It is possible that some clans meant to seize power in the event of force majeur and were making preparations for it. Under the circumstances Rahmon decided to resort to the cabinet reshuffles.
In terms of professional qualities of the cabinet members there were no serious changes. The same officials remained in power. Rahmon has very poor personnel resources. The team that was formed six years ago is still holding power. Wicked tongues call this group “holding company of Dangara” (Dangara is the native city of the Tajik President). Like the President, the representatives of the group come from the South of the country. So, it is not expected that the political processes will be changed seriously and the problems will be solved in a new way. Tajikistan will survive this winter. The citizens survived the civil war and will survive now even if the electric power is fully cut off. Especially as the meteorologists say that the cold snap will be over early in February.
It is another matter that the problem is not solved. The startup of the Sangtudin hydropower plant will not solve the issue either, because the plant will supply about 1/4-1/5 of the daily consumption of the electric power in Dushanbe. If the Rogun and other hydropower plants are put into operation, Tajikistan will be able to cope with the problem of energy shortage. But this will happen, at best, in five years, if there is no force majeur or dramatic change of political power.
For the time being Tajikistan is free from any trouble in this respect. It is significant that the reshuffles were carried out quietly, unlike in Turkmenistan, where the criminal cases were opened and the defendants were sentenced to long terms of imprisonment. Therefore one can conclude that either the elites and the President were at variance, which, though, did not go beyond the verbal stage, or they were not at variance at all.
I believe that the existing monopoly of power or, as a matter of fact, one family’s control annoys many people who are not only the representatives of other regions but also who came from the South. Rahmon has the numerous family - its members took control of all the significant resources and assets. Today the people expect some property redistribution. A similar process occurred in Kyrgyzstan.
Both republics are poor and have few profitable enterprises and resources. All in all, after the “Tulip Revolution” the best of the Kyrgyz property went from the entourage of former President Askar Akayev to the son of his successor President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Maksim, or to his close friends.
The greater part of Tajikistan’s budget is formed by the Tajiks, in the main by those who go to Kazakhstan and Russia to earn money. The country cannot support the majority of its residents only through its own resources. The large profitable enterprises include only the Tajik Aluminum Plant, it is expected that the large energy projects will be launched and the energy resources will be exported. Licit business includes the production of cotton, the agrarian sector as well as the trade sector. But as to the latter, Tajikistan cannot compete against Kyrgyzstan that, as the WTO member, became an energy trade centre. The goods from China, Turkey and the Middle East countries are carried there and then distributed to other countries.
The monopoly of one family does not mean that the foreign capital cannot be used in the republic’s economy. The bottom line is the strong political support on the part of the government agencies. This concerns any business be it Kazakh, American or Russian. We have two examples. Those are RAO “UES of Russia” and RUSAL (Russian Aluminum). The first example is positive, the second one is not very positive. RAO “UES of Russia” Company enjoyed serious government support, while RUSAL was supported on leftovers.
Apart from that, there is the Uzbekistan factor. And RUSAL has a better chance of gaining a foothold in this market. One should bear in mind that the relations between Tashkent and Dushanbe, which are bad enough as they are, have been deteriorating with every month. Dushanbe has no leverage over Tashkent. Tashkent has leverage over Dushanbe in the form of gas and energy transit. Actually the same reasons keep Tajikistan interested in developing its energy sector - to influence Uzbekistan. Given the current situation the Russian company has to choose. I believe that it is more feasible to choose Tashkent.
February 4, 2008
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