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TURKMENISTAN AFTER NIYAZOV’S DEATH

ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the Institute of the CIS Countries’ Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies, Moscow

At the present moment one cannot say what has been happening in Turkmenistan after President Saparmurat Niyazov’s death. There is little information from Turkmenistan.

This morning the Embassies of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have turned to me for the Turkmen events. It means that even Turkmenistan’s neighbors have no idea what is going on there.

It is unclear who is making decisions and what is the trend of events in the country today. That’s why no expert can forecast what will be happen.

It is clear only that the death of Turkmenbashi has created the situation of vacuum of power in the country.

Two scenarios are possible to take place in the near future.

The first scenario is the take-over with the use of force. The main struggle could unfold between the Interior Ministry, the National Security Ministry and the Presidential Security Service.

I believe that the Interior Ministry has the best chance of seizing the power. First of all, this Ministry wasn’t purged of its officers under the authoritarian rule of Turkmenbashi. Even if any purge took place, it was long ago. Besides the Ministry of the Interior is supported by a larger part of the elites than other security, defense and law-enforcement agencies are.

The Presidential Security Service was not purged either. However, it has fewer rank-and-file members than the Interior Ministry does; and those it has are hired. The ranks are not citizens of Turkmenistan.

The second scenario is the search for a compromise figure in the elites who would be able to replace Niyazov till the next presidential elections. According to the 60^th article of the Constitution of Turkmenistan the Speaker of the Parliament becomes the acting President in the event of force majeure.

The problem is that the current Speaker is not an influential policy-maker and many of the Turkmen people don’t even know his name. So, there are doubts whether he will be able to stay on until the presidential elections. So, I think the Speaker is unlikely to become the acting President for the transition period.

Probably, the elites will seek another figure. But it is also problematic. On the one hand, they will not accept a President like Niyazov. They are interested in having a weak President. However, in the situation when the elites are split a weak President won’t manage to retain the power. Under the circumstances the elites will be inclined to look for a stronger figure.

As regards the outside forces, they are likely to be paralyzed. Of course, the USA, Russia and China considered the possibility of Niyazov’s death. But apparently, they have no action plan for this event. So, in the near future the other countries’ interference will be extremely little.

December 21, 2006

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