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NEW BIG GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA
ANDREY GROZIN,
Head of the Institute of the CIS Countries’ Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan Studies, Moscow
On November 2-4, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and on November 5-6 Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov visited Brussels. Those events confirm once again the well-known point that the geopolitical reality changes by leaps and bounds. Recently the opportunities, which the former Soviet states of Central Asia used to enjoy, have become much broader. For some reasons, they cease being subject to the policy followed by the world powers and try to become full-fledged actors in world politics.
Above all, this is due to the great number of the Central Asian states’ resources. However, the geopolitical factor, or geostrategy, is of importance too. These countries’ location makes it possible to implement the projects in the neighboring countries when controlling Central Asia. Those countries include Russia, China, Iran and the Muslim countries in the south of Eurasia. In the USA the ideas of Greater Middle East and Greater Central Asia are still valid. In spite of their ambiguity and, in a sense, inadequacy, those ideas are of current importance to the U.S. Administration.
All of the Central Asian countries realize what is at stake and try to show themselves to the best advantage. The Memorandum of Understanding, which was signed by the Turkmen President and the British oil companies, is revealing. On the one hand, the memorandum does not commit Turkmenistan to anything. On the other hand, the memorandum concerns the Russian and Chinese companies rather than the British ones. This is one of many facts indicating that the Central Asian countries would like to make the best of their location and potential.
It may be the political support, investments and new technologies. Now the new Turkmen President particularly needs political support. He wants the regime to be legitimized including by the West. The Turkmen elites do not submit to the President in full measure.
At present the West has better attitude towards Turkmenistan than it did under former President Saparmurat Niyazov, although since he died, the regime has hardly changed. This shows once more that oil and gas are more important than democracy.
So, the Turkmen President was welcomed in Brussels. Unpleasant issues and facts were left aside. The President was not asked about the humanitarian problems, freedom of speech, the political prisoners, etc in the country. Brussels’ attitude towards the other Central Asian countries is the same. Kazakhstan’s increasing role cannot be attributed to economic reforms. If Kyrgyzstan had the comparable amount of oil and gas, the country would flourish just the same way.
Russia pursues its policy according to those approaches. The global tendency is strengthening of the pragmatic approach in the policy followed by all the major powers. Russia indirectly regards the energy factor as a way to make its influence stronger, for example, on the Central Asian countries, while the Western nations still speak about democracy, although, as a matter of fact, they behave pragmatically.
All the Central Asian countries are authoritarian regimes where executive chains of command have been created. They are criticized for lack of democracy less than Russia. Why? Despite the fact that those countries are getting more influential, they are not considered to be potential agents of international relations. The same is true to Kazakhstan. All of the world centers look upon the Central Asian countries as an area where they could apply their efforts. This is a new variety of the Big Game.
November 14, 2007
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Author’s opinion on other topics
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05 March 2010
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It was clear even before the elections that the Tajikistani authorities could not achieve their main object from those elections – to improve Tajikistan’s image on the international scene.
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16 December 2009
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Laying of a gas pipeline to China, through which the Turkmen gas will be pumped via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is a result of Beijing’s well thought-out strategy to diversify its raw materials sources. In this respect China’s foreign policy resembles that of Russia, since it is built only on pragmatism.
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RUSSIA-U.S.A. RELATIONS AND CENTRAL ASIA
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10 July 2009
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I believe that Central Asia wasn’t under discussion of the Russian and U.S. Presidents during the visit of Barack Obama to Moscow on July 6-8. Though, this discussion was highly expected in the countries of Central Asia.
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25 March 2009
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Russia has initiated the visit of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan to Moscow. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev personally invited his Turkmen counterpart to Russia, which shows that a lot of questions have been accumulated in Russia-Turkmenistan relations over the past six months.
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WORKING VISIT OF EMOMALI RAHMON TO RUSSIA
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26 February 2009
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The visit of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to Russia made on February 24, testifies to the serious problems in Russia-Tajikistan relations as well as in the relations between Tajikistan and its Central Asian neighbors, above all, Uzbekistan.
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19 December 2008
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13 November 2008
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08 September 2008
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27 May 2008
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GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN TAJIKISTAN
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04 February 2008
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In spite of the apparent unity of the Tajik elite and integrity of authorities, the elites and President Emomali Rahmon were at variance.
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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN
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21 August 2007
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“Nur Otan” party’s success means people’s desire to maintain the existing regime. In fact, the elections turned out the referendum on the President’s policy.
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23 July 2007
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CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN KAZAKHSTAN
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21 May 2007
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From now on President Nazarbayev will have a free hand in maneuvering within the elites. He is interested in maintaining the existing peace among the elites.
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OPPOSITION RALLIES IN KYRGYZSTAN
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12 April 2007
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
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30 January 2007
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21 December 2006
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THE RUSSIAN - KYRGYZ RELATIONS
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22 April 2006
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN KAZAKHSTAN
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04 March 2006
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The conflict within the ruling elite groups in Kazakhstan is caused by system-related processes rather than by conjuncture factors.
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RUSSIA – KYRGYZSTAN: BILATERAL RELATIONS
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09 September 2005
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Despite the change of power in Kyrgyzstan, the agenda of negotiations between Moscow and Bishkek will not be seriously altered. The reason for that lays in the economic sphere as well as in tricky political conditions. Those are not the “Tulip Revolution” leaders’ wishes or personal interests which determine the content of the agenda, but the complexity of the current situation. This year’s economic outcomes are going to be deplorable and the most unsuccessful for the last five years. In these circumstances the Kyrgyz authorities need additional resources in order to retain the power.
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RUSSIAN - CHINESE RELATIONS
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19 July 2005
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WE CANNOT ESTIMATE CHINA’S POSITION TOWARD RUSSIA AS UNAMBIGUOUS
Chinese diplomatic tradition demands to treat the partner with conscious superiority in order to demonstrate China’s grandeur. But the historical context of the relationships between China and Russia and the current political situation, particularly in Central Asia, prevent China from doing it.
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