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UKRAINE-RUSSIA: LOOKING FOR UNDERSTANDING

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YEVHEN KOPATKO, GRIGORY PEREPELITSA, ANDREY BLINOV,
Kyiv - Moscow

Yevhen KOPATKO, President of the sociological “Research & Branding Group” company, “Eurasian monitor” consortium, Kyiv 

There is a trend of worsening in the Russian-Ukrainian relations. The ‘point of no return’ is passed. Two countries will have to start their relations from scratch in future.

There are two factors that prevent the Russian-Ukrainian relations from normalizing.

Firstly, the countries have no will to stabilize their relations.

Secondly, the Russians and the Ukrainians are not interested in each other, which is noted by many experts. Although the older people show such an interest, the young generation is loosing it. And this is a systematic process.

Grigory PEREPELITSA, Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Kyiv 

The reasons for Ukraine’s seeking to join NATO are connected with the way in which the Ukrainian state develops. Russia and Ukraine have chosen different patterns of development. 

The most important thing is to save tolerance in the Russian-Ukrainian relations. The two states should respect each other’s choices.

Ukraine regards its trying to join NATO as a part of the civilization project. If we consider ourselves a European state, we should participate in Europe’s political life and security system. After the “Orange revolution”, which showed that Ukraine could not go back to the past and that democracy in Ukraine would develop, the NATO membership became a natural prospect for us. 

Now we should work out the strategy of settling the existing problems. Unfortunately, we are not supported by the majority of the population. We have bad relations with Russia that is annoyed by the prospect of Ukraine’s NATO membership. But this membership, like Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania or Bulgaria’s membership in the Alliance, would pose no threat to Russia. Those countries’ being NATO members does not prevent Russia from building friendly relations with them. NATO looks upon Russia as a partner. 

It is another matter that Russia realizes that after joining NATO Ukraine will leave the ‘Eurasian’ civilization space for good. It is important to try to overcome the stereotypes, which are being formed in our relations, rather than to become obsessed with them.

I believe that Russia has done everything in its power to block Ukraine’s admission to NATO. Russia regards Ukraine's non-accession to the NATO membership Action Plan as its victory. Of course, Moscow can seek to destabilize the situation in the country, but here the question arises what Russia will gain from the destabilization and how it will affect Russia itself.

If we are talking about Ukraine’s membership in NATO, undoubtedly the Russian factor is of importance. France and Germany, which depend on Russia in terms of energy more and more, champion its interests in NATO. But another problem is that Ukraine is not ready to join NATO. 

Ukraine will continue to integrate with NATO and it has the right to do that. 

However our country pursues the ‘pro-Ukrainian’ policy rather than the pro-Western policy. Ukraine decided to develop in the Western way, which is connected with the European economical laws, political regime and security system. We do not look upon NATO as Russia’s enemy. For us NATO and the EU are inseparable notions. 

Not Viktor Yushchenko, but Former President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma started integrating Ukraine with NATO as far back as 1994. He was a Soviet bureaucrat, but after having become the Ukrainian President, he came to realize that he needs some tools to protect sovereignty of the state. 

Anyone, who comes to power, will understand this. It would be wrong to establish linkage between Ukraine’s joining NATO and personalities. Take, for example, Moldova and let’s remember what the Communist leader Vladimir Voronin had had before taking the position of Moldovan President and what moves he made after that.

Andrey BLINOV, Center for Study of Russia, Kyiv 

The Ukrainian and Russian authorities are interested in presenting each other in an unfavorable light in the mass media. The Russians are aware of chaotic condition of Ukraine’s situation. This is not unfounded, but the words “chaos” and “democracy” are often equated. On the other hand, the Ukrainian mass media, which are loyal to the government, say that today’s Russia is an extremely totalitarian state and that Josef Stalin’s regime did not have the slightest resemblance to what is going on now. But this is false and those are information wars even between very close nations - Ukrainians and Russians, which makes the personal relations between people strained.

I am not sure that Ukraine will join NATO, at least in the Alliance’s current state. 

Here the key question is the Ukrainian people’s position. Only 20-30% of the Ukrainians support the country’s joining NATO, which is not enough to join the Alliance. What is more, the political elite, who come out for Ukraine’s joining NATO, are unpopular. 

The question of intensification of Ukraine’s integration into NATO may be raised or frozen following the presidential election in Ukraine. But it is clear that Ukraine will not give up its civilization choice. 

The material is based on the reports of participants in the first meeting of the “Ukrainian round table” at the Carnegie Moscow Center office, on December 17, 2008. 

December 23, 2008




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