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THE GEORGIAN TIMES: POLITICAL POLLING, MANIPULATION - VOTERS UNSURE WHO TO TRUST
With the parliamentary elections less than two weeks away, Georgians are swamped with opinion poll results and left to deduce what they mean. While generally, polls are regarded as important because they give decision makers and potential voters an idea of public opinion, this year they have become a contentious issue, stirring up disagreements between parties about the validity of polling.
The polling campaign kicked off last week, as Georgian ACT and international polling firm American Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) unveiled the results of its survey, which found that Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) Party is likely to receive 44% of the votes.
The survey, which was ordered by the ruling party was based on face-to-face interviews with 1,200 voters throughout Georgia and conducted between April 14-20. It was based on a nation-wide, random sample, reflecting the distribution of the Georgian electorate across all regions (excluding Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and across rural and urban areas. The survey asked a variety of questions about voting likelihood to identify a sub-set of 636 respondents (53 % of the sample) who are most likely to vote on May 21. The methodology and questionnaire were designed by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, under the direction of its Executive Vice President Dr. Jeremy Rosner and the field work was conducted by the Georgian company ACT Research Ltd. The margin of error is reported by GQR to be plus or minus 2.8%.
GQR notes that the results of the survey reflected the attitudes of the electorate at the time it was conducted, and cannot assess the actual election outcome because events that have occurred since April 20 - like the announcement by Parliamentary Chairperson Nino Burjanadze that she would not run on the ruling party’s list- may have drastically affected voter support. In addition, the poll was completed during a period when, for the most part, the opposition parties had not yet begun their electoral campaigns.
According to the survey results, among Georgian voters, the UNM will take 44% (up 2 points from the previous survey), compared to 12 % for the United Opposition Council (down 7 points), 11 % for the Christian Democratic Movement (unchanged), 7% for the Labor Party of Georgia (up 1 point), and 4 % for the Republican Party (up 3 points). Of those polled, 16 % were still undecided.
GQR says if one looks at only the 53 % of voters who are most likely to vote on May 21, the National Movement’s support would grow to 52 percent, while the United Opposition Council still would receive 12 percent, the Christian Democratic Movement- 9 percent, the Labor Party- 6 percent, and the Republicans would attract 4 percent. Among these likely to turnout voters, 14 %are still undecided.
According to the report, “By examining their responses to other questions in the survey, it is possible to project how this block of 14 %likely-to-vote but undecided voters would most likely cast their ballots. Once we allocate the undecided, likely voters in this manner, the National Movement emerges with 57% of the vote, with 16% for the United Opposition Council, 9% for the Christian Democratic Movement, 7 % for the Labor Party, and 4 % for the Republican Party (which would be below the threshold for gaining parliamentary seats). These figures represent our best estimates for the race, as of April 20.”
Tinatin Rukhadze, director of ACT Research told The Georgian Times that the ACT executed the project and the questions asked in the questionnaire are confidential. She says that she is not at liberty to talk about concrete answers or content from the questionnaires.
The opposition downplayed the survey right away. Almost all of them said the survey was biased in some way.
Davit Usulashvili, leader of Republican Party states that The Republican Party has a much higher rating than is identified in the survey.
“Even without results from the survey we know that the ruling party wishes for the Republican Party to remain beyond the parliament and political games. However they will not succeed,” says Usupashvili.
What is strange, however, is that the opposition parties have not hired any other research center to challenge the survey but instead are conducting opinion polls themselves.
Usupashvili says his party is also “conducting a survey” and he knows the “actual support for his party.”
Nestan Kirtadze, leader of the Labor Party declares that the allegations by the ruling party that one of the most popular groups in the world conducted the survey and that thus, the results are reliable are groundless. “Georgian people represent the most reliable group. We also are conducting research and we’ll publish the results. Our survey shows that rating of Labor party considerably exceeds the indicator revealed by the research ordered by the ruling party. Our survey proves that 17% of voters support the Labor Party,” Kirtadze says.
Zviad Dzidziguri, leader of the united opposition says the ACT poll does not reflect the real picture and it is false. “We conduct surveys which show that the ruling party and united opposition have the highest indicators. However, the united opposition predominates, with 44-52%, while the National Movement has 19-24%. Next comes the Labor party. Our inquiry shows that the Republican Party will also easily overcome the election threshold,” Dzidziguri.
On April 8 the united opposition conducted an opinion poll in various districts (1477 respondents were questioned in three districts). The ratings for the parties are as follows: united opposition- 44.3%, National Movement- 21.7%; Labor Party- 14.5%; Christian-Democratic party- 11.4%, Republican Party- 8.1%.
The opposition parties did not release any information about the methodology of the survey.
Levan Gachechiladze, the number one candidate for the united opposition called on people to declare a vote of no confidence in the surveys and the exit polls ordered by the ruling party. According to Gachechiladze they try to lie in the exit polls too.
“A group of TV companies controlled by ministers, law enforcement bodies and the authorities will be formed. It will announce the victory of Saakashvili’s team before the election. Do not participate in such surveys. Do not allow them to falsify election results before the elections,” Gachechiladze warns.
Nino Japaridze
The Georgian Times, May 12, 2008
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