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THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS

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ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi

Eurasian Home: “Why does Russia intend to normalize the relations with Georgia (lifting the trade and economic sanctions)? How are those statements seen in Georgia? Will Georgia agree to have those sanctions lifted?”

I believe that Russia has several reasons for lifting sanctions. Those include the unexpected strong reaction and strong-worded statements by the West about Russia’s latest moves to support the Georgia's breakaway regions; Russia’s wish to smooth over that negative reaction and show that it equally seeks to solve the problems caused by the economic sanctions for both Georgia and its breakaway territories. And, Russia probably hopes that lifting of the economic sanctions, which were a heavy burden for the Georgian economy and worsened the living of many Georgians, will be welcomed in the Georgian society. The Georgian policy-makers and experts see those statements as Moscow’s double game and a kind of “stick and carrot” policy. The Georgian citizens, who have little to do with politics, take the lifting of the sanctions as a benefit and the official Tbilisi can’t ignore those attitudes. 

Eurasian Home: “Can Russia’s proposals influence the parliamentary elections in Georgia? Are they connected with the parliamentary campaign?”

Of course, Russia’s proposals are related to the elections, and that’s why they have been timed to the election period. Those proposals can influence the elections in the sense that Mikheil Saakashvili and his party can credit themselves with Russia’s lifting the economic sanctions and pass that for the result of their policy towards Russia. Therefore, voluntarily or not, Vladimir Putin gave a good present to his Georgian counterpart. The lifting of the sanctions will be good for many Georgian citizens who have various interests in Russia. The visa regime for those travelling to Russia will be more liberal, Georgians will be able to export their products to Russia (that couldn't be sold under sanctions) and to easily receive remittances and postal orders. All these positive changes in their lives will influence the election outcome.

Eurasian Home: “Which Georgian political forces back Russia’s initiatives and are ready to make a compromise, and which ones are against that?”

Almost all significant political forces in Georgia, including the ruling party, say that there are sufficient reasons for making the compromises with Russia that would not infringe upon Georgia’s national interests. Moreover, leader of the Industrialist Party Gogi Topadze has openly said in one of the TV interviews that concessions must be made to Russia. Even against a background of the recent events when the separatists backed by Russia have been provoking Georgia, the leading Georgian political parties think that the resource for a mutually advantageous dialogue and reasonable compromises has not been exhausted yet. However Tbilisi and Moscow view compromise and the way to reach it quite differently. Moscow, for example, sees it as a possibility of keeping Georgia under control.    

So, before the elections, particularly in the light of the recent events the Georgian moderate political forces are afraid to show their true positions toward Russia and have to become political opportunists.   

April 25, 2008




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