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STAINED “NEW LEAF” IN THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS

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ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi

Mikheil Saakashvili, re-elected for the second term at the January 5, 2008 early presidential elections, once again extends hand of friendship to Russia and proposes to “turn over a new leaf” in bilateral relations. In spite of the fact that this formula is doubtful from political point of view, Saakashvili nevertheless compelled by this proposal the Russian authorities to respond to his conciliatory gesture in a similar way.

Perhaps that was one of the reasons behind the statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, which has become unexpectedly favorable for the Georgian political establishment. Lavrov was reported to say that if the USA and Europe recognize Kosovo’s independence, Russia will be in no hurry to recognize that of Georgia’s breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Tbilisi is unlikely to hope that Lavrov’s statement will develop into concrete actions. But it appears that a diplomatic signal from Moscow has not fallen on deaf ears. The fact that the Georgian authorities no longer insist on the immediate withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers from the conflict zones and state that the conflicts must be settled with taking Russia’s interests into account, obliquely points out that Georgia is ready for compromises.

One of the key and challenging problems of the bilateral relations is Georgia’s possible joining NATO, to which Russia has an extremely negative attitude, of which it has told Georgia openly and repeatedly at all levels. This issue, inter alia, is closely associated with the settlement of conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, after holding plebiscite on January 5, with majority of the Georgians voting for the country’s entry into NATO, and after launching rearmament of the Georgian with the NATO weaponry, hardly will Moscow take seriously Saakashvili’s message to “turn over a new leaf”.

At the same time, the Georgian authorities face the politically challenging parliamentary elections in May. Therefore, Saakashvili’s government is striving for at least partial lifting of the Russian economic sanctions by hook or by crook in order to make up for the serious losses that had inflicted grave damage to the country’s economy and cost the ruling party the shortfall of many votes during the presidential elections. In this respect the most probable step, which Georgia might take to ingratiate itself with Russia is softening the position on Russia’s entry into WTO and giving the Russian companies new tempting opportunities of takeover of Georgia’s large economic entities.

It appears that in the nearest future we can witness a new stage of a strategic game in the Russian-Georgian relations.

January 31, 2008




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