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FOR HOW LONG WILL THEY HIDE THE CAT IN A BAG?
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Independent expert, Tbilisi
Mikheil Saakashvili who is seeking re-election to the second term in office as President of Georgia must be very lucky. The resolution of the issue concerning recognition of Kosovo’s independence by the West, which was due on December 10, has been postponed, even if not for long. It is for sure a dear present for Mr. Saakashvili and the ruling party in the run-up to the presidential election. It is not so difficult to picture at least a rough scenario of what could have happened in Georgia, had the West given the green light to Kosovo’s independence on December 10. Even if it had not meant immediate recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by the Russian Federation, the Kremlin’s determination to do so would have seriously hampered Saakashvili’s election campaign.
Another “present” for Saakashvili in the fight against his contenders is the temporary lull in the conflict zone. Had a major upsurge in fighting ignited the region, the prospect of holding a normal election would have disappeared.
In spite of the declarations that in case of recognizing the independence of the breakaway regions Georgia is “ready to rise to this challenge”, Tbilisi has literally nothing to respond with to Moscow’s ambition to take advantage of the possible recognition of Kosovo’s independence in the Georgian breakaway regions. Russia is running a certain risk by taking this step. However, if Moscow is quite sure of the necessity to take it, there would most probably be no way back, especially in the light of the nearing presidential election.
And even if the US did give a warning message that in case if Abkhazia and South Ossetia are recognized independent some could decide on recognizing as such certain Russian regions with centrifugal tendencies, it is most probably a mere psychological attack. Unlike Georgia, which has no control over Abkhazia and most of South Ossetia, Russian legislation applies in the whole of its territory.
The question of retrieving the breakaway territories is not exactly popular with the front-runners of the election campaign. None of them has yet come up with a definite and realistic plan of solving the conflicts, and, most importantly, no suggestion has been made on how to genuinely restore Georgia’s legislation in these territories. The candidates, including Saakashvili who was once determined to retrieve the territories during his first presidential term in office, seem to be knowingly ‘freezing’ the question and deliberately trying to shift the focus to social problems.
Those who see no analogy between the situation in Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and, hence, no reason to make a precedent in case if Kosovo is recognized independent, are certainly right. As a matter of fact, it was Georgians then living in Abkhazia who suffered from genocide and ethnic cleansing there, and were forced to become “internally displaced persons”.
But there is a reverse side of the coin. An alternative solution to the problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia has not been found, and international organizations (UN, OSCE and others), as well as Russia, of course, who are bending every effort to keep the status quo in these regions, are largely to blame. By the way, these efforts are not costing the international organizations much either politically or financially.
However, it is impossible to hide a cat in a bag. And it will not take long. In the spring, or, perhaps even earlier, the question will be put on the agenda again. And regardless of who will be President in Russia and Georgia, the situation in the Georgian conflict zones is likely to develop.
December, 24 2007
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Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Digest
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25.12.2007
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THE GEORGIAN TIMES: WITH OR WITHOUT RUSSIA?
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The foreign policy priorities of the presidential candidates. Most put Euro-Atlantic and NATO integration front and center, but good relations with Russia is, for some, another major consideration.
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30.11.2007
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IWPR: TV AT HEART OF GEORGIAN CRISIS
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With Georgia gearing up for a presidential election campaign in January and a degree of normality returning after the recent crisis, the Imedi television station remains at the centre of national and international controversy.
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19.11.2007
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EURASIANET.ORG: GEORGIA GETS NEW PRIME MINISTER
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In an apparent bid to reduce potential support for opposition candidates in Georgia’s upcoming special presidential election, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is reshuffling his government.
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Expert forum
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THE PRESIDENTIAL POLLS TOOK PLACE IN GEORGIA
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DAVID BERDZENISHVILI
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10.01.2008
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The Georgian opposition believes that Mikheil Saakashvili is not a legitimate President. Those polls were rigged everywhere. In the large regional centers Saakashvili took less than 50 percent of the vote.
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GEORGIA IN THE RUN-UP TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
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KONSTANTIN GABASHVILI, IVLIAN KHAINDRAVA
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24.12.2007
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"You perfectly know what the administrative resource is and can suggest what budget resources are being spent on Mr. Saakashvili’s election campaign, " said Ivlian Khaindrava.
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TV COMPANY “IMEDI” RESUMES ITS BROADCASTING IN GEORGIA
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GIORGI TARGAMADZE
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13.12.2007
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The Georgian government continues to put serious pressure on the journalists, editors and producers of the “IMEDI” company. Officials are using all the ways, for example, blackmailing and intimidating of the people including their relatives and families.
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PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA
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SHALVA NATELASHVILI
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03.12.2007
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As long as Mikheil Saakashvili stays in power, Georgia will be a superpresidential republic. So, it is necessary to elect a new President who would abolish this vicious system. But there are other questions. Which kind of a republic do we need? What powers should the President have? Who will elect him?
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PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA
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MALKHAZ SALDADZE
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03.12.2007
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If to take into account the control of the mass media by the propresidential United National Movement and the authorities’ monopoly on the financial and administrative resources, Saakashvili’s position is more advantageous than that of his rivals.
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GEORGIA'S UNITED OPPOSITION AGAINST MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI
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LEVAN GACHECHILADZE
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23.11.2007
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When I become President, Georgia will continue to be West- and NATO-oriented. I think it is the only way for a democratic country. I am also going to give great attention to the development of good-neighborly relations with Russia.
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GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN GEORGIA
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SERGEI MARKEDONOV
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20.11.2007
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There is no alternative to the incumbent president Mikheil Saakashvili in the forthcoming presidential polls in Georgia. Like it or not, he stands to win the forthcoming elections. The opposition cannot compete with Saakashvili.
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GEORGIA TO HOLD EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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ALEXANDER RONDELI
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15.11.2007
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The Georgian people do not want destabilization of the situation. So, channeling political activity into election campaign would stabilize the situation. In short, the force that swings the presidential polls, will make it into the Parliament.
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OPPOSITION RALLIES IN GEORGIA
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MERAB PACHULIA
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15.11.2007
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The collective distaste for Saakashvili has brought a wide segment of the society together and people have closed ranks for common objectives – free elections, rule of law, a system where the power of one person can be held in check.
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GEORGIA: CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE AUTHORITIES AND THE OPPOSITION
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DAVID BERDZENISHVILI
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14.11.2007
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The international organizations severely criticize the Georgian authorities’ actions - their means of breaking up the rally and suppression of the TV channels “Imedi”, “Kavkasia”. All in all, the Georgian President has reached a deadlock.
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GEORGIAN UNITED OPPOSITION VERSUS SAAKASHVILI
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GHIA NODIA
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07.11.2007
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Now the Georgian opposition needs a leader who can be an alternative to the current President. I doubt that the opposition’s sponsor Badri Patarkatsishvili can become such an alternative leader. Okruashvili is a more attractive political figure.
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OPPOSITION MARCHES IN GEORGIA
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ALEXANDER RONDELI
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08.10.2007
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Irakli Okruashvili was afraid of being arrested and decided to pursue a preemptive tactic making accusations against Mikheil Saakashvili. We do not know which of his accusations are true and which are false.
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SOUTH OSSETIA’S CLONED SEPARATISM
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OLEG FESENKO, VITALY KULIK
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13.06.2007
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Early in May the Tbilisi officials voiced that “it is necessary to carry on the political dialogue with the authorities of the Tskhinvali region”. But Mikheil Saakashvili’s government decided to negotiate with the “alternative President” of South Ossetia Dmitry Sanakoev, who is close to the Georgian government.
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Author’s opinion on other topics
TBILISI IS WAITING FOR “HELPING HAND”
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22 July 2009
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I believe that Barack Obama managed to avert another Russia-Georgia war and now Tbilisi is arguing more confidently that Russia’s war threat has been prevented. The question is for how long.
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GEORGIAN OPPOSITION AND GOVERNMENT MAKE A PAUSE
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08 June 2009
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After May 26 (Georgia’s Independence Day), when an impressively large-scale rally organized by the opposition had shown that too many people in Georgia sought to make Mikheil Saakashvili and his team resign, the opposition and the ruling party decided to weaken their confrontation and to step back from the “Red Line”.
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PROTEST ACTIONS IN GEORGIA ARE COMING TO A HEAD
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20 April 2009
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How long the opposition’s rally in Tbilisi will last and how long can it maintain the protest mood? Many have asked this question since the seventh day of the protest rally when it became clear that the opposition had failed to take to the streets the number of protesters, which would be a weighty argument for the authorities to effect changes.
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GEORGIA: GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION AND EXTERNAL PLAYERS
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23 March 2009
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The external players, which have their own plans and interests in Georgia and the Caucasus region, have become increasingly involved in monitoring of the internal developments in the country along with raising Georgia’s political temperature.
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DOES THE US–GEORGIA CHARTER ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP CHALLENGE RUSSIA?
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14 January 2009
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It is difficult to forecast how diligently the Administration of President Barack Obama will follow the above-mentioned articles of the Charter. But there is a high probability (taking into consideration the increased tension in the Russia-U.S. relations) that Russia would consider the Charter as a challenge to its interests in South Caucasus.
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FIVE YEARS AFTER THE ROSE REVOLUTION
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01 December 2008
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For the first time, Georgia has not celebrated the anniversary of the Rose Revolution in a traditional pompous way and the authorities have not boasted about their successes as they had done annually on 23 November since 2003.
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WAR IN SOUTH OSSETIA – TIME TO MAKE WISE DECISIONS STILL REMAINS
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12 August 2008
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The guns are bellowing now in South Ossetia and Georgia, and muses of those who might mull over the solution of the grave crisis, are still silent. Many things including the people’s lives depend on how long the diplomats and policy-makers will be inactive.
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BURJANADZE RETURNS?!
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11 July 2008
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Ex-chairwoman of the Georgian Parliament Nino Burjanadze who had scandalously quitted President Mikheil Saakashvili’s team right before the May 21, 2008 parliamentary elections, returned to politics the very way that was most expected from her cautious and pragmatic mind.
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THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
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25 April 2008
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Almost all significant political forces in Georgia, including the ruling party, say that there are sufficient reasons for making the compromises with Russia that would not infringe upon Georgia’s national interests.
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IS THE “BEACON OF LIBERTY” DYING OUT?
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06 December 2007
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The “Beacon of Liberty”, that, to believe U.S. President George Bush, Georgia embodied in May 2005, when he made a visit to the country, is dying out, even though the West does not want to believe that and continues to give Saakashvili and his government a helping hand.
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IS GEORGIA ON THE BRINK OF A NEW CIVIL CONFRONTATION?
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16 October 2007
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Barely had the Saakashvili’s team got rid of Okruashvili, when a much stronger opponent, oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili, who is expected to become leader of the united opposition, came up as a new opponent to Saakashvili.
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THE OKRUASHVILI FACTOR
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08 October 2007
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Irakli Okruashvili may use his arrest as the political dividend that he lacked until recently. Now he is unlikely to be reproached for the implicit connections with the authorities, as it was often done in recent times.
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THE FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA: SOCIAL ATTITUDES
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01 August 2007
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The presidential and parliamentary elections in Georgia will take place in a year and a half. However, the voters’ attitudes and opinions about the policy pursued in the country are already in the process of shaping.
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THE “SANAKOEV” OPERATION
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03 July 2007
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The Georgian authorities did their utmost to convince the Europeans in Brussels that Dmitry Sanakoev was not Tbilisi’s puppet, but a representative of the Ossetian population in Georgia including the breakaway region.
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SHADE OF KOSOVO OVER GEORGIA
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13 June 2007
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The pending recognition of independence of the Serbian province Kosovo by the United Nations and attempts by Russia to apply the “Kosovo precedent” to the conflict zones in the post-Soviet space might reverberate negatively for Georgia.
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NEW POLITICAL CULTURE IN GEORGIA – PHILOSOPHY OF “WASHING AWAY”
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25 May 2007
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The current events in Georgia clearly indicate that after the Rose Revolution a new political culture is being aggressively planted in the country. Apart from other goals, it is most likely aimed at a complete replacement of the national Georgian traditions and values with the new philosophy.
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GEORGIA’S WAY TO NATO STREAMLINED
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19 February 2007
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Members of the “National Forum” and some other opposition parties fear that Georgia may join NATO without Abkhazia and South Ossetia, thus losing those territories for good.
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MOSCOW HAS TAKEN A STEP TOWARDS TBILISI… WHAT COMES NEXT?!
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26 January 2007
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Russia has overestimated the effect of its sanctions against Georgia. It seems that the Kremlin officials have finally counted and compared their losses and gains from the sanctions against Georgia and ruled out that they better to loosen the grip.
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WILL GEORGIA ADOPT A NEW CONSTITUTION?
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17 January 2007
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While signing the constitutional amendments on January 10, Saakashvili made no secret of the fact that they were introduced to “please friends and disappoint enemies”, and immediately he suggested working on a new Constitution.
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GEORGIA IN THE RUN-UP TO NATIONAL ELECTIONS
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13 December 2006
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The relationship between Russia and Georgia which has been marked by tension and confrontations bears influence on Georgia’s political landscape and forthcoming national elections.
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MOSCOW HAS NO MORE CREDENCE TO TBILISI
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28 November 2006
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Tbilisi intends to show Moscow and the whole international community that the Saakashvili Administration is eager to restart the two countries’ dialogue.
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HOW GEORGIAN – RUSSIAN KNOT WILL BE UNTIED?
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07 November 2006
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Now that the Georgian-Russian confrontation is gaining momentum and is approaching the dangerous point, the sides appear to think over in what mode they will continue coexistence.
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