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JOHN MARONE, KYIV
UKRAINE'S INDEPENDENCE DEPENDENT ON RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
Now, more than any time since the country gained independence 17 years ago, Ukraine looks destined to come back under Russian hegemony. Ironically, the more the pro-Western administration of President Viktor Yushchenko resists this outcome, the greater the chances of it coming about. Conflicts in bilateral relations have escalated in direct proportion to a paralyzing power struggle in Kyiv. However, the deciding factor in the fledgling nation's future may be an indecisive West, caught up in a global economic crisis of its own creation.
By any estimation, relations between Kyiv and Moscow have reached an all-time low. Many of the conflicts have been simmering for years. Indeed, they are often rooted in a history that was put on hold following the First, then the Second World Wars. Anyone who expected the Russians to simply accept the fate dealt to them following the end of the Cold War would do well to restudy this history.
For example, there is the issue of language. Maintaining the widespread use of Russian in Ukraine and other former Soviet republics is seen as a useful lever of influence by Moscow (no less than by Western powers in Africa or other former colonies). But Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has made promotion of Ukrainian one of the pillars of his pro-Western platform of policies since coming to power in 2005. For a variety of reason, a large percentage of Ukrainian citizens resent now having to watch movies and listen to newscasts in Ukrainian only. The authorities in Kyiv have nevertheless stepped up the linguistic pressure by recently moving to ban Russian channels from Ukrainian cable TV. Although the attack is likely aimed more at the pro-Moscow view of many of these channels, the result has predictably been stiff opposition from both Moscow and Ukraine's significant population of Russian speakers in the country's south and east.
Then, there is Crimea, which is being increasingly (re)claimed for Russia by Russian politicians as well as by many of the peninsula's Russian-speaking citizens. In response, Yushchenko's Foreign Ministry has upped the anti by suggesting that the Russians remove their fleet from Sevastopol before the due date of 2017. Undeterred, the Russian fleet has flaunted any circumscription on its activities by Kyiv, while Moscow simultaneously questions the sea border between Crimea and Southern Russia and pursues plans to build a bridge between the two. If the Chinese were forced to wait until 1997 to regain control of Hong Kong from the British, what does Ukraine expect?
Well, if this question were posed to President Yushchenko, the answer might be: NATO membership. But taking into consideration that the Russians never liked giving up Crimea in the first place, and have become particularly vocal on this issue as their hydrocarbon-funded status on the world stage has improved, adding the expansion of Moscow's traditional enemy to the equation is certainly not going to ease the tension. As for the Bush administration, it just keeps talking about strategic cooperation, even as it goes forward with its ill-timed decision to place a missile defense system in Central Europe. The Russians are, of course, supposed to be good sports about all this, although the Cuban Missile Crisis, a classic example of the shoe being on the other foot, took place in living memory.
Getting back to Mr. Yushchenko, it's really impossible at this point to work out whether his NATO bid was meant to deter a Russian military incursion or whether he just stumbled by mistake onto the road of a self-fulfilling prophecy. In either case, Mr. Yushchenko didn't get the warning sent out by Moscow during its invasion of Georgia last summer. To everyone else, the message was crystal clear: Moscow is no longer going to allow the West to move in on Russia's traditional sphere of influence, especially when Moscow's only source of influence (i.e. hydrocarbon exports) on the West is at stake. You can call this Moscow's version of the Monroe Doctrine or "The Empire Strikes Back," but no one from the West came to Georgia's rescue. In Ukraine, the pro-Russian opposition even went on the offensive in accusing the president of illegally supplying weapons to the Georgians.
Caught between a rock and hard place, Mr. Yushchenko has increasingly resorted to 'barking at the bear'. He may not be able to convince Russia to stop raising the price of its crucial gas exports to Ukraine, but he can travel the globe on a quixotic campaign to get the great Ukrainian famine recognized as genocide perpetrated by Russia. In between, the president has played with other historical powder kegs such as the role of Ukrainian nationalists during World War II. And let's not forget Yushchenko's drive to unite the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – and thereby reduce the influence of the patriarch in Moscow.
Maybe, in the future, Yushchenko will be praised for his unbending efforts to fortify the Ukrainian national identity. But in the mean time, he would do well to keep his eye on the ball, as relations with Russia ultimately influence Ukraine's domestic stability as well as its relations with the West.
At home, the president's public support has dropped to an inkling of what he enjoyed as the leader of the country's Orange Revolution. Since then, Yushchenko has additionally alienated virtually all of his political allies, the latest one being parliamentary speaker Arseny Yatseniuk, a man about as politically controversial as a cocker spaniel. But the worst enemy the president has made is his one-time co-revolutionary Yulia Tymoshenko, a political pit bull with her eye on the presidency. Much more 'flexible' in her views on Russia and always the populist to the Ukrainian people, Prime Minister Tymoshenko's victory in the upcoming presidential race may turn out to be a pyrrhic one: There may not be much of a country left to be president of by 2010. Although Ukraine has had to go through painful repeats of the last parliamentary and presidential elections, the country remains as divided as ever. The courts have been prostituted to political interests, and the parliament is dysfunctional. Worse yet, ordinary citizens are still bracing for the full effects that the world financial crisis will have on their fledgling financial existence. The collapse of the stock market and national currency have already confirmed their traditional suspicion of capitalism.
And despite the recent commitment by international financial institutions, Ukraine is looking increasingly alone. It no longer appears as the next stop in almost two decades of Western expansion to the East. Europe has long been divided over its relationship with the former Soviet republic. Power houses like Germany and France have good reason to court Russian energy, which is why both countries were instrumental in putting Ukraine's NATO bid on the back burner during the last summit in Bucharest. In the Ukrainian corner are EU newcomers Poland and the Baltic states, who are all bark without US teeth. And now that Barrack Obama is set to take the helm in America, a spirit of compromise – including compromise with Russia – may eclipse the confrontation of the Bush years, leaving independent Ukraine more dependent on Russia.
John Marone, a columnist of Eurasian Home website, Kyiv, Ukraine
November 17, 2008
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Other materials on this topic
Hot topics
Digest
17.11.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: COERCION TO ACTION
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It is pointless to debate about who was behind Yatsenyuk’s dismissal – Yushchenko or his alter-ego Baloha: if Yushchenko had not profited from his confidant, he would have long sacrificed him.
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24.10.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: GLOBAL FLUTTER IN EGGS
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The panic will subside, and life will resume its normal course. Wages and salaries will grow slowly, prices will rise rapidly, but we have gotten used to it and will continue to blame the government.
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13.10.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: EARLY ELECTION IN UKRAINE - DANGEROUS EXPERIMENT
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This article does not assess the behavior of major Ukrainian political forces and their leaders as much has been and will be written about that. My point is that these all-versus-all political games obscure important economic problems which tend to aggravate underlying conditions of political instability.
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06.10.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: GAS CUSHION
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On 2 October 2008, thanks to long preparatory work, negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian prime ministers, Yuliya Tymoshenko and Vladimir Putin took place after all, and were fairly successful.
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04.10.2008
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GALLUP.COM: UKRAINIANS MAY OPPOSE PRESIDENT’S PRO-WESTERN GOALS
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A Gallup Poll found a strong majority of Ukrainians (65%) saying their leadership is taking the country in the wrong direction and only about one in six (16%) expressing confidence in their national government.
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15.09.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: FIELD REPORTS
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This week all those involved in the current stage of the permanent Ukrainian political crisis played a kind of make-believe game. Inside Ukraine the President made believe a coup d’etat and in Europe he made believe “a normal democratic process.”
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08.09.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: GOING ALL THE WAY?
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Strangely enough, the long-awaited political event that happened last week came as a bolt from the blue, especially to those who had been working the hardest for it. The scared leaders put up a brave front, trying to make everyone believe that it was all in their plans.
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01.09.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: WAR TOMORROW?
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This year the question of Ukraine’s ability to adequately respond to internal and external challenges arose in a new aspect. The events in South Ossetia posed a new question: is Ukraine able to defend itself if confronted with a military threat?
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23.08.2008
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GALLUP.COM: RUSSIAN LANGUAGE ENJOYING A BOOST IN POST-SOVIET STATES
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Former president Vladimir Putin decreed 2007 as "The Year of the Russian Language." Gallup Polls reveal increasingly favorable attitudes toward learning the Russian language in several post-Soviet states, most notably in Georgia, Moldova, and Armenia.
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04.08.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: THE POLITICS OF NATIONAL RUIN
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Since the collapse of the USSR and the Orange Revolution, Ukraine has passed through three defining moments of statehood. The most significant of these moments was the establishment of Ukraine as an independent state.
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28.07.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: RUSSIA’S PROFILE VS CHANGES
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Regrettably enough, Ukraine’s image created by the Russian mass media and Russia’s image as created by the Ukrainian mass media are far from the truth. So what is Russia really like today?
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09.07.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: ABOUT POLITICAL GAS AND GAS POLICY
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The hearty welcome of Yuliya Tymoshenko accorded a week ago by Vladimir Putin was impressing. Some say that Putin gave Tymoshenko the chance to portray her visit to Moscow as a victorious because he is allergic to the President of Ukraine, who symbolizes his political deafeat of 2004.
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20.06.2008
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RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS: A SPECIAL CASE?
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Ukraine, in the wake of its Orange Revolution, has earned the image of a leading post-Soviet country regarding the pace of liberal reform. However, this perception of the country is to a large extent a kind of payment in advance rather than a reflection of actual results.
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05.05.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: “UKRAINE WILL BECOME A NATO MEMBER AND WILL HAVE GOOD RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA”, VOLODYMYR OHRYZKO
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Interview with Volodymyr Ohryzko, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
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15.04.2008
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ZERKALO NEDELI: NATO STRENGTHENS UKRAINE AND ITSELF
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"NATO has always taken Russia into account when considering the modalities of enlargement, the timing of it and the likely consequences of it. But it has never granted Russia a veto over this process or a role to play in it," James Sherr.
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Expert forum
VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE ELECTS A NEW SPEAKER
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YURY YAKIMENKO
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19.11.2008
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A parliamentary majority should be formed in order to elect a new speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. This majority could become a new coalition.
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STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE IN THE NEW INDEPENDENT STATES
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KIRILL GAVRILOV, ELENA KOZIEVSKAYA, ELENA YATSENKO
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11.11.2008
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One of the major resources that the New Independent States inherited from the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union is the Russian language. During several generations the Russian people have put all the huge human and financial resources in its development. What is the current position and what are the prospects of the Russian language in the NIS?
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE. CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
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VADIM KARASYOV, MIKHAIL POGREBINSKY, VITALY PORTNIKOV
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17.10.2008
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There is a question about the situation after the elections. But why should it change? If the elections outcome is about the same as in the last elections (the public opinion polls show that), the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine will not have the majority to build a coalition.
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DISSOLUTION OF THE VERKHOVNA RADA: POSSIBILITIES AND RISKS
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VITALY BALA
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15.10.2008
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Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko herself have reacted negatively to President Viktor Yushchenko’s decision to dissolve the Verkhovha Rada and to hold early parliamentary elections.
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UKRAINE IS FORCED TO CHOOSE UNSTABILITY
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STANISLAV PRITCHIN
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14.10.2008
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On October 8, in his message to the people President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko announced the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada. His speech was based on the allegation that Yuliya Tymoshenko and her decisions “threaten Ukraine”.
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THE BREAKUP OF THE 'ORANGE' COALITION
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VITALY BALA
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17.09.2008
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The main reason for the breakup of the 'orange' coalition is that President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko does not want to accept Yuliya Tymoshenko's wide popularity in Ukraine.
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THE FUTURE OF VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO AND POLITICAL CRISIS IN UKRAINE
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VADIM KARASYOV, VITALY PORTNIKOV
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16.09.2008
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"Currently there are a few people in Ukraine backing Viktor Yushchenko’s nation building and cultural project, and if the early elections were called the votes could be distributed, in the main, between the Party of Regions and Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc," Vitaly Portnikov said.
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YULIYA TYMOSHENKO IMPROVES THE RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW
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VITALY BALA
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06.08.2008
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When Yuliya Tymoshenko was firstly going to visit Russia as Prime Minister after the last parliamentary elections, I believed that this might be a breakthrough in the Russian-Ukrainian relations.
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“SEA BREEZE-2008” AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE’S JOINING NATO
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VITALY PORTNIKOV
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22.07.2008
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The holding of “Sea Breeze” military exercises and Ukraine’s joining NATO should be regarded as two different processes. Some people want to unite them, but Kyiv has not applied for the NATO membership yet. Ukraine has not received the NATO Membership Action Plan and, apparently, will not recieve it in December.
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THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE IN THE CIS COUNTRIES
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ALEKSEY MITROFANOV, KONSTANTIN SIMONOV
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24.06.2008
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"I would like to mention three “agents” that can improve the situation with the Russian language in the post-Soviet space. Those include our government, NGOs and Russian companies", Konstantin Simonov.
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INFORMAL CIS SUMMIT IN ST.PETERSBURG
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VLADIMIR ZHARIKHIN
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09.06.2008
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The main result to be drawn from the informal CIS summit is that under the new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev Russia's policy in the post-Soviet space will not change drastically.
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UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
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VALERY CHALIY
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06.06.2008
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It is intolerable that, according to public opinion polls in Russia, Ukraine ranks third among the unfriendly states. In Ukraine Russia ranks first as a friendly one. Probably, this indicates that the information policies in Ukraine and Russia are different.
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VLADIMIR PUTIN'S FOREIGN POLICY LEGACY. INTERNATIONAL AGENDA FOR DMITRY MEDVEDEV
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ANDREY KOKOSHIN, FIRST DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE STATE DUMA COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND HIGH TECHNOLOGIES; FYODOR LUKYANOV, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF "RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS" MAGAZINE
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16.04.2008
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"The change consists in the fact that Russia can no longer influence the domestic policy of its neighbors. When that became clear Russia chose the pragmatic approach," Fyodor Lukyanov.
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DOES NATO ENLARGEMENT POSE A THREAT TO RUSSIA?
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KONSTANTIN ZATULIN, ALEXANDER KONOVALOV, TATYANA PARKHALINA, OLES DONIY, LEONID KOZHARA, IVAN ZAETS, ANDREW KUCHINS
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07.04.2008
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"Why do the Central and Eastern European countries seek to join NATO? For many of them it is a way to join the EU. Many countries took this as institutionalization of independence from Moscow. For many countries it was a way to return to Europe," Tatyana Parkhalina.
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THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE AS THE GEOPOLITICAL POTENTIAL OF THE RUSSIAN WORLD
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ELENA YATSENKO
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18.06.2007
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According to the official data, provided by a number of international organizations, at present 233 million people on Earth speak Russian, with 164 million having it as their native language and 69 million as their second language.
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Opinion
UKRAINE'S INDEPENDENCE DEPENDENT ON RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
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John Marone |
17.11.2008
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Now, more than any time since the country gained independence 17 years ago, Ukraine looks destined to come back under Russian hegemony. Ironically, the more the pro-Western administration of President Viktor Yushchenko resists this outcome, the greater the chances of it coming about.
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UKRAINIAN LEADERS TURN THEIR BACKS ON FINANCIAL CRISIS
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John Marone |
27.10.2008
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Along with Eastern Europe's other so-called emerging economies, Ukraine has been posting impressive rates of growth over the past several years. Now all that has been undone, and everyone is hoping that the International Monetary Fund will come to Ukraine's rescue.
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THERE WILL BE NO WAR
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Boris Kagarlitsky |
24.10.2008
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It looks like there will be no war between Russia and Ukraine. It is clear that this fact will upset many in Moscow and Kyiv, but, unfortunately, there is a need to face realities. The efforts made by militarism heralds, admirers of Ukrainian hetman Ivan Mazepa and defenders of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet proved to be futile.
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ELECTIONS IN LIEU OF STABILITY
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John Marone |
09.10.2008
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Ukraine is going to hold its fifth general elections in as many years, but don't expect the upcoming parliamentary vote to stabilize the country's chaotic political arena any time soon. Ever since President Viktor Yushchenko was elected on a pro-Western platform back in 2005, the seats of power in the former Soviet republic have been contested in a no-holds-barred dogfight that is desperate to the point of absurdity.
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HOW TO QUARREL WITH A NEIGHBOUR
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Boris Kagarlitsky |
11.09.2008
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It seems that after the conflict with Georgia all we need is to clash with Ukraine. A lot of politicians both in Russia and Ukraine would definitely like it to happen. Caucasian crisis resulted in a new quarrel over Sevastopol, this time provoked by the Ukrainian side.
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ENOUGH GRAND-STANDING BY THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT
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Jules Evans |
27.08.2008
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The typical criticism of the UK’s Foreign Office is the one eloquently expressed in John Le Carre’s The Constant Gardener - that they are pitiless practitioners of real-politik who care more about stability than idealism, and who only really work to protect the interests of British corporations, rather than British values. But on Russia, the Foreign Office seems to have erred on the other side.
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TRUE COLORS - UKRAINE'S REACTION TO CONFLICT IN SOUTH OSSETIA
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John Marone |
18.08.2008
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By sending troops into Georgia earlier this month, the Kremlin has shown its willingness to use force to check the advance of the West into what it considers Russia's zone of influence. The pretext for the invasion, Georgia's military clampdown on its separatist region of South Ossetia, is irrelevant.
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BAD HABITS ARE CONTAGIOUS
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Boris Kagarlitsky |
14.08.2008
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Georgia has resolutely condemned Russia’s actions in Chechnya. Russia has severely criticized NATO actions towards Serbia. Later on the Georgian authorities tried to do the same thing in South Ossetia as the Russian authorities had done in Chechnya. Moscow decided to treat Georgia in the same way as NATO had treated Serbia.
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RELIGION IN UKRAINE - THERE'S NOTHING UNIFYING ABOUT IT
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John Marone |
28.07.2008
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On Friday, July 25, the Russian Foreign Ministry released a statement in which it noted that "events dedicated to the 1,020th anniversary of the acceptance of Christianity by Rus are being held in Kyiv in an atmosphere of disrespect toward the Russian Orthodox Church and the feelings of millions of Orthodox believers in Russia and Ukraine."
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HISTORY, RELIGION AND LANGUAGE – KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL
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John Marone |
22.07.2008
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Remember the shell game, in which the unsuspecting player is challenged to follow a little ball with his eyes as it rolls from under one shell to the next with lightning speed? When the game operator finally stops, the player is asked to guess which shell the ball lies under in order to win a prize. However, in most cases, the operator has already managed to slip the ball into his own hands, thereby making any guess by the player a losing one.
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PLAYING UP TO PUTIN
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John Marone |
01.07.2008
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Last weekend saw the visit of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to Moscow, where she met with Vladimir Putin for the first time since he went from being Russia’s president to heading his country’s government. During the joint press conference both premiers chose their words carefully, demonstrating the sensitivity of current Russian-Ukrainian relations.
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NATO EXPANSION – DON’T EXPECT THE RUSSIANS TO AGREE
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John Marone |
18.06.2008
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If NATO can bring Ukrainians rule of law and a decent living standard, it would already have justified its expansion. But judging by the way other Western reforms have been perverted in Ukraine, one couldn’t be blamed for having serious doubts. Probably with more candidness, Mr. Yushchenko pointed out that Ukraine can join any international organization that it likes.
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WESTERN INTEGRATION – THE GREAT ORANGE HOPE
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John Marone |
05.06.2008
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his one-time ally Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko have increasingly traded blows over the country’s budget, privatization, energy policy and, most recently, the Kyiv mayoral elections; however, when it comes to foreign policy, the two politicians who rose to power during Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution show unusual and possibly even unintended solidarity.
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STICKING OUT THE UKRAINIAN TONGUE
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John Marone |
30.05.2008
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The crusade to raise the Ukrainian language heads and shoulders above Russian continues apace in Kyiv and other parts of the country, but as with most crusades, it’s not clear what the end goal is. Ukraine’s State Cinema Service recently announced that all films made in Ukraine must be in Ukrainian starting in July. All foreign films shown in Ukraine are already required to be dubbed or subtitled in Ukrainian.
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RESTING BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
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John Marone |
13.05.2008
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Over the holiday-filled weekend, Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov arrived in the history-filled city of Sevastopol to challenge the history and geopolitical relations of Ukraine and Russia. The official purpose of Mr. Luzhkov's visit was to take part in the celebration of the 225th anniversary of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which fell on Europe Day (May 11) and just after Victory Day (May 9).
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RUSSIAN PREMIER VISITS KYIV: DID HE CALL AT A BAD TIME?
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John Marone |
06.05.2008
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Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov led a government delegation to Kyiv on April 25. It was only a one-day visit, and Zubkov is expected to be replaced sometime this month anyway, following the inauguration of the new Russian president.
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UKRAINE'S NATO BID - IT'S NOT OVER YET
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John Marone |
07.04.2008
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NATO leaders arrived for their summit in Bucharest last week in an atmosphere of uncertainty bordering on mistrust. Outgoing US president George Bush continued to push for the inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance, while European heavyweights Germany and France voiced the opposition of older member states to further eastern expansion.
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NATO SUPPORTERS GO ON THE OFFENSIVE
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John Marone |
21.01.2008
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The issue of whether Ukraine should join NATO has returned to the public agenda, sparking off heated debates between supporters and opponents of the country’s bid. In the past, such polemics have usually meant proponents of Euro-Atlantic unity coming under attack by pro-Russian factions in the run up to an important election or a NATO-sponsored military exercise on home soil.
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Our authors
Geopolitical influence is an expensive thing. The Soviet Union realized that well supporting the Communist regimes and movements all over the world including Cuba and North Korea. The current Russian authorities also understood that when they agreed that Ukraine would not pay Russia $40 billion for the gas in return for extension of the lease allowing Russia's Black Sea Fleet to be stationed in the Crimea.
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The case of Kurmanbek Bakiyev is consistent with the logic of the Belarusian authorities’ actions towards the plane crash near Smolensk. The decisions not to demonstrate the “Katyn” film and not to announce the mourning were made emotionally, to spite Moscow and Warsaw, without thinking about their consequences and about reaction of the society and the neighbouring countries.
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Explosions take place in Russia again. The last week of March started with terrorist acts at the Moscow metro stations which were followed by blasts in the Dagestani city of Kizlar. The horror spread from the metro to the whole city.
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych symbolically selected Brussels as his first foreign visit upon taking the oath of office in what can only be seen as an exercise in public relations. The new government of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov headed straight for Moscow shortly thereafter with the sole intention of cutting a deal.
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The protest actions, which the Russian extraparliamentary opposition had scheduled for March 20, were held as planned, they surprised or frightened nobody. Just as it had been expected, the activists of many organizations supporting the Wrath Day took to the streets… but saw there only the policemen, journalists and each other.
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As I write, angry demonstrations continue in Tehran and elsewhere in the Islamic Republic of Iran, over what the young demonstrators perceive as the blatant rigging of the presidential election to keep Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power for another five years. Reports suggest at least eight protestors have been killed by police.
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The cri… no the word will not be uttered. Now that President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin have finally allowed themselves to belatedly use the word, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for me to spit it out of these lips. It’s c-this and c-that. If there was C-Span in Russia then it would be c-ing all day and all night long.
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