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THE GEORGIANS DISLIKE THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT, BUT HAVE NOTHING AGAINST THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE
DAVID BERDZENISHVILI,
One of the Republican Party of Georgia leaders, member of the Alliance for Georgia, Tbilisi
The Georgian political establishment and the whole society share an opinion that in August 2008 Russia was aggressive and acted improperly. Russia invaded Georgia, which is acknowledged by all the political forces regardless of their status, by the authorities and by the radical and constructive opposition.
The new Georgian authorities will seek to normalize the relations with Moscow, but those will be only “cold relations”. No Georgian politician will re-establish diplomatic relations with Russia till the Abkhazian and South Ossetian issues are solved.
Economic contacts with Russia are possible, the Georgian market is open for the Russian capital. It would be right to open the Russian market for the Georgian goods and to restore the relations in the humanitarian and cultural spheres.
On the other hand, we realize that Mikheil Saakashvili furthered the conflict escalation. He did not use all the resources to prevent the armed conflict, though it was possible to avert the war in South Ossetia.
In Georgia the EU commission headed by Heidi Tagliavini is investigating the reasons for the August conflict. The Russian as well as Georgian sides may be acknowledged as participants in the war.
After the conflict Russia was not isolated internationally. NATO cooperates with Russia, Barack Obama negotiates with the Russian authorities. This resembles the détente epoch in the 1970s, but there is an important difference: USSR was a superpower, while Russia is not a superpower but is a large regional country, there are many such countries in the world.
It is believed in Russia that the U.S. was punished in Georgia in August 2008 and that for the first time after the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia counterattacked another country and won, but this is a stereotype. Russia waged war on the small Georgia not on the U.S.
In 10 or 15 years Georgia can achieve Abkhazia and South Ossetia reintegration, if it becomes attractive and secure for the Ossetians and the Abkhazians and if it builds democracy.
The conflict did not change Georgia’s foreign-policy guidelines, it continues to be a pro-Western country. A serious anti-Western or pro-Russian political force has never appeared in Georgia.
The issue of rapprochement with NATO is the most popular after that with the EU. And yet less and less Georgians would like Georgia to join NATO. Before August 2008 60-65% of the people supported Georgia’s joining NATO, and after August the figure lowered by 10-15%. The main reason is that Georgians saw the protection from Russia in the rapprochement with NATO, but in August the population was not protected.
For all that, russophobia did not appear in Georgia after the war. The Georgian people do not like the Soviet Union and believe that modern Russia follows the Soviet policy. The Georgians dislike the Russian government, but they have nothing against the Russian people.
As regards the “five-day war” influence on Georgia’s policy, Mikheil Saakashvili’s power has become weaker, he lost very much. Mr Saakashvili’s approval rating became equal to that of “National Movement” party and it is 15-16%. Mikheil Saakashvili used to be more popular than “National Movement”, but now the “good ruler – bad entourage” does not work. In Georgia the approval ratings of President Mikheil Saakashvili and his “National Movement” are not more than 30%.
If the next elections are not rigged seriously, Mikheil Saakashvili and his team will be in the same situation as the Moldovan Communists are at best. But there is a different tradition in Georgia: if the party in power loses the elections, it ceases to exist as a party.
In April the opposition started organizing mass protest actions that blemished Mikheil Saakashvili’s reputation in his supporters’ eyes. Mr Saakashvili could not crush the protests as he had done on November 7, 2007. This way, the President showed that he had failed to withstand pressure of the opposition. He was not able even to hold up the protests since this decision had been made only by the opposition.
Mikheil Saakashvili has a difficult time and he hastens openly disregarding the recommendations by Joe Biden, U.S. Vice President. Joe Biden, during his recent visit to Georgia, said that there was a need to carry out the judicial reform, amend the election laws and widen the mass media freedom. Those demands are the opposition’s “three pillars”.
But instead, Mikheil Saakashvili intensified the repressions. Ten political prisoners are among the Republican Party members alone. Trials are under way and some people have already been convicted, although nobody believes in the charges. The President quickly confirmed a new Ombudsman, who was likely to be loyal to the authorities. After Joe Biden’s visit, Mikheil Saakashvili started counterattacking the opposition.
The municipal elections, including the Tbilisi mayoral elections, will be held soon. The mayoral elections are scheduled for May 30, 2010. Mikheil Saakashvili is in a hurry to create his political rear-end and his leverage over the opposition, but he has no big opportunities for that. That’s why the Georgian authorities may bring forward the elections. This way, Mr Saakashvili keeps the opposition in the dark preventing stable political blocs and alliances from being formed.
The other tactics is search for a puppet party in the opposition. During the parliamentary elections of 2008 the Christian-Democratic Party led by Giorgi Targamadze played such a role. But in Tbilisi their approval rating is lower than 4%.
As regards Mikheil Saakashvili’s foreign policy after August, 2008, he declares the pro-Western course, but does nothing to follow it. More than that, now he speaks about NATO very little.
Mikheil Saakashvili’s approval rating on the world arena fell. I cannot remember a serious Mr Saakashvili’s visit abroad in the recent times. The world leaders are beware of Mikheil Saakashvili, but recognize Georgia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Over the past year “Alliance for Georgia”, which includes the Republican Party, has strengthened its leadership. In Tbilisi our approval rating is just higher than that of “National Movement”. Irakli Alasania, the Alliance leader, is the main presidential candidate. We rank second in Georgia after the ruling party that enjoys 25-26% of voter support. But the pro-presidential party is unlikely to reach 30%.
On the other hand, Georgia’s opposition is mixed. The real political actors include “Alliance for Georgia”, then “National Forum”, the Labor Party and the Christian-Democratic Party. If Levan Gachechiladze’s non-governmental organization “We Will Keep Georgia” becomes a party, it will be a serious political force.
Former Speaker Nino Burjanadze’s situation is bad. Her approval rating does not grow, the authorities are repressing her party, which is the only thing that is common for us – the authorities watch our actions.
On the other hand, she has solved a half of all her problems, so nobody doubts that she is an oppositionist, all that remained for her to do was to become a true opposition player. If she wants to get everything, she will get nothing. But if she acts adequately, she will have a chance to be elected to the Parliament.
August 11, 2009
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