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THE “SANAKOEV” OPERATION
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi
In spite of the fact that some Russian and Georgian policy makers and experts have taken the skeptical view on the address given last week by Dmitry Sanakoev, the head of the pro-Georgian provisional administration of South Ossetia, in Brussels, it can be considered a tactical success of Tbilisi. Only two months ago the EU political bodies doubted that Sanakoev was a serious political figure and had a suspicious attitude towards the idea of creation of the provisional administration in the breakaway region by the Georgian authorities. Presumably during these two months the official Tbilisi has succeeded in convincing its European partners to consider Dmitry Sanakoev as a worthwhile figure and deal with him. Simultaneously, the tension deteriorated between Russia (a recognized sponsor of the Ossetian separatists) and the European Union, which, I think, forced the European politicians to change their position in favor of Georgia.
The wording, idea and political message of Dmitry Sanakoev’s address revealed a “Georgian editor”. The Georgian authorities did their utmost to convince the Europeans in Brussels that Dmitry Sanakoev was not Tbilisi’s puppet, but a representative of the Ossetian population in Georgia including the breakaway region.
Dmitry Sanakoev voiced the major political messages to the EU that can be briefly formulated as follows: Tbilisi is not going to use force to solve the problem, it is ready to compromise, but the EU should be involved in the conflict settlement in order to neutralize the forces (i.e. Russia) that prevent the conflict from being resolved. Another target audience of Dmitry Sanakoev’s address were the Ossetians who live in the area controlled by separatists. The speech was broadcast live on the pro-Georgian channel “Alania”. But the separatists cut off the power supply in Tskhinvali and the neighboring areas, so that the common Ossetians could not watch Dmitry Sanakoev’s address. The purport of Dmitry Sanakoev’s address to his fellow countrymen was that the region could be integrated into the EU within Georgia with the rights of a wide autonomy and get all the benefits that the similar European areas have. He cited South Tyrol as an example.
Dmitry Sanakoev made a special emphasis on the relevance of the EU’s help in restitution of property to its owners having suffered during the military operation in 1990-1992. This is quite understandable. Most probably, Dmitry Sanakoev’s administration is simply trying to win over the Ossetians via financial and economic means.
Dmitry Sanakoev tried to convince the European audience that he was not Tbilisi’s protégé insisting that “there are differences in approaches…and a lot of arguments” in the work with the Georgian central government on development of the region’s wide autonomy project. The future name of the region is likely to be one of the disputed issues. Tbilisi officials would not like the region to be called “South Ossetia” since many Georgians regard the existence of “two Ossetias” and the concept “divided Ossetian people” as a ‘time bomb’.
In his address Dmitry Sanakoev repeated several times that he was speaking on behalf of the Ossetian people. However, the independent sources do not provide information on how many South Ossetians support Dmitry Sanakoev and what part of them supports separatist leader Eduard Kokoity. It is quite clear that the degree of Dmitry Sanakoev’s support by the Ossetian population is of extreme importance to his political future. The official Tbilisi and Dmitry Sanakoev’s administration will have to do a lot to make the EU regard them as true voice of the Ossetians. And this is a sine qua non condition for the EU’s assistance.
Dmitry Sanakoev’s European tour followed the tough statement made by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili at the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) Summit in Baku that “Eduard Kokoity’s regime lives out its days” and the information leak into the Russian press about a deal arranged between Moscow and Tbilisi. According to that deal Russia ceases its support for the Ossetian separatists, the region comes back under the jurisdiction of Georgia, and in return, Georgia allows Russia’s military units to stay in its territory and gives Russia the go-ahead to join the WTO.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the information. Meanwhile, the Georgian authorities are rapidly constructing a new road Nikozi-Avnevi that would let them quickly transfer the manpower and military hardware to Tskhinvali bypassing the Russian peacekeeping forces check posts. The information and psychological war is being waged against the separatist regime, and, what counts most is that the modern infrastructure is being built in the areas controlled by Dmitry Sanakoev’s administration in order to attract private Ossetians. The Georgian Parliament has returned to the scrutiny of the frozen issue on the Russian peacekeepers’ withdrawal from the conflict zone.
In response, Eduard Kokoity hurried to Moscow for consultations, once again showing the international community from whose hand he is eating. But this is unlikely to suit Moscow now that its relations with the West are strained and international community condemns Russia for supporting the separatists. The latest developments in the region suggest that some interesting events can be expected to occur in the near future.
July 3, 2007
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