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TBILISI WILL RESORT TO A TRICK IN ITS RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi
Last week Russia and Georgia’s presidents Vladimir Putin and Mikheil Saakashvili almost simultaneously confirmed their aspiration to improve the volatile Russian-Georgian relations. However, such statements are taken by people both in Georgia and Russia more pessimistically than it was a year and a half ago.
The reason behind the pessimism is that the initial attitudes of each party for a productive dialogue are too different. In Russia Georgia’s aspiration for NATO membership and the status of the main strategic ally of the USA in the post- Soviet space against a background of worsened Russian-American relations gives trump cards to the proponents of a strict policy towards Georgia. The similar situation can be observed in Georgia: the West-oriented and very influential politicians of new generation insist that Georgia shouldn’t show weakness in any key issue of the Russian-Georgian relations.
But it seems that at the moment more pragmatic politicians have gained the upper hand both in Moscow and Tbilisi. A number of factors have favored their line: the Western countries’ harsher criticism towards Russia and its policy towards some new independent states, particularly, to Georgia, and the necessity to stem the negative wave. On the other hand, imposition of sanctions on Georgia and deportation of the Georgians from Moscow led to a more intensive growth of anti-Russian attitudes in Georgia. All these events make easier for Saakashvili and his government to consolidate Russia’s opponents.
But now Saakashvili’s government acutely needs to be granted a respite. The reason is not only the damage caused to the Georgian economy by Russia’s sanctions (according to the official data, the damage exceeds $ 200 million which has worsened the social situation in the country). The political climate becomes heated in Georgia, the opposition forces are getting more active, many representatives of the political and economic elite are at odds with the government’s policy, especially, they can’t agree with the frequent cases of disposal of private property with no trials… under the pretext of restoring law and order. And what is more, there is still no progress in recovery of Georgia’s territorial integrity. In fact, the Western countries support Georgia in this field by words only.
The Georgian authorities seem to believe that the temporary improvement of the Russian-Georgian relations is necessary also to solve the issue of Georgia’s territorial integrity, because Moscow is also trying to resolve it. According to some sources, in the near future the Kremlin will put forward a proposal to settle the Georgian-Abkhazian and the Georgian-Ossetian conflicts.
When accepting the Russian ambassador’s credentials, Mikheil Saakashvili seemed to be sincere when spoke about reasonableness recently appeared in the bilateral relations. Vladimir Putin in his turn was sincere at a press-conference saying that the relations with Georgia wanted settlement and improvement.
In the near future Georgia may try to resort to a trick in the relations with Russia. Some insignificant political concessions will be made by Tbilisi. There is information that the Georgian authorities have decided not to sue Russia for violation of the deported Georgians’ rights in the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. The other sphere where the reconciliation can be seen is the Georgian economy starving for foreign investments. The Russian mobile telecom provider “Vympelkom” will appear on the Georgian cellular communications market soon, and a number of new energy enterprises will likely get controlled by the Russian companies. The opposition parties report that there is a very influential lobby group in Georgia that advances Russia’s economic and related political interests. Besides, Georgia may soften its position on Russia’s joining the WTO, if Moscow puts forward a proposal on the conflict settlement, acceptable to Tbilisi.
The “unstable balance”, which characterizes the current bilateral relations, will most likely mark the ties between the two countries till 2008 (the year when the elections are to be held in Russia and Georgia), unless the Russian proponents of tough line decide to vent their anger on Georgia in order to solve their own problems. Or, unless the same occurs in Georgia, as it was in 2006 before the local election. One should not disregard the external factors, since Georgia is closely tied to the policy pursued by the Western countries in the post-Soviet space.
February 9, 2007
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