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ILHAM ALIYEV’S VISIT TO TBILISI AND RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Political analyst, Tbilisi
Eurasian Home: “On February 7 Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev arrived in Tbilisi for an official visit. What can you say about the current Georgian-Azerbaijani relations? What is the role of the ‘Russian factor’ in the energy cooperation between Tbilisi and Baku?”
I think, the current visit of Ilham Aliyev to Georgia was one of the most important, since he, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed the agreement on the construction of the new strategic railway “Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars”.
If implemented successfully, that ambitious project can drastically change the geopolitical situation in the country and region either for the better or for the worse. One of the positive points would be that Georgia, which incurs serious economic losses due to suspension of the railway communications with Russia through Abkhazia, will virtually become a part of the European railway system with all the ensuing political, social and economic prospects after the new branch line is opened. The negative point would be the potential counteraction of Armenia believing that the project is aimed at its isolation. The Armenian officials said that they would do their utmost to prevent the project from being implemented. The railway is to go across Akhalkalaki inhabited by the Armenians where Yerevan has very considerable influence, the provocations may take place and there is no telling what will come out of it. It comes natural that even Russia, which loses influence in South Caucasia, is not delighted with this project. And it may happen that Moscow’s stance will coincide with the position of the official Yerevan over this matter.
As to the Georgian-Azerbaijani relations, I would say that they are at the same time friendly and pragmatic. Baku gave Tbilisi a helping hand after Russia had increased the natural gas prices, thus putting Georgia in a difficult position. To which level this aid was uninterested could still be discussed.
Tbilisi and Baku managed to overcome the worsening of their relations in 2005 connected with the possibility of spread of the “Orange-Rose Revolution” to Azerbaijan. Today there is a strategic partnership that is mainly based on the international energy transit projects. The Western investments and military-strategic interests in the region are stabilizing the bilateral relations.
At the same time, the two countries implicitly compete for the leadership in the region. Bilateral relations have certain problems, which the parties try not to parade. There are moot points that hinder the Georgian-Azerbaijani frontier from being finally demarked and there are problems with the rights of the Azerbaijanis living in Georgia and the Georgians in Azerbaijan.
Judging by the developments, the “Russian factor” in the energy cooperation between Georgia and Azerbaijan will be decreasing while the alternative energy resources will be employed at full capacity. Saakashvili reported that a cheaper and more reliable share in the Georgian gas balance would be increased. The near future will tell whether this scenario comes true.
Eurasian Home: “Both Azerbaijan and Georgia are the GUAM members. In what aspects do their visions of the Bloc’s further development coincide and where do they differ?”
Observing the GUAM’s performance I can only say that the Bloc failed to play the main role it accepted – to become a counterbalance to the Commonwealth of Independent States and Russia. One reason behind this failure is that GUAM members’ approaches are too incompatible for numerous subjective and objective reasons. For example, the GUAM member states, including Azerbaijan, did not express unambiguous support for Georgia when its relations with Russia worsened and Moscow imposed the economic embargo on its southern neighbor.
It is the relations with Russia that make difference between Baku and Tbilisi’s visions of the bloc’s further development. Unlike Georgia, Azerbaijan has a more reasonable and careful approach. I believe that now Azerbaijan and Georgia are the most active GUAM members that try to make this organization, at least, a bit more significant.
Eurasian Home: “On February 6 Russia-Georgia bilateral consultations on resumption of air service between the two countries were finished. What is your forecast about the possible improvement of the Georgian-Russian relations in the near future?”
Apparently, nobody expected that the consultations would precipitate resumption of air service. Given that the suspension of air service hits the Georgia’s economy stronger than Russia’s, it is possible to suppose that the air service resumption will be subject to horse-trading: Russia might force Georgia to make some concessions. So, no wonder that the negotiations resulted in the creation of a working group that may gather for as a long time as they want. Taking into account that the foreign air companies are getting more and more intense on the Georgian air market supplanting the local companies, the latter can regard the resumption of the air service with Russia as an “oxygen bag”.
As I noted in my previous articles, I feel pessimistic about the improvement of the Russian-Georgian relations in the near future. My pessimism was confirmed by Ambassador of Russia in Georgia Vyacheslav Kovalenko when at the first press conference after he had returned to Tbilisi he made public Moscow’s desire to see Georgia as a “neutral state”. Meanwhile, the official Tbilisi is dropping transparent hints that it is possible to deploy American military bases in Georgia and virtually behaves as a full-fledged member of NATO.
I am alerted by the first statements made by Ambassador Kovalenko since they show that Moscow is still not inclined to understand and accept Georgia’s position. The Ambassador was vaguely speaking about some “unique chance” for Georgia to improve its relations with Russia; he noted that Moscow expected Tbilisi to take reciprocal steps and spoke about some unidentified “rules of a fair game”, that Russia, allegedly, respects and Georgia does not. The open military and political support rendered by Russia to separatist regimes in Georgia, continuous efforts to integrate the breakaway regions into Russia in order to speak to Georgia and the international community using the “available facts” language contradict the rules of a fair game and don’t stimulate Georgia to seek the neutral state status.
My forecast is that in the foreseeable future we can witness some insignificant positive moves in bilateral relations, but there is no hoping for serious improvement of the Russian-Georgian relations under Putin and Saakashvili. It is necessary to do one’s best to avoid the new cycle of worsening of the relations.
February 14, 2007
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