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HOW GEORGIAN – RUSSIAN KNOT WILL BE UNTIED?

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ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Civil Society Program Coordinator, the Eurasia Foundation, Georgia Office

Russia is toughening economic sanctions imposed on Georgia following the October 2 spy scandal, which might have been avoided had Georgian authorities treated the arrested Russian officers according to the internationally acknowledged Modus Operandi. But now that the Georgian-Russian confrontation is gaining momentum and is approaching the dangerous point, the sides appear to think over in what mode they will continue coexistence.

Despite various kinds of existing and foreseen difficulties connected with the deportation of ethnic Georgians from Russia and economic sanctions imposed by Russia, the Georgian government, which these sanctions are intended to weaken and overthrow, is likely to survive. The Georgian population, though grudgingly, but most likely will pay the higher prices for gas, electricity and other products without resorting to anti-governmental protests.

True, Georgia and Georgians pay a high price for maintaining independence and sovereignty whatever fragile they might seem nowadays.

However, most of the local establishments, despite their variegated political spectrum, view this as a political investment in the state’s future.

Meanwhile, the unprecedented outburst of anti-Georgian hysteria and the countrywide ultranationalist psychosis reviving in mind Germany of 1930s, seeking revenge for the national humiliation and blaming external foes and internal aliens for the nation’s troubles, will cost Russia much higher than any political or moral price.

It appears that the Kremlin is not going to change the existing and long outdated rules of its political game with Georgia. During the recent negotiations of Georgian foreign minister Gela Bezhuashvili with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, Moscow again put on the table the set of a priori unacceptable for Tbilisi demands actually pressing Georgia to make a U-turn in its currently pro-Western foreign policy.

The one-time Russia-West diplomatic deal about exchange of support to the UN resolutions about Georgia’s Abkhazia and sanctions on North Korea has by all appearances bred certain hopes in the Kremlin. It seems that Moscow nurtures the ambition to eventually trade off Georgia for such critically important for the Western community issues as the North Korea and Iran nuclear programs, support in the global anti-terror war and international energy policy.

Tbilisi seems to be well aware of the probability of this scenario and most likely is preparing to make a counter move. This move might be making an attractive offer to the Western community, which it hardly can decline, in exchange for a hard-line position on Russia’s policy towards Georgia.

November 7, 2006




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