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IS GEORGIA - ARMENIA FRICTION A SOURCE OF A NEW CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS?
ZAAL ANJAPARIDZE,
Independent analyst, Tbilisi
Quite chilly relations between Georgia and Armenia did not become warmer even after Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s recent visit to Yerevan where he had vainly attempted to solve the long-standing problems (even partially) in the bilateral relations.
It appears that those attempts failed and the statement by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan on September 1st is a vivid example of that. Official Yerevan would like the Georgian authorities to grant the Armenian language in Georgia the status of the regional language in the mostly Armenian-populated Georgian Samtskhe-Javakheti district that borders upon Armenia. Apart from that, Yerevan wishes to have the Armenian Orthodox Church eparchy in Georgia officially registered and the Armenian monuments in Georgia (which according to the Armenian sources amounts at 653?!)to be properly protected.
Serzh Sargsyan’s statement, which I think he deliberately made at the annual meeting with the diplomatic corps, contained a tinge of threat, so that the Tbilisi officials did not doubt seriousness of Yerevan’s intentions. President Sargsyan emphasized that “here we will be delicate but at the same time firm and consistent”.
One can say that Serzh Sargsyan’s words were separated from the general context of his statement where he said that there was a need to develop Armenia-Georgia friendship. The lasting efforts made by Tbilisi to conceal the burning issues and say that if there are controversies in the bilateral relations, they can be settled easily led to the current situation when the accumulated problems cannot be hashed up any longer.
The frontier problems were added to the language one. The state frontier between the two countries has not been delimited officially, which creates extra difficulties in the strained bilateral relations. The clamor, which was raised in the Armenian mass media that the Georgian frontier guards had been said to prevent the inhabitants of the frontier village of Bavra (near Shirak valley) from working the land, suspiciously concurred with Serzh Sargsyan’s statement. More than that, the Armenian side accuses the Georgian border guards of moving the frontier in that place deep into Armenia. The mysterious murder of three Georgian frontier guards serving on the Armenia-Georgia frontier, which the Georgian authorities had declared to be a usual crime before the investigation was finished, made the situation still tenser.
The building of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad has long annoyed official Yerevan and the latter is doing its utmost (and not unsuccessfully) to undermine this project.
It is significant that the official Yerevan’s demarche occurs when Georgia has been living with the shock produced by the August 2008 war and another armed clash between Georgia and Russia is still quite possible. That’s why there are good reasons for the version that Moscow is behind Yerevan’s demarche, if to take into consideration that Russia still hopes to deprive Georgia of its sovereignty. If to get to the bottom of the Armenian President’s initiative, the granting a regional language status to the Armenian language in Georgia is really a prelude to Armenia’s requirement to give political autonomy to the region. The Armenian President’s statement will stir up the secessionist forces in the Armenian-populated Samtskhe-Javakheti with high probability and might trigger various provocations fraught with unpredictable consequences. So far, the immediate result of Serzh Sargsyan’s statement is the appearance of strongly-worded articles in the Armenian and Georgian media, which certainly shape respective public opinions in both countries. In Tbilisi there have been some calls to give a tough respond to Yerevan. At the moment of writing the article the Georgian authorities were keeping a diplomatic silence. Even if Tbilisi yields to Yerevan's demands, the same demands can be placed by other states towards other areas, which are densely populated by ethnic minorities (for example, the Azerbaijanis) and they are almost as big as Armenian community in Samtskhe-Javakheti. The problem is that neither the current nor the previous Georgian authorities have taken care of integration of the national minorities into the Georgian society, although they have spent much money to achieve that purpose, including the funds of the international donors. However, in all fairness, even the vigorous efforts made by the current government to integrate the ethnic authorities did not fall on fertile soil.
The Armenian President’s statements shouldn’t be underestimated, and Tbilisi will make a big mistake if, as before, it will try to hush up the problem. Traditionally the conflicts start with painfully familiar and common arguments. At first the leaders of the countries make harsh demarches expressing their indignation at suppression of their compatriots’ rights in the neighboring country, then the war of words breaks out in the mass media, border incidents take place which are followed by disorders in the secessionist regions. If Tbilisi ignores the demands of Yerevan and a conflict flares up in Georgia’s Armenian-populated Samtskhe-Javakheti, the Armenian authorities can say with a clear conscience that they tried to solve the problem peacefully, but Tbilisi showed an unconstructive approach. It remains to be seen what steps Tbilisi will take.
September 9, 2009
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