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THE KHARKIV AGREEMENTS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
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29 April 2010
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"The main question for the next few years is whether the Kharkiv agreements will become a tool of stabilization, development and rapprochement of Ukraine and Russia", Irina Kobrinskaya.
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THE EXCHANGE
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27 April 2010
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Geopolitical influence is an expensive thing. The Soviet Union realized that well supporting the Communist regimes and movements all over the world including Cuba and North Korea. The current Russian authorities also understood that when they agreed that Ukraine would not pay Russia $40 billion for the gas in return for extension of the lease allowing Russia's Black Sea Fleet to be stationed in the Crimea.
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ISLOM KARIMOV PAID A VISIT TO MOSCOW. WHAT NEXT?
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22 April 2010
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Tashkent said again that Uzbekistan-Russia relations are strategic, and that Russia plays a key role in ensuring global and especially regional security and stability in Central Asia.
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KYRGYZ SYNDROME
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20 April 2010
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The case of Kurmanbek Bakiyev is consistent with the logic of the Belarusian authorities’ actions towards the plane crash near Smolensk. The decisions not to demonstrate the “Katyn” film and not to announce the mourning were made emotionally, to spite Moscow and Warsaw, without thinking about their consequences and about reaction of the society and the neighbouring countries.
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EXPLOSIONS IN RUSSIA
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16 April 2010
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Explosions take place in Russia again. The last week of March started with terrorist acts at the Moscow metro stations which were followed by blasts in the Dagestani city of Kizlar. The horror spread from the metro to the whole city.
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DEVELOPING PROFESSIONAL NON-COMMISSIONED OFFICERS: THE FINAL “KONTRAKTNIKI” EXPERIMENT?
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13 April 2010
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Recent statements by Russian Defense Minister, Anatoliy Serdyukov, indicate that the experiment with contract personnel in the armed forces has finally failed. Serdyukov outlined some of the reasons for these failings, ranging from low pay to how they were recruited and noted the problem of retention.
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“THE REVOLUTION IN KYRGYZSTAN WAS BOTH UNEXPECTED AND PREDICTABLE”
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09 April 2010
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The bloody and chaotic overthrow of the Bakiev regime is not good news for anybody. For Western liberals, it merely highlights the sorry conditions in Kyrgyzstan, the one country in Central Asia that had tried to follow Western advice about the benefits of democratization, market reform and free trade.
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ANOTHER TULIP REVOLUTION IN KYRGYZSTAN?
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07 April 2010
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The developments in Kyrgyzstan are claiming much of our attention. We're still receiving controversial reports and updates from Kyrgyzstan. Many of us are grappling with similar questions: What's happening in Kyrgyzstan? Are we talking about another Tulip revolution? How are the current protests similar or different from the Tulip revolution? So what are broader patterns here?
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ALIAKSANDR LUKASHENKA’S ANTI-RUSSIA DEFENSE
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06 April 2010
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The meeting of Belarus-Russia Union Counsel of Ministers, which was held in the Belarusian city of Brest on March 16, surprised nobody and was a routine event. Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka was absent, so at the press-conference after the meeting it was Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin who looked like the host, while his Belarusian counterpart Siarhiej Sidorski resembled a guest.
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ADDRESSING SOME VIEWS ABOUT BANDERA, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA
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01 April 2010
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What follows is a long and updated version of a submitted letter, which was edited and run by The Moscow Times (TMT) on March 18. This is stated with the realization of how news organizations are known for shortening letters for space consideration. With this understanding, I have no objection to how TMT edited my letter. At the same time, there is more to be substantively said about the involved topics.
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POOR RELATIONS – THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT GOES TO MOSCOW
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29 March 2010
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych symbolically selected Brussels as his first foreign visit upon taking the oath of office in what can only be seen as an exercise in public relations. The new government of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov headed straight for Moscow shortly thereafter with the sole intention of cutting a deal.
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THE WRATH DAY LIKE A GROUNDHOG DAY
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25 March 2010
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The protest actions, which the Russian extraparliamentary opposition had scheduled for March 20, were held as planned, they surprised or frightened nobody. Just as it had been expected, the activists of many organizations supporting the Wrath Day took to the streets… but saw there only the policemen, journalists and each other.
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RUSSIA’S FAILURE IN THE OLYMPIC GAMES
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12 March 2010
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The failure of the Russian team in the Vancouver Olympic Games would not have become a serious problem, if the Russian authorities had not spoken about the sports in its propaganda for many years. The successes of the Russian football and hockey players were presented as a proof that Russia reacquires the great power status in sports, if not in world politics and economy.
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THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN OFFICER CORPS
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09 March 2010
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As a consequence of Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov’s military reform, the Russian officer corps is arguably enduring the most fundamental changes and challenges that it has faced in the past two centuries.
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WHO’S AFRAID OF THE BIG BAD BEAR?
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09 March 2010
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Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s new president, may very well prove to all his critics and naysayers that he’s no Russian wannabe, but the burly Donbass boss is still a bear – no less power hungry and ferocious than the ones in Moscow.
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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN TAJIKISTAN
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05 March 2010
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It was clear even before the elections that the Tajikistani authorities could not achieve their main object from those elections – to improve Tajikistan’s image on the international scene.
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DOUBLETHINK
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04 March 2010
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I’ve recently realized that the Soviet hypocrisy and doublethink are better for me than the modern cynicism. Why was it banned during the Leonid Brezhnev era to write about the crimes committed under former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin? Because the Communist party functionaries understood at heart such things should be ashamed of and, in a sense, they admitted the guilt of the Communist regime.
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WHAT WE SHOULD EXPECT FROM YANUKOVYCH
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26 February 2010
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Viktor Yanukovych, the bad guy in Ukraine’s pro-democracy movement of 2004, has been inaugurated president, but no one is quite sure what kind of changes he will make in the strategically important but chronically unstable country. Yankovych himself may not have a firm idea of his policy objectives – judging by the vague phrasing he chooses in public appearances.
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LOSER IN UKRAINIAN ELECTIONS COULD BE THE LAW
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19 February 2010
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Another colorful Ukrainian election has been held, to the indifference of many voters and the relief of many foreign investors and governments. And while Victor Yanukovych is still trying to uphold his victory against the legal objections being raised by challenger Yulia Tymoshenko, the law itself could be defrauded.
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TAJIKISTAN - UZBEKISTAN RELATIONS
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17 February 2010
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The problems in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan relations could be solved if the sides were ready to make a compromise with each other. If Emomalii Rahmon and Islom Karimov made any concessions to each other, it would ease tension between the neighbouring countries.
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STARTING POINT
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12 February 2010
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“As a child I knew that I would become president of the state”, said Yuliya Tymoshenko in an interview more than four years ago. Over the past 13 years (since Yuliya Tymoshenko came to politics), she has been steady in her purpose.
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ILLUSION OF MODERNIZATION
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11 February 2010
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Many years ago German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck said about the Russians: “They harness their horses slowly but they drive them fast.” Strange as it may seem, Russians like this aphorism very much. As a matter of fact, the fast driving justifies any protracted, unsuccessful and stupid efforts to “harness” the progress chariot. On the other hand, it is exactly those perpetual delays that make our “fast driving” necessary.
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WILL THE SELF-STYLED SAVIORS BE REALLY ABLE TO RESCUE THE NATION?
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09 February 2010
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Both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych are backed by almighty oligarchic clans, whose interests they are supposed to meet. So will the new president be willing and able to break out the preset paradigm and finally initiate the long-awaited reforms, which would inevitably come into conflict with the oligarchic interests?
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN UKRAINE
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08 February 2010
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The narrow gap shows that it will be difficult for Viktor Yanukovych to seize power and that the two presidential candidates should negotiate with each other.
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CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN KYRGYZSTAN
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08 February 2010
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In December 2009, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, President of Kyrgyzstan, launched the constitutional reform. The official reason is the constitutional amendments are needed to define the powers of the President, the Parliament and the Cabinet, considering the administrative reform in Kyrgyzstan.
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YUSHCHENKO - THE DAY AFTER
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29 January 2010
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It is an established fact that Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has lost his chance to be re-elected. His public support going into the first round on January 17 was dismally low, in what many saw as an indictment of the country’s 2004 Orange Revolution – a pro-Western popular uprising that lifted Yushchenko to power. However, the end of the Yushchenko era may not be as definitive as it seems.
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“FREEDOM” – WHAT A PLEASANT WORD!
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28 January 2010
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Last week the Heritage Foundation published the 2010 Index of Economic Freedom. According to that rating, Hong Kong is the world’s freest economy, it is much freer than the USA. Armenia is freer than Brazil, Estonia is much freer than Germany, and Kazakhstan is freer than India. Russian economy is not free, Tajikistan outstrips it.
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A PREPARATORY YEAR
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26 January 2010
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While Russian and Belarusian officials were carrying on negotiations on the Russian oil prices, on which 50% of Belarus’ annual GDP depends, Minsk hosted the big hockey holiday. The local team of veterans with its unchallenged captain, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, played in a tournament to win the Belarusian President’s prize. Simultaneously, during the ceremony of granting awards to cultural workers, Aliaksandr Lukashenka delivered a long speech.
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THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE
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19 January 2010
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In the January 17 elections Yuliya Tymoshenko made three system mistakes. Firstly, as I have already said, the exit poll with the results in the interests of Yuliya Tymoshenko was made. She cannot use this technology in the second round, as no one would believe “her” sociologists.
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THE ANNIVERSARY OF STANISLAV MARKELOV AND ANASTASIA BABUROVA’S MURDERS
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19 January 2010
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Lawyer Stanislav Markelov and journalist Anastasia Baburova were killed a year ago in Moscow. They were killed in broad daylight, in the center of Moscow, thus defiance was bid to the society and, in a sense, to the Russian authorities. The Kremlin officials disliked Stanislav Markelov, but they do not like disorders and scandals even more. So, this time, the authorities tried to solve the crime. Two suspects have been arrested.
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KAZAKHSTAN’S OSCE PRESIDENCY STARTED WITH INTERNATIONAL SCANDALS
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18 January 2010
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For Kazakhstan the year 2010 started not only with festivities in honour of its OSCE presidency, but also with the necessity to solve serious diplomatic issues.
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UKRAINE’S 2010 ELECTIONS: THE ANTI-REVOLUTION
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15 January 2010
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Ukraine first surfaced on the modern world map in the autumn of 2004, during the country’s euphoric Orange Revolution. The streets of Kyiv became a stage of democratic heroism for international television crews. Fear of a real revolution gradually subsided, as the old guard of journalist-killing, all-powerful fat cats seemed to sink into the soiled woodwork of the nation’s dark recent past.
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UKRAINIANS ARE ELECTING A NEW PRESIDENT
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15 January 2010
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Viktor Yanukovych and Yuliya Tymoshenko are the leaders of the presidential election campaign. There continues to be a 10-15% gap between their approval ratings. Serhyi Tigipko ranks third. The gap between his approval rating and that of Yuliya Tymoshenko is 10%.
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OIL CONFLICT BETWEEN MINSK AND MOSCOW MAY MAKE BELARUS’S POLITICAL SYSTEM COLLAPSE
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14 January 2010
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The customs duty on the Russian oil for Minsk is the issue of the Belarusian regime’s survival. That’s why Minsk reacts so sharply to Moscow’s unwillingness to supply over 5 million tons of oil without charging the duty.
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TWO INTRIGUES OF UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
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25 December 2009
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The presidential election campaign in Ukraine has two main intrigues, if anything extraordinary does not happen in the New Year and Christmas holidays. The first one is a very wide gap between approval ratings of the leaders of the presidential race, Viktor Yanukovych and Yuliya Tymoshenko.
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UKRAINE ON THE EVE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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23 December 2009
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For the time being, it is unclear who will rank third. The main fight unfolds between Viktor Yushchenko and Serhyi Tigipko. Viktor Yushchenko can be such an aspirant, as he is Ukraine’s President, while Arseniy Yatsenuk can fail to rank third.
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SAME FACES, NO ISSUES, AS UKRAINIANS PREPARE TO VOTE
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18 December 2009
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Ukraine is about to elect a new president, but the main contenders are anything but new. In first place in the polls is former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the villain of the 2004 race, which was decided only after the country’s Orange Revolution.
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BEIJING’S ENERGY PROJECTS IN CENTRAL ASIA
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16 December 2009
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Laying of a gas pipeline to China, through which the Turkmen gas will be pumped via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is a result of Beijing’s well thought-out strategy to diversify its raw materials sources. In this respect China’s foreign policy resembles that of Russia, since it is built only on pragmatism.
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DEFAULT IN EUROPE
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16 December 2009
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When the Arab emirate Dubai was on the verge of bankruptcy, the international financial speculators became worried. The rating agencies simultaneously came to correct their assessments. The bankers started to check if their debtors were solvent. Another financial crisis is in the air. It turned out that not only Ireland and Latvia, but also Greece and Spain face a default. Iceland has already become bankrupt.
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IS THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA SPLIT UP?
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16 December 2009
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The fact that four Moldovan MPs have discontinued their membership of the Communist Party faction indicates serious problems within the Party. Those problems are not new.
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«AFTER THE DECEMBER 7 ELECTIONS THE SITUATION IN MOLDOVA BECAME STILL WORSE»
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10 December 2009
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Before the December 7 presidential elections the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova announced that its faction would not vote for Marian Lupu, a candidate nominated by the “Alliance for European Integration”. The Communists want early parliamentary elections to be held. Although their faction is the largest in the Parliament, they have no parliamentary majority.
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THE CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS IN MOLDOVA
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09 December 2009
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On December 7, the Moldovan Parliament failed to elect President. The Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova refused to vote for Marian Lupu as a presidential candidate.
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YUSHCHENKO GETS SPANKED AT EU-UKRAINE SUMMIT
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07 December 2009
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has always had a special relationship with the European Union, which over the years of his administration has developed into something like his country’s parental advisor. During the Thirteenth EU-Ukraine summit recently held in Kyiv, this parent-child relationship shone through like never before, with EU officials rebuking the embattled Ukrainian leader for failing to implement promises of reform.
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“THE CUSTOMS UNION MAY BE THE LAST EFFORT OF RUSSIA TO KEEP THE CIS COUNTRIES TOGETHER”
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02 December 2009
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The documents establishing the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia were signed on November 27, 2009 in Minsk by Aliaksandr Lukashenka, Nursultan Nazarbayev and Dmitry Medvedev.
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WE LIVE LIKE DURING A WAR
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02 December 2009
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If a train was blown up in Western Europe (as was the case with the “Nevsky Express” train when it travelled between the capital Moscow and St Petersburg last week), the railway companies would suffer in a much larger measure – many people would return the tickets they bought. In Russia the situation is totally different, and nobody is going to induce the passengers to buy tickets offering them the New Year discounts.
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“AZERBAIJAN IS CONCERNED ABOUT TURKEY-ARMENIA RAPPROCHEMENT”
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26 November 2009
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In connection with the meeting between Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, which was held on November 22 in Munich, the rumours that Yerevan can agree on liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh areas are discussed in Azerbaijan.
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THE MUNICH MEETING BETWEEN ILHAM ALIYEV AND SERZH SARGSYAN
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25 November 2009
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The Sunday negotiations in Munich, like the majority of previous meetings between Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, have not changed the prospects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.
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UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIA-EU RELATIONS
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20 November 2009
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Ukraine's issue in the context of Russia-EU relations is not of current importance. As regards the foreign-policy issues, the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence is of the greatest significance to Moscow now.
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PRESIDENT’S ADDRESS ABOUT TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND DAY-LIGHT SAVINGS TIME
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19 November 2009
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On Thursday Evening, when looking for the 2009 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, I found his previous Address which he made in 2008. After having read the two texts I was perplexed. In some parts of his message the President repeats what he said in 2008. Why does he do so?
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EU - RUSSIA RELATIONS AND GEORGIA
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18 November 2009
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The EU-Russia relations are of importance to Tbilisi, above all, in terms of non-recognition of the status-quo after the war between Georgia and Russia.
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THE MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS REFUSED TO VOTE FOR MARIAN LUPU AS PRESIDENT
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12 November 2009
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The Moldovan Parliament failed to elect the President of Moldova on November 10, 2009. It means that the repeated election will be held within the next 30 days. The Communist Party stands its ground, it is not ready to support Marian Lupu, who was nominated by the ruling “Alliance for European Integration”.
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THE PAY GAME – UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND EUROPE
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12 November 2009
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Ukraine is paying more money for less gas from Russia than it ever has, but you wouldn’t have thought so judging by the hostile rhetoric that continues to come from Moscow. "If they don't pay for gas supplies for internal consumption in Ukraine, they won't receive it," Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently told reporters in Moscow on November 11.
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FEAST DURING THE PLAGUE
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09 November 2009
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Ukraine appears to be in the grips of an epidemic, but that hasn’t put a damper on the country’s political buffoonery. Five years ago, during the last presidential election campaign, Ukrainians turned a political revolution into a carnival, and now they are doing the same with a flu outbreak.
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MOLDOVA: PROSPECTS OF PRESIDENT’S ELECTION
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06 November 2009
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Many Communists realize that they will not be in the saddle even if early elections are held. The Communists’ approval rating falls and they have lost their administrative resource.
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PHILOSOPHY PROTECTION COMMITTEE
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06 November 2009
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The modern architecture is inhumane, it does not fit into the historical and cultural context and destroys any ensemble. In other words, it is important not only what has been destroyed, but also what has been built. Constructing a modern architecture building in a historical district is destroying this district. More than that, this kind of destruction is deliberate and mercenary, as the destroyers know what they do.
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TRICK OR TREAT: UKRAINE’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BEGIN
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30 October 2009
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The Ukrainian presidential election campaign began on October 19 – just in time for Halloween. And in keeping with the haunting holiday spirit, all the contenders for the nation’s top job are looking spookier than ever. The candidates are not out to frighten voters, though. Instead, they want to scare each other with dirty tricks and outrageous PR, which will surely keep apace until the New Year, when voting is scheduled.
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PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN ABKHAZIA: HOW TBILISI SEES IT
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29 October 2009
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The preparation for the presidential elections in Abkhazia and the nomination of Sergei Bagapsh for the presidency are important political events, but in Georgia they are of interest only to political analysts in terms of understanding the Abkhaz society’s attitudes.
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KURMANBEK BAKIYEV’S ADMINISTRATIVE REFORMS
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27 October 2009
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All the main political and economic resources will be concentrated in Kurmanbek Bakiyev's hands. Strengthening of the presidential power in the republic can be regarded as a result of Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s winning the July 2009 presidential election by a landslide.
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20 LOST YEARS
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26 October 2009
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The East European countries began celebrating jubilees, the historians and political scientists in the Western countries hold conferences and discussions: twenty years have passed since the “autumn revolutions”, which started the democratic epoch in the former Communist countries. It is the worst time to observe the anniversary. The new regimes in Eastern Europe are suffering acute social, economic and political crises.
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IS OBAMA AMERICA’S GORBACHEV?
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22 October 2009
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U.S. President Barack Obama has been in office for less than a year, but he already looks destined to preside over the decline of his country’s extensive global influence. In this sense, he is not unlike Mikhail Gorbachev, who closed the curtains on the Soviet Union to the applause of nearly everyone, save his own people.
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THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN OFFICIALLY STARTED IN UKRAINE
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21 October 2009
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According to public opinion polls, conducted in Ukraine, there are three favorites in the presidential race. Viktor Yanukovych, leader of the Party of Regions, ranks first (30%). Yuliya Tymoshenko, Prime Minister, ranks second (20%). Arseny Yatsenyuk, former Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, ranks third (9%).
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TYMOSHENKO MAY WIN YANUKOVYCH IN THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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16 October 2009
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Leader of the opposition Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko continue to be the major presidential candidates. In the first round Viktor Yanukovych can rank first. But in the second round he will lose the election to Yuliya Tymoshenko.
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ARMENIAN - TURKISH RELATIONS
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14 October 2009
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There are many reasons why Russia is interested in improvement of the Armenian-Turkish relations. One of them is the five-day war in South Ossetia in August 2008, which led to isolation of Armenia, Russia’s strategic partner, in the region. The economic reasons are also of great importance.
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IS MISSION IMPOSSIBLE?
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14 October 2009
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Against the background of social disappointments and political failures that have been taking place in Ukraine during Viktor Yushchenko’s presidency, the freedom of speech is considered to be one of the main achievements of the Orange Revolution. President Yushchenko likes to mention that in his speeches telling Ukrainians about the diffusion of democratic values in the country under his rule.
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MOLDOVAN “ALLIANCE FOR EUROPEAN INTEGRATION” HOLDS THE CIS SUMMIT IN CHISINAU
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09 October 2009
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The CIS summit was held in Chisinau on October 9, 2009. However, the leaders of the Moldovan ruling “Alliance for European Integration” have not taken a clear stand on the CIS.
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RUSSIAN-BELARUSIAN RELATIONS AND THE CHISINAU CIS SUMMIT
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08 October 2009
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President of Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s uncomplimentary words about the Russian-Belarusian relations and about Russian Premier Vladimir Putin personally have little to do with transformation of the CIS whose leaders will hold the summit in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau on October 9.
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HAPPY LIFE PICTURE
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08 October 2009
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At first, I did not understand why that article should be read and discussed, since many various articles are published every week. So, I refused to take part in the round tables discussing the article “Russia, go ahead!” by Dmitry Medvedev. Having looked through it, I found neither original ideas, nor refined language, nor some other advantages that would make the article better than all the Internet publications.
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THE NEW MOLDOVAN AUTHORITIES REALIZE HOW IMPORTANT THE RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW ARE
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02 October 2009
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The relations with Russia are of great importance to Moldova. The new government’s program has the foreign-policy priorities including the strategic partnership with Russia.
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EXPECTATION AND DISAPPOINTMENT IN UKRAINE
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30 September 2009
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Almost as soon as Ukraine gained its independence nearly a generation ago, investors and analysts began speaking of the country’s great potential – as the breadbasket of Europe, as a consumer population of 50 million, as a beacon of democracy on the border with Russia, etc. These hopes have still not died, but they are slowly being smothered by a seemingly never ending cycle of disappointments.
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THE U.S. IS SHORT OF MONEY TO PLACE ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM IN EASTERN EUROPE
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24 September 2009
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Barack Obama sees the situation in proper perspective. Unlike his predecessor George Bush, Barack Obama understands that the U.S. cannot solve all the global and regional problems independently.
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EVERYONE HAS HIS OWN PROBLEMS
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24 September 2009
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The subject of the global financial crisis is getting less and less interesting. Many articles about the crisis have been published and a lot of conclusions have already been drawn. It’s another matter that the conclusions differ from the decisions that are being made. Meanwhile, Russian officials as well as ordinary people would like to hear good news. It would be so nice to arrange a little holiday against the background of the crisis.
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IT’S A BIRD, IT’S A PLANE, IT’S UNDERDOG YATSENYUK
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22 September 2009
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Arseny Yatsenyuk has been on Ukraine’s political stage for some time, as the nation’s top banker, top parliamentarian and more than one kind of Cabinet minister. Now, he is running for president, as an alternative to the dynamic trio of President Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and three-time loser Viktor Yanukovych.
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POLICE MAJOR YEVSYUKOV AND OTHERS
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14 September 2009
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The case against police major Denis Yevsyukov is ready to be taken to court. Former head of the Moscow Police Department “Tsaritsyno”, who shot down people in “Ostrov” supermarket in April 2009, is charged with murder of two people and attempted murder of 21 people. The final version of the indictment stresses the fact that Denis Yevsyukov attempted to kill policemen seeking to arrest him.
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KURMANBEK BAKIYEV PROMISES TO REFORM KYRGYZSTAN
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09 September 2009
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President Bakiyev’s decision is reasonable. This is not a redistribution of powers between the Parliament and the President or between the President and the Cabinet in favor of Kurmanbek Bakiyev.
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A FOREIGN VIEW OF RUSSIAN MILITARY REFORM
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07 September 2009
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In the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia war in August 2008, as the political and military structures examined the lessons learned from the campaign, the most ambitious, radical military reform agenda since the Great Patriotic War was announced.
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VLADIMIR VORONIN RESIGNED AS PRESIDENT OF MOLDOVA
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04 September 2009
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I believe that there may be several reasons why Vladimir Voronin, leader of the Moldovan Communists, resigned as President of Moldova.
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WANTED: UKRAINIAN DARK HORSE CANDIDATE
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01 September 2009
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Ukrainian politics have been a three-horse race ever since the country’s ethereal Orange Revolution. Some have described this race as democracy – wild and exciting, if not fair or progressive. But with internal divisions, relations with Russia and economic despair worse than ever, most Ukrainians would just like to harness one of these snorting beasts to some vehicle of palpable development, to make him do something useful.
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“VLADIMIR VORONIN WILL FIGHT TO THE BITTER END”
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31 August 2009
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The Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova took advantage of the Parliamentary procedure rules (a faction can be formed within 10 days) and said that its faction had yet to be formed. The other parties have formed their factions and elected the Speaker by a majority vote. Mihai Ghimpu, leader of the Liberal Party, became the Speaker.
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PERSONNEL SHORTAGE
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27 August 2009
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While the world leaders are slightly optimistic about the economic recovery in the Western countries, Eastern Europe prepares for the next wave of the crisis. The states are short of money to indemnify for their budgets and to support businessmen, a lot of companies stand on the verge of bankruptcy, the population’s employment and incomes continue to fall, and the demand slackens.
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“MOLDOVAN LIBERALS CAN ALLOW VLADIMIR VORONIN TO REMAIN IN POWER TO DISCREDIT THE COMMUNISTS BEFORE THE 2010 ELECTIONS”
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25 August 2009
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The Communists will confront “Alliance for European Integration” in a tough way. They will create a left-of-centre alliance, but with extra-parliamentary small parties, like Social and Political Movement “Equal Rights” headed by Valery Klimenko, the Party of Socialists headed by Veronika Abramchuk, the Centrist Union led by Vasile Tarlev and others.
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REMEMBERING MAKHNO
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25 August 2009
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As what promises to be another tumultuous and no doubt vicious Ukrainian presidential election approaches, we are once again reminded of what’s at stake. To some, it’s about the choice between East and West. To others, the elections are part of the growing pains of a fledgling state. As for me, I am reminded of Nestor Makhno, Ukraine’s famous anarchist.
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THE FUTURE OF THE CIS IS IN UKRAINE’S HANDS
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20 August 2009
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If Viktor Yushchenko wins the 2010 presidential elections, Ukraine will try to withdraw from the CIS. If another presidential candidate Yuliya Tymoshenko wins the elections, Kyiv will seek to restore the “multivector” policy.
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THE GHOST OF NATIONALIZATION
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14 August 2009
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For the time being Russia is not haunted by the ghost of Communism, but there is a more modest and pragmatic ghost of Nationalization. Those talks started at the beginning of the summer 2009 when some enterprises forming company towns were closed down, and in August when the main assembly line of the AvtoVAZ automobile plant stopped working, the issue of nationalization of this former Soviet industry giant was raised at the trade union protest rally.
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INITIATORS OF DMITRY MEDVEDEV’S ADDRESS TO THE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT HAVE MADE A STRATEGIC MISTAKE
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13 August 2009
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Dmitry Medvedev’s address to his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko indicates that Russia is acting towards its neighbors like in the early nineties, when the doctrine on Moscow’s exclusive interests in the former Soviet Union prevailed.
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DMITRY MEDVEDEV’S ADDRESS TO THE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT
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12 August 2009
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On August 11, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced his decision to delay the arrival of the new Russian Ambassador in Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev did it in the address to his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko.
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GEORGIA IS WAITING FOR REFORMS
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12 August 2009
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If the reforms are conducted, there is a hope that next elections will be free and honest. This is an achievable task for both the authorities and the opposition, as other political goals are in the distant future. Those include NATO membership, integration with the EU, return of the lost territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
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GEORGIA ON THE EVE OF THE SOUTH OSSETIA WAR ANNIVERSARY
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04 August 2009
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The Russian leaders’ words that it is necessary to replace the Georgian authorities strengthen Mikheil Saakashvili’s positions. However I believe that drastic measures will not be taken. Both the authorities and the opposition are willing to act moderately.
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MOLDOVAN ZUGZWANG AFTER THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
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04 August 2009
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Nowadays Moldova, which is the poorest country in Europe, torn by internal contradictions and problems of self-proclaimed Transnistria and autonomous region of Gagauz, is in a critical situation.
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IS VLADIMIR VORONIN’S ERA COMING TO AN END?
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03 August 2009
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The prospects of the Communist Party as a political force will likely depend on whether it will be able to change its image and organizational structure properly to meet the altering preferences of the voters. That’s why Vladimir Voronin may step down as the Communist Party leader sooner or later.
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MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS LOST MAJORITY IN THE PARLIAMENT
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30 July 2009
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Why doesn’t the Communist Party of Moldova get the majority in the Parliament after the early elections which were held on July 29? The key factor is the events on April 7, when mass protests broke out in Chisinau after the results of the April parliamentary elections had been announced.
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CONTROL OF JUSTICE
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30 July 2009
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Nobody knows how many there are political prisoners in Russia. Most likely, the figure is lower than the opposition commentators say it is, but, of course, higher than the officials think, as the latter are sure that there are no political prisoners in Russia at all. However, it looks like, besides political prisoners, a new kind of prisoner appears in Russia – the social one.
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“BIDEN TIME” IN US-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS
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28 July 2009
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A lot has been written about U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Kyiv. But the man didn’t say anything earth shattering, because there really wasn’t anything earth shattering to say. More importantly, it really wasn’t clear whom he should have been trying to deliver Washington’s message to in Ukraine, as no one has been in charge of the newly independent country for a long time.
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KYRGYZSTAN ON THE THRESHOLD OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
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23 July 2009
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If Kurmanbek Bakiyev is reelected, there may appear some risks. Firstly, corruption and clan system may continue to exist. Secondly, Kyrgyzstan resembles the neighboring countries more and more, it becomes more authoritarian, which aggravates its domestic problems.
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TBILISI IS WAITING FOR “HELPING HAND”
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22 July 2009
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I believe that Barack Obama managed to avert another Russia-Georgia war and now Tbilisi is arguing more confidently that Russia’s war threat has been prevented. The question is for how long.
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CONFESSIONS OF CASSANDRA
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20 July 2009
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A year ago, while we were warning about oil price downturn to 40$ per barrel, the price toped out by reaching 147$ per barrel, and high-paid experts on the ground of immense information content, processing by highly professional employees, were foretelling with confidence the increase of oil prices up to 200$ per barrel.
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UKRAINE’S PUBLIC ENEMIES
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14 July 2009
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Under Ukraine’s last president, Leonid Kuchma, crime and punishment were pretty straight forward affairs. If you were a poor slob caught near the scene of a crime, you would be quickly whisked off to a remand center and possibly tortured along the way. Whether you were guilty or not, you stayed in that remand center with the faint hope of being pardoned or just let out.
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RUSSIA-U.S.A. RELATIONS AND CENTRAL ASIA
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10 July 2009
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I believe that Central Asia wasn’t under discussion of the Russian and U.S. Presidents during the visit of Barack Obama to Moscow on July 6-8. Though, this discussion was highly expected in the countries of Central Asia.
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OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS SOUTH CAUCASUS
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08 July 2009
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It is hard for the U.S.A. and other Western countries not to take into account Russia’s interests in the South Caucasus. In case there were any illusions in this respect, the five days war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 has dispelled them.
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ADULT FAIRYTALES
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03 July 2009
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Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Africa. Speaking to the local audience, he said that Europe was indebted to the black continent, which had been colonized in the XIX century. At the same time Dmitry Medvedev noted that Russia itself wouldn’t pay a debt, because it had never been a colonial power.
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NO AND HOW IN UKRAINE’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE
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29 June 2009
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When I think about who’s going to be the next Ukrainian president, I don’t wonder about the know-how of the campaign strategists or the ability of the eventual winner. The last presidential election wasn’t about campaign know-how, but rather about vicious tactics and dirty tricks, eventually ending in a back-room compromise that has ever since called into question the know-how and ability of the winner: President Viktor Yushchenko.
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RUSSIA HAS SUPPORTED THE BELARUSIAN ECONOMY AND WILL DO THAT
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25 June 2009
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Moscow has no other ways to maintain relations with Minsk but to support Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime. Despite the conflicts, neither side will raise the question of Belarus-Russia Union project termination. I believe the current leaders would not like to go down in history as destroyers of the Belarus-Russia Union.
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HOW BELARUSIANS ASSESS CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA
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23 June 2009
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According to the public opinion polls, 90% of the Belarusians have considered Russia a friendly state. At present this figure can fall to 70%, this is the maximum, to which the national mass media criticism can lead.
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SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION SUMMIT IN YEKATERINBURG
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23 June 2009
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The SCO tries to adequately react to the world processes, which the Yekaterinburg summit has shown. The main subject of the summit was the financial and economic crisis and the ways to minimize its negative consequences for the SCO member states.
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EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY AND FORMATION OF THE CUSTOMS UNION
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19 June 2009
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At the meeting of the Prime Ministers, which was held on June 9, 2009, it was decided that the single customs tariff would come into force on January 1, 2010. By this date, we should draw up all the remaining international documents.
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PECULIARITIES OF THE NATIONAL MENTALITY
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19 June 2009
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Over the past twenty years the liberal social and political essays have written that under capitalism the economy must have nothing to do with the activities of the state that can damage the economic development by interfering in the economy. One can come to the conclusion that the Russian government is not responsible for the crisis at all, in particular since the crisis is global.
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COLD SNAP AFTER SPRING IN THE MIDDLE EAST
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17 June 2009
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As I write, angry demonstrations continue in Tehran and elsewhere in the Islamic Republic of Iran, over what the young demonstrators perceive as the blatant rigging of the presidential election to keep Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power for another five years. Reports suggest at least eight protestors have been killed by police.
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THE GAS TRAP
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16 June 2009
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Ever since Russia first turned off the tap at the turn of 2006, during the so-called ‘first gas war’, Ukraine has felt its position as the gas line to Europe under pressure. Before that, the fledgling democracy had bought its gas at a fraction of the market value, with corrupt intermediaries making a windfall on the difference in the prices from exports.
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“VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH CANNOT BE REGARDED AS THE PARTY LEADER AFTER HIS DECISION”
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11 June 2009
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Experts are not surprised that the negotiations on creation of Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions coalition were broken off. Once again the Ukrainians were deeply disappointed in Viktor Yanukovych, leader of the Party of Regions, who initiated the talks cessation.
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YULIYA TYMOSHENKO BLOC AND PARTY OF REGIONS HAVE FAILED TO FORM A COALITION
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09 June 2009
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Why did Viktor Yanukovych choose to break off the negotiations with Yuliya Tymoshenko? The first reason is he has a high approval rating that would allow him to make it into the second round and to win the presidential elections. Now Viktor Yanukovych’s rating is his main capital. With the new political system the rating would cease to be the key resources.
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GEORGIAN OPPOSITION AND GOVERNMENT MAKE A PAUSE
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08 June 2009
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After May 26 (Georgia’s Independence Day), when an impressively large-scale rally organized by the opposition had shown that too many people in Georgia sought to make Mikheil Saakashvili and his team resign, the opposition and the ruling party decided to weaken their confrontation and to step back from the “Red Line”.
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MOLDOVA ON THE THRESHOLD OF THE NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
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04 June 2009
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Fresh parliamentary elections in Moldova would be a negative scenario of confrontation between the opposition and the ruling Communist Party, which we have witnessed since the April parliamentary elections. The scenario would be negative regardless of who – the Communists or the opposition – can gain from it more.
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STABILIZATION IS WORSE THAN DEPRESSION
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04 June 2009
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Russian officials have become optimistic again. Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev criticizes his Minister of Finances Alexey Kudrin in public because he said that Russia’s favorable economic trends had become a thing of the past, and the Central Bank representatives joyfully speak about the growth of gold and currency reserves. Everybody is inclined to believe that the crisis will not get deeper any more and that long-awaited economic recovery is just on the point of starting.
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IS IT POSSIBLE TO IMPROVE THE RUSSIA-US RELATIONS?
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29 May 2009
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US president Barack Obama will travel to Moscow in July this year for his second negotiations round with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The first meeting between the two leaders in London in April went well.
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UKRAINE’S PROCESS OF POLITICAL ELIMINATION
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27 May 2009
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In 2004, as the country readied itself to elect a new president, one who would replace the thoroughly disgraced Leonid Kuchma, there was a feeling that most ordinary and well-placed Ukrainians were gradually falling into line behind the then young and reform-minded hopeful, Viktor Yushchenko.
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“MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS HAVE BETTER CHANCES TO WIN FRESH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS”
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26 May 2009
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On May 28, the repeated presidential elections will be held in Moldova’s Parliament. The ruling Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova has nominated two candidates for the presidential post: acting Prime Minister Zinaida Grecianii, and Moldova’s Ambassador to Russia Andrei Neguta, who had also been Moldova’s representative in different European organizations.
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ZINAIDA GRECIANII WAS SHORT OF ONE VOTE TO BE ELECTED MOLDOVA’S PRESIDENT
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25 May 2009
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On May 20, the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova, which got 60 parliamentary seats following the 5 April elections, failed to elect Zinaida Grecianii as Moldovan President.
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GOOD COP, BAD COP AND UNREMARKABLE ONE
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25 May 2009
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The diarchy in the Russian politics is a permanent problem for analysts, propagandists and moralists. Who is the head of state? The President or the Prime Minister? And what kind of our system is? The superpresidential republic or the moderate constitutional monarchy? In fact, these questions are not the most unpleasant.
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THERE ARE NO PRO-RUSSIAN POLITICIANS IN GEORGIA
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19 May 2009
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What does the current situation in Georgia mean for Russia? On the one hand, the confrontation between the government and the opposition is Georgia’s domestic affair. Whoever wins the struggle, no one would take a pro-Russian position.
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THE YEAR OF LIVING CAREFULLY
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19 May 2009
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There is an eerie feeling in Eastern Europe. The color revolutions have faded like a well worn tie-dyed t-shirt that once looked bright but always lacked a clear design. The revolutionary dream of former Soviet satellite states to join Western Europe was always vague if for no other reason than Western Europe’s own lack of identity and purpose. Now, the dreamers are awakening to a new, uncertain and ominously familiar day.
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CASE ON KILLED WILD RAMS: CONTINUATION
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14 May 2009
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It seems that in this spring not only weather but also the political climate in Russia is getting warm. Although those symptoms are unconvincing, they continue to multiply turning particular cases into a tendency. The crime committed by police major Denis Yevsyukov, who has shot down innocent people in a Moscow supermarket, led to a dismissal of Vladimir Pronin, head of the Moscow police.
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WHAT FUTURE WILL KYRGYZSTAN CHOOSE?
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30 April 2009
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The main issue that Kyrgyzstan will have to solve electing the President on July 23, 2009 is the country's future rather than a new person in President’s office.
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HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS INFLUENCES RUSSIA-UKRAINE RELATIONS
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29 April 2009
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At present, in Russia-Ukraine relations the economic issues are of the greatest importance, at least, to Ukraine. The economic crisis has reduced the demand for goods including natural gas, which offers a problem to Ukraine since there is a contracted volume of the Russian gas that should be paid for.
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“RUSSIA-UKRAINE RELATIONS SHOULDN’T BE POLITICIZED”
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28 April 2009
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Yuliya Tymoshenko’s visit to Moscow on April 29 may raise her rating, especially among the electors from Ukraine’s east and southeast regions who sympathize with Russia and its political leaders, in particular Russian Premier Vladimir Putin.
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THE EXTENSION OF UKRAINIAN HOSPITALITY
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28 April 2009
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Ukrainians are a hospitable nation, and that cannot be denied. To be sure, the people here don’t smile as a matter of civility, and service-industry workers are sometimes blunt to the point of rudeness. But anyone who has been invited to a Ukrainian home can attest to the warmth and attention with which their hosts invariably received them.
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WHAT ARE BUREAUCRATS AFRAID OF?
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23 April 2009
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The economic crisis makes the social movements more efficient, but the same is not true for the Russian local authorities. The functionaries’ fear of losing their jobs or of being reprimanded reaches the point of hysteria during the crisis.
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“EARLY PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE ARE THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO”
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21 April 2009
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Only a month ago influential businessmen were choosing between Viktor Yanukovych and Yuliya Tymoshenko to back him or her up at the presidential election. Now they offer their financial, social and media resources to Arseniy Yatsenuk who may make it into the second round of the presidential election leaving Yuliya Tymoshenko behind.
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PROTEST ACTIONS IN GEORGIA ARE COMING TO A HEAD
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20 April 2009
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How long the opposition’s rally in Tbilisi will last and how long can it maintain the protest mood? Many have asked this question since the seventh day of the protest rally when it became clear that the opposition had failed to take to the streets the number of protesters, which would be a weighty argument for the authorities to effect changes.
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WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE AFTER FIVE YEARS?
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16 April 2009
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It sometimes seems difficult to believe, but it’s been almost five years since Ukraine underwent its Orange Revolution – an event that for many put the country on the world map. For others, however, the heady days of late 2004 were a big show that has ended in even bigger disappointments.
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“GEORGIAN OPPOSITION IS READY TO ACT”
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09 April 2009
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The opposition rally started in Georgia on April 9. The opposition leaders are sure that they will make President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili resign, and the early elections will be called.
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SOCIALISM FOR BOURGEOISIE
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09 April 2009
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The Yiddish language has the word “hutspah” that means a person who killed his parents and, during the trial, he asks the judge to make allowance for him as he is an orphan. I believe that this word is the best to depict the morality of Russian big businessmen and most officials.
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RESET AT THE EXPENSE OF RULE OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS?
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08 April 2009
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On April 1, 2009 Baraсk Obama met with the Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev to establish agenda for the future bilateral cooperation. Although the presidents agreed on a number of critical issues, the human rights violations and lack of rule of law in Russia were obviously put aside.
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ROMANIA - AZERBAIJAN RELATIONS: OFFICIAL VISIT OF ROMANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER TO BAKU
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07 April 2009
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In my opinion, the dialogue, cooperation and partnership will be the key messages of my visit to Baku, its leitmotif, if you like. I am going to discuss with Minister Elmar Mammadyarov the present stage of our bilateral relations, in all fields: political, economic and cultural-scientific, as well as aspects of regional security and cooperation.
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SETTLING THE DISPUTE OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH
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01 April 2009
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With the idea of a compromise in mind, perhaps a unique situation can be arranged, where Nagorno-Karabakh is jointly recognized as a part of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The conditions worked out under this hypothetical agreement would concern the return of refugees and the finer points on how Nagorno-Karabakh would be administered.
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YANUKOVYCH: THE MAN WHO WOULDN’T BE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT
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30 March 2009
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He first rose to national political prominence in 2002, when he was appointed Ukrainian prime minister under President Leonid Kuchma. Analysts immediately foresaw a shift in power toward the country’s so-called Donetsk clan, which Yanukovych represented.
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RUSSIA-TURKMENISTAN RELATIONS
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27 March 2009
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Now Ashgabat seeks to take advantage of the economic recession strengthening its influence in the world and in Central Asia, and it seeks to step up cooperation with its neighbors.
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STATE VISIT OF TURKMEN PRESIDENT GURBANGULY BERDIMUHAMEDOV TO RUSSIA
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25 March 2009
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Russia has initiated the visit of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov of Turkmenistan to Moscow. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev personally invited his Turkmen counterpart to Russia, which shows that a lot of questions have been accumulated in Russia-Turkmenistan relations over the past six months.
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THE SEAL PROTECTION THE RUSSIAN WAY
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25 March 2009
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The main decision, which the Russian government made last week, concerned protection of seals. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin decided to ban the hunting of the Greenlandic seal cubs which are mercilessly killed for their fur when they are one year old. However, the Russian officials are used to applying a double standard to the protection of environment.
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GEORGIA: GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION AND EXTERNAL PLAYERS
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23 March 2009
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The external players, which have their own plans and interests in Georgia and the Caucasus region, have become increasingly involved in monitoring of the internal developments in the country along with raising Georgia’s political temperature.
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POSSIBLE BREAK-UP OF THE EURO AREA
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20 March 2009
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Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, said on March 6, 2009, that a default couldn’t take place in a euro area country and the assumption that the euro area could break up was “nonsense”. The statement is strange if to take into account that mass media said neither about the euro area break-up nor about the default.
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YUSHCHENKO: HOW LOW CAN HE GO?
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10 March 2009
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We all know about the rise and fall of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko. He was respected as the head of the National Bank, then trusted during his short stint as prime minister, and finally swept into the presidency during the country's Orange Revolution. It seemed like a fairy-tale political career - and indeed it was.
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“BELARUS’ POLICY OF BALANCING BETWEEN EUROPE AND RUSSIA IS SUCCESSFUL”
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06 March 2009
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Europe concluded that its previous tactics (democratization demand, sanctions toward Belarus’ authorities, support for the opposition) were inefficient. Poland and Lithuania urged the EU to change its policy towards Minsk. Germany is also interested in development of economic relations with Belarus.
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BELARUS IS TAKING THE ROAD OF LIBERALIZATION
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06 March 2009
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Minsk’s probable participation in the EU’s foreign-policy program “Eastern Partnership” is evidence of serious changes in Belarus. Rapprochement between Brussels and Minsk and, in general, of Belarus and the West is connected with the liberalization processes in Belarus, first and foremost, in the economic sphere.
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RUSSIA – TAJIKISTAN RELATIONS
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27 February 2009
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The informal part of Mr. Rahmon’s visit to Russia is of the greatest interest. The Presidents did the fishing, which could be interpreted in the following way: Moscow gives Dushanbe a fishing rod implying that it should fish by itself. It means that currently instead of relying only upon Russia, Tajikistan should seek extra foreign aid and investments.
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EXAMINATION IS TANTAMOUNT TO A NIGHTMARE
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27 February 2009
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As the spring approaches, thousands of people, who have not so far been concerned about the economic crisis, political problems and global depression, are getting seized with horror. Those are senior pupils who will have to take the Single State Examination. This examination itself is a bad piece of news. But the way Andrei Fursenko, Minister of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, is introducing the exam makes this piece of news still worse.
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WORKING VISIT OF EMOMALI RAHMON TO RUSSIA
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26 February 2009
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The visit of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to Russia made on February 24, testifies to the serious problems in Russia-Tajikistan relations as well as in the relations between Tajikistan and its Central Asian neighbors, above all, Uzbekistan.
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THE U.S. POLICY TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
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24 February 2009
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There are no new tendencies or changes in the U.S. policy towards the South Caucasus after the new U.S. Administration has been formed. Barack Obama has not worked out his South Caucasian policy yet. For the time being, the new U.S. authorities focus on overcoming the economic crisis.
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WHO'S AFRAID OF FINANCIAL COLLAPSE IN UKRAINE?
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24 February 2009
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Ukraine is dangerously close to a sovereign default, the analysts are telling us. The currency has already dived to nearly half of its value of last summer, along with traded stocks. Worse yet, many of the nation's banks are expected to fail, taking down with them the hopes and savings of a fledgling consumer society.
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WHY RUSSIA CREDITS ITS NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES
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19 February 2009
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The world financial crisis is a real challenge not only for Russia but also for the regional integration organizations and bilateral alliances in the former Soviet Union where Russia pretends to be the leader. This offers new opportunities as well as new challenges to Russia.
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IMPROVEMENT OF THE U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS IS GOOD FOR UKRAINE
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17 February 2009
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Ukraine doesn’t want to be affected by the problems caused by the U.S.-Russia bad relations. This is one of the reasons why Ukraine is to welcome the fact that the issue of cutbacks in the nuclear arsenal can become of importance to the U.S.A. and Russia again.
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THE GAS AGREEMENT WITH RUSSIA LED TO A NEW ROUND OF POLITICAL STRUGGLE IN UKRAINE
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17 February 2009
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The Russia-Ukraine gas conflict, which took place in January, is of great importance to Ukraine’s politics in 2009. The presidential election will be held at the beginning of 2010, so all the major Ukrainian policy-makers use the conflict and its settlement for the further political struggle.
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VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO VS YULIYA TYMOSHENKO: BUSINESS RULES ARE APPLIED TO UKRAINE’S POLITICS
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16 February 2009
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There are several deep-rooted causes for the President-Prime Minister confrontation in Ukraine. The first one is the presidential election is not far off. Yuliya Tymoshenko is one of the main potential presidential candidates and rivals of both Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych.
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“CASTING DOUBT ON THE AGREEMENTS, WHICH WERE SO DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE WITH RUSSIA, IS A MISTAKE”
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13 February 2009
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko's criticizing Yuliya Tymoshenko’s gas agreements with Russia at the meeting of the Council of National Security and Defense, which was held on February 10, 2009, indicates that the President’s fight against his political competitors has reached an inadmissible level.
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PERMANENT DEVALUATION
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12 February 2009
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The Russian government has a reason to be quite happy. The oil price has reached this winter $41-42 for a barrel, which is half the price written in Russia’s 2009 budget, but which is better than $25-30 for a barrel that the oil market sought to fix in the autumn. It is not a surprise: oil prices have a tendency to come up in winter since it is cold in the northern hemisphere and the fuel demand is growing.
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OH, WHAT A TANGLED WEB OF GAS PIPELINE PROJECTS!
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09 February 2009
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One of the causes most often given for the start of World War One is the maze of bilateral treaties that had been signed between the European powers of the day. One country was obliged to declare war against another because it had signed a mutual defense pact to come to its ally’s aid in case of an attack.
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“NIKOLOZ GILAURI IS ONE OF THE MOST EXPERIENCED MINISTERS”
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06 February 2009
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Frequent changes of Prime Ministers are good for the opposition members. They can criticize the authorities more actively, talk about the instability in the country, but they do not care who will be the next Prime Minister.
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“MOSCOW MADE MORE ADVANTAGEOUS OFFER TO BISHKEK THAN THE U.S.A. DID”
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04 February 2009
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The visit of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan to Moscow on February 3-4 showed Bishkek’s intention of improving the relations with Russia.
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DEVALUATION RACE
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29 January 2009
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During the economic crisis all states try to protect their domestic markets. But they are not bold enough to impose administrative measures for this, and a sharp rise of import tariffs is against the WTO rules. Moreover, the liberal ideology blames such actions. The only simple decision is to devalue national currency. Many governments resort to this measure simultaneously and even try to outdo each other.
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U.S. - RUSSIA RELATIONS UNDER THE NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION
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23 January 2009
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The rivalry between Moscow and Washington regarding the post-Soviet space will be still urgent under President Obama, but it won’t be crucial as it was under the previous Administration. A certain compromise is possible to achieve.
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THE SPOILS OF GAS WAR
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20 January 2009
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It is often the case that wars result in a redrawing of international maps or a reshuffling of a country's political deck. Ukraine's recent gas war with Russia appears to be no exception in as much as it is likely to change the face of Europe's energy map while reshuffling the political elite in Kyiv. Wars, however, not only offer up spoils to the victor; they also spoil a lot of other things for those who are involved or not.
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THE GAS CRISIS IMPACT ON UKRAINE’S POLITICS
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19 January 2009
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Russia-Ukraine gas dispute has had several consequences for the Ukrainian politics. As regards tactics, it led to polarization of views in the Ukrainian political establishment and in the Parliament.
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“THE GAS CRISIS HAS POSITIVELY INFLUENCED UKRAINE’S POLITICS”
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16 January 2009
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The ruling class has become more consolidated, the positions of President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko have become closer. But the opposition Party of Regions’ reputation can be tainted and the Party can lose the confidence of its voters in the eastern Ukrainian regions.
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BEGINNING OF THE DIFFICULT YEAR
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16 January 2009
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For the Russian economy good and bad events took place at the beginning of the year 2009. The good events are the gas dispute with Ukraine and the Gaza Strip war. Many people have been killed, many buildings have been destroyed, which is good for the Russian economy. The situation in the entire Middle East can be destabilized, and then the oil prices will grow again making the Russian government breathe with relief.
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GAS CONFLICT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
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14 January 2009
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The result of the Russia-Ukraine gas conflict, which broke out by tradition on New Year's Eve, is quite predictable – the Russian gas will be supplied to the European consumers but Gazprom’s reputation has been seriously tarnished. In one of the most severe winters Europe does not receive gas, and though Russia tries to shift the blame onto Ukraine (its state collapse is evident), Moscow is also responsible for the conflict.
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DOES THE US–GEORGIA CHARTER ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP CHALLENGE RUSSIA?
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14 January 2009
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It is difficult to forecast how diligently the Administration of President Barack Obama will follow the above-mentioned articles of the Charter. But there is a high probability (taking into consideration the increased tension in the Russia-U.S. relations) that Russia would consider the Charter as a challenge to its interests in South Caucasus.
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GEORGIA IN 2008
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26 December 2008
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The year 2008 was the most eventful in the entire history of independent Georgia. It started with the January presidential election: it was held against a background of the mass protest marches in November 2007.
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MEDVEDEV’S INITIATIVE ABOUT EUROPEAN SECURITY SERVES EUROPE’S INTERESTS
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25 December 2008
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I believe that the initiative to sign the new European Security Treaty that is to unite all the states of the Euro-Atlantic world fully meets Moldova’s foreign-policy doctrine. Moreover, Moldova is interested in creating such a mechanism more than other European countries.
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BELARUS DURING THE ECONOMIC CRISIS
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25 December 2008
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The policy followed by the Belarusian authorities during the financial and economic crisis confirms the axiom of the economic influence on the politics. In Belarus the economic situation exerts considerable influence upon the politics.
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UNFORTUNATE CONSEQUENCES OF THE GOVERNMENT VICTORY
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24 December 2008
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It looks like the government officials fail to realize that their actions are conductive to the politicization of the protests. What is more, they have bolstered the liberal opposition that had nearly ceased to exist and that now supports the demonstrating motorists.
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UKRAINE-RUSSIA: LOOKING FOR UNDERSTANDING
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23 December 2008
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"I believe that Russia has done everything in its power to block Ukraine’s admission to NATO. Moscow regards Ukraine's non-accession to the NATO membership Action Plan as its victory", Grigory Perepelitsa.
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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN TURKMENISTAN
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19 December 2008
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The main goal of the election was to confirm President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov’s image. It is almost two years since Saparmurat Niyazov died and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov became the President. It is necessary to show that he has more democratic beliefs than his predecessor had and is going to reform Turkmenistan’s political system.
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EU'S “EASTERN PARTNERSHIP” AND RUSSIA-BELARUS RELATIONS
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18 December 2008
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Minsk has recently supported the EU’s new foreign-policy program “Eastern Partnership” and has already confirmed its readiness to formalize the program jointly with the European Commission, said Andrey Popov, spokesman for the Belarusian Foreign Ministry.
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UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT IN CHECK
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18 December 2008
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The lady in braids has shown the political skill and ruthlessness worthy of Russian czars and Bolshevik commissars. The presidential race is still over a year away, and in a country like Ukraine anything can happen in the interim, but for now Ms. Tymoshenko is firmly in control of the chessboard of power in Kyiv.
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GUIDED DISASTER
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12 December 2008
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The question “should Russia join the WTO?” has recently given place to the question “why should Russia do that now?” During the economic upsurge it is possible to speak about advantages and disadvantages of joining the WTO, but during the economic crisis we can raise this question only if we try to aggravate the situation deliberately.
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VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE ELECTED A NEW SPEAKER
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10 December 2008
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The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has elected a new Speaker, Volodymyr Lytvyn. But an amorphous majority is created instead of the new coalition. Moreover, this majority cannot be regarded as the ‘orange’ coalition.
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NO MORE SUPERPOWER PLAYOFFS
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10 December 2008
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For centuries, Ukraine's Cossacks were able to play off the superpowers of their time. Some would argue that the survival of the Ukrainian nation depended on a 'flexible' foreign policy. Unfortunately, the result of this policy was a culture of persistent internal division that eventually led to Russian domination.
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REASONS FOR MINISTERIAL RESHUFFLES IN GEORGIA
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09 December 2008
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Grigol Mgaloblishvili, the new Georgian Prime Minister, was appointed about a month and a half ago. Then there were made ministerial reshuffles without significant changes. So, it is incomprehensible why President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia decided to reshuffle the government again on 5 December.
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THE TERRIBLE C-WORD
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08 December 2008
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The cri… no the word will not be uttered. Now that President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin have finally allowed themselves to belatedly use the word, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for me to spit it out of these lips. It’s c-this and c-that. If there was C-Span in Russia then it would be c-ing all day and all night long.
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SETTLEMENT OF THE TRANSNISTRIAN CONFLICT CAME TO A DEADLOCK
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05 December 2008
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Russia’s attempt to make the parties sign the “Kozak memorandum” again was strongly opposed by the West. Asif Chaudhry, the U.S. ambassador to Moldova, stated on 24 November that it made no sense to return to that document.
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ECONOMIC CRISIS UNITES YULIYA TYMOSHENKO BLOC AND PARTY OF REGIONS
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05 December 2008
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The potential Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions alliance can be created formally or informally. Regardless of the alliance format, this would be the best scenario because then the presidential campaign would be free of stark confrontations.
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FIVE YEARS AFTER THE ROSE REVOLUTION
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01 December 2008
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For the first time, Georgia has not celebrated the anniversary of the Rose Revolution in a traditional pompous way and the authorities have not boasted about their successes as they had done annually on 23 November since 2003.
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CRYING IN THE TURKEY
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01 December 2008
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Americans celebrated Thanksgiving on Thursday, November 27, but they have a lot less to be thankful for during these difficult economic times. Congress has approved a $700 billion bailout for the country to ease its financial constraint, but no one seems to know where the money is going.
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CONVERSATION WITH A GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL
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26 November 2008
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It is clear that the current authorities are maneuvering but they are doing that unsuccessfully, inconsistently and unreasonably. Such maneuvers would break up the ranks even of the famous grenadiers of Friedrich the Great, the Prussian king. The Russian officials do not resemble the Prussian infantry battalion.
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FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ROSE REVOLUTION
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25 November 2008
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The main reason why the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution is not celebrated with a great pomp is that the Georgians are bitterly disappointed with the results of the revolution. In fact, nobody was going to carry out democratic reforms, although the ‘revolutionaries’ had set themselves this goal.
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FROM POST-SOVIET BUFFER TO GANGSTER GAP
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24 November 2008
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A report recently released by U.S. intelligence agencies predicts that American influence on the global stage will diminish over the next 15 years, as the rise of powers such as China, India and other third-world giants creates a more multi-polar planet. So where does Ukraine fit into this scenario?
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GEORGIAN OPPOSITION FACES NEW CHALLENGES
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19 November 2008
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Over the past 10 months, most of opposition leaders have not enjoyed public support because they failed to solve important political issues and fell short of expectations of those who were strongly opposed to the government.
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VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE ELECTS A NEW SPEAKER
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19 November 2008
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A parliamentary majority should be formed in order to elect a new speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. This majority could become a new coalition.
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UKRAINE'S INDEPENDENCE DEPENDENT ON RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
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17 November 2008
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Now, more than any time since the country gained independence 17 years ago, Ukraine looks destined to come back under Russian hegemony. Ironically, the more the pro-Western administration of President Viktor Yushchenko resists this outcome, the greater the chances of it coming about.
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UZBEKISTAN WITHDRAWS FROM THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
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13 November 2008
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Over the past year the U.S. and EU representatives have actively interacted with Tashkent. Uzbekistan’s foreign policy is the same as that of its neighbors – the Central Asian countries are guided by the much talked-about "multivector" policy.
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STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE IN THE NEW INDEPENDENT STATES
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11 November 2008
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One of the major resources that the New Independent States inherited from the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union is the Russian language. During several generations the Russian people have put all the huge human and financial resources in its development. What is the current position and what are the prospects of the Russian language in the NIS?
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN THE USA
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11 November 2008
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Barack Obama is an outstanding policy-maker. He was considered to be a classical marginal politician, who had nothing to do with the U.S. political establishment and who was not taken seriously. But he felt that the U.S. voters expected changes.
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BARACK OBAMA - KING FOR A DAY
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10 November 2008
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The buzz over the election of America's first black president, Barack Obama, continues unabated. Fresh faced, eloquent and from a modest background, his 'story' sells well just about everywhere. But being liked so much for doing so little is a little like being king for a day, secretly hoping that the reality of tomorrow never has to come.
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VICTIMS OF THE CRISIS
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07 November 2008
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Today the list of victims of the economic crisis in Russia is not long but is extremely revealing. It starts with “Moskovsky Korrespondent” weekly that appeared at the end of September and was closed in October. The fact that the newspaper, which is independent of the Kremlin, was the first to be closed, is very significant.
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WILL THE US-RUSSIA RELATIONS BE RESTORED?
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06 November 2008
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Two months of blaming rhetoric between Russia and the US leaders, prompted by the August Caucasus crisis, nearly annihilated all the diplomatic achievements in the relationships between the two countries of the current millennium, and caused frustration among the diplomats on both sides.
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TRANSNISTRIA: WAYS OF INTEGRATION INTO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
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05 November 2008
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The goal of Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov’s visit to Moscow was to continue the work with the Russian authorities that we had been carrying out for the whole period of the development of Transnistria and our relations with Russia.
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LOOKING FOR A RUSSIAN OBAMA
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05 November 2008
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When were you last excited about an election in Russia? Any election? I've seen four presidential elections in Russia and the only one that had any excitement was in 1996 when many feared a Communist victory would swing the country back to its Soviet past.
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DEMOCRATIC UNCERTAINTY BEFORE ELECTIONS IN AMERICA AND UKRAINE
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31 October 2008
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The 2008 U.S. presidential-election campaign has been watched with much anticipation, both at home and abroad. There’s a woman vice president on the Republican ticket, and an African-American being fielded by the Democrats for the nation’s top job. Whichever party wins, history will be made.
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DISMISSAL OF GEORGIAN PRIME MINISTER VLADIMIR GURGENIDZE
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29 October 2008
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I believe that Georgia's Prime Minister Vladimir Gurgenidze was dismissed over both the Russia-Georgia armed conflict and the internal political situation. The August conflict in South Ossetia made it clear that the policy, pursued by the Georgian government must be changed and some reshuffles were necessary.
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UKRAINIAN LEADERS TURN THEIR BACKS ON FINANCIAL CRISIS
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27 October 2008
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Along with Eastern Europe's other so-called emerging economies, Ukraine has been posting impressive rates of growth over the past several years. Now all that has been undone, and everyone is hoping that the International Monetary Fund will come to Ukraine's rescue.
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EU POLICY TOWARDS BELARUS
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24 October 2008
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Several factors influenced the change of EU policy towards Belarus and the lifting of the sanctions for some Belarusian officials in the EU. But it is difficult to speak about the public opinion changes in view of the change in Europe-Belarus relations.
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THERE WILL BE NO WAR
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24 October 2008
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It looks like there will be no war between Russia and Ukraine. It is clear that this fact will upset many in Moscow and Kyiv, but, unfortunately, there is a need to face realities. The efforts made by militarism heralds, admirers of Ukrainian hetman Ivan Mazepa and defenders of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet proved to be futile.
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN AZERBAIJAN
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20 October 2008
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The presidential election in Azerbaijan is of little interest in terms of influence on the political situation in the country and in the South Caucasus as a whole. The election returns are quite predictable, incumbent President Ilham Aliyev has no serious rivals and his easy victory was assured.
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IN SEARCH OF A FORMER GEORGIAN SSR SETTLEMENT
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20 October 2008
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It is difficult for Russia to change its decision to recognize Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence. Several options serve as a possible means for reaching a mutually agreed settlement.
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE. CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
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17 October 2008
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There is a question about the situation after the elections. But why should it change? If the elections outcome is about the same as in the last elections (the public opinion polls show that), the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine will not have the majority to build a coalition.
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UKRAINE'S PLAYGROUND POLITICS
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17 October 2008
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With stability no where in sight and two more elections just around the corner, Ukraine's political playground is proving to be increasingly fractious. More importantly, the lunch mothers in the West are more concerned about a looming world recession, leaving Ukraine more and more to the over-protective oversight of Mother Russia.
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DISSOLUTION OF THE VERKHOVNA RADA: POSSIBILITIES AND RISKS
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15 October 2008
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Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko herself have reacted negatively to President Viktor Yushchenko’s decision to dissolve the Verkhovha Rada and to hold early parliamentary elections.
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I'M GONNA PARTY LIKE IT'S 1998
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15 October 2008
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Take a drive around Moscow’s Garden Ring. Leave from the Railway ministry near Krasniye Vorota and go anticlockwise toward Tsvetnoi Bulvar. Time will stand still if you are sitting in a traffic jam but if you have a free road, look upwards at the clocks on buildings and you can go back in time.
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UKRAINE IS FORCED TO CHOOSE UNSTABILITY
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14 October 2008
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On October 8, in his message to the people President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko announced the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada. His speech was based on the allegation that Yuliya Tymoshenko and her decisions “threaten Ukraine”.
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AN INTRODUCTION TO THE CRISIS
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13 October 2008
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The Russian society is vaguely alarmed by the world economic crisis. I say “vaguely” because the people cannot realize how the events in the distant USA are connected with the Russian reality and how the stock market crash will tell on their wellbeing. The oil is being produced, the factories continue operating and the public transport works properly.
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DOES THE CIS HAVE THE FUTURE?
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09 October 2008
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"Every year somebody says that the Commonwealth of Independent States is dead as organization. However, what do we need this organization for? Unfortunately, in many respects the question cannot be answered in an optimistic way", Alexey Vlasov.
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ELECTIONS IN LIEU OF STABILITY
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09 October 2008
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Ukraine is going to hold its fifth general elections in as many years, but don't expect the upcoming parliamentary vote to stabilize the country's chaotic political arena any time soon. Ever since President Viktor Yushchenko was elected on a pro-Western platform back in 2005, the seats of power in the former Soviet republic have been contested in a no-holds-barred dogfight that is desperate to the point of absurdity.
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RUSSIA-U.S. RELATIONS: WHAT NEXT?
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06 October 2008
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According to Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev, the armed conflict between Georgia and Russia has changed the world. This may be an exaggeration, but in fact the war has changed the Russian foreign policy, it deeply influences Russia’s economy and Moscow's relations with the West and the New Independent States.
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MARGINALITY, “ASSERVIVE SOVEREIGNTY” AND DISCURSIVE SYMMETRIES
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03 October 2008
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Georgeta Pourchot’s book is certainly worth of academic attention due to the author’s claim that the traditional/classical geopolitical considerations are not any longer sufficient for in-depth comprehension of the developments in the post-Soviet/post-Socialist area.
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THE EUROPEAN SUBCONTINENT
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01 October 2008
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In Transcarpathia, near the Ukrainian village of Delovoe, there are three geodetic signs indicating the geographic center of the European subcontinent. The first sign was put up in 1887 under Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria. The second one was set up by the members of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. The third one was put up in the first years of Ukraine’s independence after the Soviet Union had collapsed.
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WHY TURKEY BECAME MORE ACTIVE IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
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01 October 2008
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During the conflict between Russia and Georgia Turkey took an active position becoming a mediator between the parties. But Turkey is far from achieving its foreign policy goals because it has no long-term strategy towards the South Caucasus region.
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THE OUTCOME OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN BELARUS
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30 September 2008
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There is no sense in attaching superfluous importance to the last election campaign in Belarus. Previous Parliament drafted only one bill on its own for four years. All its activities were reduced to the acceptance of the Cabinet and President’s initiatives.
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WHEN REALPOLITIK IS NOT A REALISTIC OPTION
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30 September 2008
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The most predictable results of the parliamentary elections that took place in Belarus on 28 September 2008 were accepted as a great surprise and even a sensation in the West and partly even in Belarus.
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A CREDIT TO THEMSELVES
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30 September 2008
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You can't trust anyone these days. You go on holiday for a couple of weeks and when you come back the world is teetering on the edge of a financial abyss. Banks are imploding, insurance companies are collapsing. Still, I'm glad that I got my five credit cards when I could.
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MEDVEDEV-2
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25 September 2008
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Russia’s victory over Georgia in the armed conflict in South Ossetia, the diplomatic maneuvers which followed the conflict and showed that the Western community cannot (and does not want to) oppose Russia in a serious way, and Dmitry Medvedev’s bold statements at the Valdai International Discussion Club make the President of Russia ‘a hero of the day’.
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"WEST SHOULD ADMIT THAT RUSSIA HAS ITS OWN INTERESTS"
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22 September 2008
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The USA, where the presidential election campaign goes full swing, tries to take the toughest possible line with Russia. In many respects that is why some American government officials seek to support Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili.
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THE BREAKUP OF THE 'ORANGE' COALITION
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17 September 2008
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The main reason for the breakup of the 'orange' coalition is that President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko does not want to accept Yuliya Tymoshenko's wide popularity in Ukraine.
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THE FUTURE OF VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO AND POLITICAL CRISIS IN UKRAINE
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16 September 2008
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"Currently there are a few people in Ukraine backing Viktor Yushchenko’s nation building and cultural project, and if the early elections were called the votes could be distributed, in the main, between the Party of Regions and Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc," Vitaly Portnikov said.
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HOW TO QUARREL WITH A NEIGHBOUR
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11 September 2008
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It seems that after the conflict with Georgia all we need is to clash with Ukraine. A lot of politicians both in Russia and Ukraine would definitely like it to happen. Caucasian crisis resulted in a new quarrel over Sevastopol, this time provoked by the Ukrainian side.
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ARMENIA VOICED ITS POSITION TO THE KREMLIN
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09 September 2008
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At present, Russia tries to persuade its closest allies to follow Moscow’s example and to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s independence. Armenia could be the first CIS country to support Moscow's decision.
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RUSSIA STRENGTHENS ITS ROLE IN CENTRAL ASIA
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08 September 2008
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It is known that at the recent SCO summit, which took place in Dushanbe on August 28, the Central Asian states and China publicly interpreted Russia’s military operation in the Caucasus in a restrained way, but on the whole Moscow's actions were supported.
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HAPPY BIRTHDAY MOSCOW
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05 September 2008
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I once lived off Tverskaya in a house that had a spacious courtyard which would see a steady trickle of men celebrating City Day who were drawn like a teenager to a can of gin and tonic to relieve themselves of a bladder full of Baltika's finest. Now, that is not really the kind of thing that sends me into a fury.
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LUKASHENKA TRIES TO MAKE A CLEAR CHOICE
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01 September 2008
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The main question, which has arisen before the Belarusian political elite, is with whom they should build relationships, with the East or with the West. The current political situation indicates that Belarus has reached a geopolitical impasse.
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UKRAINE’S INDEFENSIBLE POSITION - IN THE WAKE OF GEORGIA
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01 September 2008
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Since 1991, Ukraine has sat on the fence like a country coquette with her back to her jealous ex-husband Russia, from which the country’s ‘elite’ have nevertheless continued to get rich on cheap gas, while batting her eyes at the glamorous West, which offers lots of nice gifts but never a firm proposal of marriage.
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CONSEQUENCES OF THE GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN CONFRONTATION
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29 August 2008
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Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia has been made not only by the Russian President and the Russian political establishment, but also, regrettably, by the majority of the Russian citizens. Few people in Russia criticized their authorities.
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A PAROLE THAT WAS NOT GIVEN
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28 August 2008
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Mikhail Khodorkovsky is out of luck again. This time he was refused parole despite he had seemed to have good chances for it. The authorities made it clear that there was every reason for hoping… Being a state’s prisoner, the disgraced tycoon hoped that the new president of Russia would release him.
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ENOUGH GRAND-STANDING BY THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT
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27 August 2008
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The typical criticism of the UK’s Foreign Office is the one eloquently expressed in John Le Carre’s The Constant Gardener - that they are pitiless practitioners of real-politik who care more about stability than idealism, and who only really work to protect the interests of British corporations, rather than British values. But on Russia, the Foreign Office seems to have erred on the other side.
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THE REASONS FOR THE GEORGIAN OPERATION IN SOUTH OSSETIA
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26 August 2008
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When holding the military operation in South Ossetia the Georgian government tried to solve the problem of territorial integrity. If the military operation in South Ossetia had been successful, Saakashvili would have again recieved wide support from the Georgian population and his country could have been integrated into the Western community.
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HOW TO GET AHEAD IN GOVERNMENT
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22 August 2008
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I read the story in the New York Times this week, "West Baffled by 2 Heads for Russian Government," and it gave me quite a turn. This article talks of how "there is a sense of bewilderment in Washington about how to deal with what is now a two-headed government in Moscow."
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RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN CONFLICT. EUROPE SUPPORTS THE U.S. POSITION
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20 August 2008
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Yesterday I could say that in Europe there were differences in relation to Russia’s actions in South Ossetia. Some countries blamed Georgia for the conflict, others blamed Russia. But at present there is a different tendency.
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TRUE COLORS - UKRAINE'S REACTION TO CONFLICT IN SOUTH OSSETIA
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18 August 2008
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By sending troops into Georgia earlier this month, the Kremlin has shown its willingness to use force to check the advance of the West into what it considers Russia's zone of influence. The pretext for the invasion, Georgia's military clampdown on its separatist region of South Ossetia, is irrelevant.
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CURRENT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
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15 August 2008
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From 1998 to 2004 we had kept the inflation at the level of 3-4%. This was the best result in the CIS. At present the inflation makes up 30-40%. 40% is a critical level, if it heightened, Kyrgyzstan would face economic recession.
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BAD HABITS ARE CONTAGIOUS
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14 August 2008
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Georgia has resolutely condemned Russia’s actions in Chechnya. Russia has severely criticized NATO actions towards Serbia. Later on the Georgian authorities tried to do the same thing in South Ossetia as the Russian authorities had done in Chechnya. Moscow decided to treat Georgia in the same way as NATO had treated Serbia.
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WAR IN SOUTH OSSETIA – TIME TO MAKE WISE DECISIONS STILL REMAINS
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12 August 2008
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The guns are bellowing now in South Ossetia and Georgia, and muses of those who might mull over the solution of the grave crisis, are still silent. Many things including the people’s lives depend on how long the diplomats and policy-makers will be inactive.
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ICE KING OF THE CASTLE
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08 August 2008
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There was a game we played when I was a child where you would run to the top of the nearest hill, sand dune or rampaging Tyrannosaurus Rex (kids had more imagination in those days) and shout “I'm the King of the Castle and you're the dirty rascal.” These last words were said whilst pointing at the poor unfortunates who had failed to get to the top in time.
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THE EU CRISIS PARADOX
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08 August 2008
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The rejection of the Treaty of Lisbon on June 12, 2008 by the Irish electorate made a lot of noise in the world. Ireland was given a number of different epithets, from “Europe's gravedigger” to “the last bastion of democracy”. |
BELARUS IS PREPARING FOR THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
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07 August 2008
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The parliamentary elections in Belarus will be held on September 28. There remains a little time before the elections. But the Belarusian opposition is unlikely to have been united by the polling day. It is completely disintegrated.
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WADING INTO THE WOES – UKRAINIAN POLITICIANS SHOW HOW MUCH THEY CARE
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06 August 2008
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Ukraine has again been challenged by disaster – not another coalmine disaster, which continue to claim lives on a small scale, or a deadly military mishap (thank goodness), or even a gas explosion at one of the country’s innumerable apartment blocs. No, this time it’s flooding in the country’s rural western regions.
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YULIYA TYMOSHENKO IMPROVES THE RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW
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06 August 2008
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When Yuliya Tymoshenko was firstly going to visit Russia as Prime Minister after the last parliamentary elections, I believed that this might be a breakthrough in the Russian-Ukrainian relations.
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RADOVAN KARADZIC FACES TRIAL. BUT WHO CAN JUDGE?
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04 August 2008
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According to the generally accepted political logic, the arrest of Radovan Karadzic and his bringing to Hague Tribunal are expected to put an end to the Balkan drama of 1990s. But what’s actually happening seems to be quite the reverse. The Serbian society suffered another indignity as Kosovo had declared independence in February of 2008.
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RELIGION IN UKRAINE - THERE'S NOTHING UNIFYING ABOUT IT
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28 July 2008
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On Friday, July 25, the Russian Foreign Ministry released a statement in which it noted that "events dedicated to the 1,020th anniversary of the acceptance of Christianity by Rus are being held in Kyiv in an atmosphere of disrespect toward the Russian Orthodox Church and the feelings of millions of Orthodox believers in Russia and Ukraine."
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SUMMING UP THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING ON GEORGIA
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25 July 2008
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I believe that the withdrawal of the Russian railroad troops from Abkhazia and the UN Security Council meeting, which was held on July 21 at Georgia’s request, cannot be directly linked to each other.
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THIS IS AN OFFICE NOW
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25 July 2008
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The good people of Vladivostok recently had the chance to see my mug on their televisions. Or the chance not to watch it. Anyone further west however was denied that chance after NTV pulled reporter Andrei Loshak's documentary from the schedule even though it had already been shown in the Far East.
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DETERIORATION OF THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
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23 July 2008
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I do not think there is a relation between the UN Security Council meeting where the Russian fighter jets’ violations of the Georgian airspace were discussed and the withdrawal of the Russian railroad troops from Abkhazia.
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“SEA BREEZE-2008” AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE’S JOINING NATO
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22 July 2008
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The holding of “Sea Breeze” military exercises and Ukraine’s joining NATO should be regarded as two different processes. Some people want to unite them, but Kyiv has not applied for the NATO membership yet. Ukraine has not received the NATO Membership Action Plan and, apparently, will not recieve it in December.
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HISTORY, RELIGION AND LANGUAGE – KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL
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22 July 2008
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Remember the shell game, in which the unsuspecting player is challenged to follow a little ball with his eyes as it rolls from under one shell to the next with lightning speed? When the game operator finally stops, the player is asked to guess which shell the ball lies under in order to win a prize. However, in most cases, the operator has already managed to slip the ball into his own hands, thereby making any guess by the player a losing one.
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UKRAINE: SUMMING UP THE POLITICAL SEASON
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18 July 2008
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The winter-spring political season in Ukraine was determined by two peculiarities. Firstly, this is the influence of the 2007 early parliamentary elections on many events in the country in 2008. The second peculiarity is a more complicated and fundamental problem of institutionalization of the Parliament in the context of the constitutional changes.
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RESHUFFLES IN BELARUS
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18 July 2008
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The formal reason why the officials were fired is an explosion in Minsk on the Independence Day. It is clear that the explosion is just a pretext for such important reshuffles. If to proceed from the official version, it would be logical to sack the Head of the KGB and the Minister of the Interior. But that did not happen.
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THE EVOLUTION OF RUSSIA’S CENTRAL ASIA POLICY
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17 July 2008
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Eurasian Home with a kind permission of Defence Academy of the United Kingdom publishes an analytical report on Russia's policy in Central Asia, written by Vladimir Paramonov and Aleksey Strokov.
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VICIOUS CIRCLE
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17 July 2008
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The Russian foreign policy boringly runs around in circles: the row with Estonia on the historic past, the squabbles between Moscow and Kyiv over the Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the confrontation with Georgia because of its breakaway republics etc. After having made a full circle we are back to square one - another conflict with Georgia.
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SAVING THE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT’S FACE
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15 July 2008
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has lost a lot since the heady days of his country’s Orange Revolution – executive power (due to constitutional changes), voter support (due to endless infighting) and international prestige (for lack of reform). More recently, his reputation as a martyr for democracy has also come under threat.
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BURJANADZE RETURNS?!
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11 July 2008
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Ex-chairwoman of the Georgian Parliament Nino Burjanadze who had scandalously quitted President Mikheil Saakashvili’s team right before the May 21, 2008 parliamentary elections, returned to politics the very way that was most expected from her cautious and pragmatic mind.
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LESS GOVERNMENT, MORE NATURAL SELECTION
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10 July 2008
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This week, 150 years ago, two papers were read out at the Linnean Society in London, one by Alfred Russell Wallace and the other by Charles Darwin, which first laid out to the world Darwin’s theory of natural selection. Darwin’s theory continues to have a profound influence on psychology, via the growingly dominant theory of Evolutionary Psychology (EP).
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SMILEY FACE ON A FOOTBALL
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08 July 2008
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If there is one thing that has been hard to change in independent Ukraine, it's the country's image. Maybe that's why Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who has seen his own near demigod image from the 2004 Orange Revolution reduced to that of a mere man desperate to be re-elected, is so keen on successfully hosting the European football championship in 2012.
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WHEN THERE’S NO CONCORD: BATUMI GUAM SUMMIT
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04 July 2008
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On July 1, 2008 in Batumi (Georgia) a summit of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM took place. Despite the pompous proclamations of some GUAM leaders, the attempt to come to an agreement on major questions failed.
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WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY AND JOHN TALBOT?
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04 July 2008
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The English military leader John Talbot died at the Battle of Castillon, because he had entered the battlefield wearing no armor. Sir John understood quite well, what could be caused by such a neglect of own safety, but he had no choice. Shortly before that, when he was released from captivity, he promised “never to wear armor against the French King again.”
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CHINESE SECURITY INTERESTS IN CENTRAL ASIA
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03 July 2008
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Eurasian Home with a kind permission of Defence Academy of the United Kingdom publishes an analytical report on Chinese politics in Central Asia, written by Vladimir Paramonov and Oleg Stolpovski.
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PLAYING UP TO PUTIN
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01 July 2008
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Last weekend saw the visit of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to Moscow, where she met with Vladimir Putin for the first time since he went from being Russia’s president to heading his country’s government. During the joint press conference both premiers chose their words carefully, demonstrating the sensitivity of current Russian-Ukrainian relations.
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VISIT OF ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SERZH SARGSYAN TO MOSCOW
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27 June 2008
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The Russian-Armenian relations can be regarded as invariably good and stable. So, the visit of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to Moscow could not change the Russian-Armenian relations drastically. For all that, it was of great importance.
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ANOTHER SUMMER OF DISCONTENT IN UKRAINIAN POLITICS
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25 June 2008
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Ever since Ukraine’s Orange Revolution swept pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko into power, summer has been a time of particular discontent in the country’s political life. The summer of 2005 saw infighting in the Orange camp escalate into Yushchenko’s firing of co-revolutionary Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
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THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE IN THE CIS COUNTRIES
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24 June 2008
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"I would like to mention three “agents” that can improve the situation with the Russian language in the post-Soviet space. Those include our government, NGOs and Russian companies", Konstantin Simonov.
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NATO EXPANSION – DON’T EXPECT THE RUSSIANS TO AGREE
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18 June 2008
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If NATO can bring Ukrainians rule of law and a decent living standard, it would already have justified its expansion. But judging by the way other Western reforms have been perverted in Ukraine, one couldn’t be blamed for having serious doubts. Probably with more candidness, Mr. Yushchenko pointed out that Ukraine can join any international organization that it likes.
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UKRAINE’S LOSE-LOSE MENTALITY
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11 June 2008
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There is an old joke in Ukraine: two Ukrainians find a bottle containing a genie who grants them each a wish. The first Ukrainian requests and gets what he wants; the second Ukrainian uses his wish to cancel the wish of his countryman. The joke is that envy to the detriment of one's own interests is part of the Ukrainian national character. Certainly this seems to be the case with the country’s politicians.
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NATIONAL PROJECT WITH A STRADIVARIUS
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10 June 2008
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Who would think that a banal song contest like Eurovision can trigger new round of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. When Kyiv won the right to host the finals of the 50th Eurovision contest, Moscow was sick with envy and spent millions to catch up with the Western neighbor. It cost Russia several expensive but futile attempts. And finally at Eurovision 2008 Russian pop singer Dima Bilan won the contest.
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WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC “ORANGE” COALITION IN UKRAINE?
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09 June 2008
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The fact that two Verkhovna Rada legislators, Igor Rybakov and Yuri Bout, have withdrawn from the democratic coalition casts doubt on its prospects.
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INFORMAL CIS SUMMIT IN ST.PETERSBURG
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09 June 2008
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The main result to be drawn from the informal CIS summit is that under the new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev Russia's policy in the post-Soviet space will not change drastically.
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UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
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06 June 2008
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It is intolerable that, according to public opinion polls in Russia, Ukraine ranks third among the unfriendly states. In Ukraine Russia ranks first as a friendly one. Probably, this indicates that the information policies in Ukraine and Russia are different.
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YUSHCHENKO AND TYMOSHENKO: ANOTHER TRUCE?
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06 June 2008
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I believe that President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko will prolong the truce till the autumn. If there are no political convulsions, no coalition reformating and if the early elections are not held before October-November, one can hope that relative political stability will be maintained in Ukraine for a longer time.
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WESTERN INTEGRATION – THE GREAT ORANGE HOPE
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05 June 2008
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his one-time ally Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko have increasingly traded blows over the country’s budget, privatization, energy policy and, most recently, the Kyiv mayoral elections; however, when it comes to foreign policy, the two politicians who rose to power during Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution show unusual and possibly even unintended solidarity.
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THE FIRST VISITS OF THE NEW RUSSIAN PRESIDENT
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04 June 2008
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The maiden foreign trip of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev indicates that Moscow prefers to unite with the East against the West.
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EMBARRASSMENT IN THE KREMLIN
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03 June 2008
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Despite the propaganda declarations that Russia has finally “risen from the knees” and “returned its status of a superpower”, the Kremlin’s foreign policy is still characterized by inconsistency and complete absence of strategic planning. True, there has been perceptible change since the 1990s – the Kremlin has become more independent in decision-making, the Russian elite are aware of the state interests.
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RUSSIAN PRIME MINISTER VLADIMIR PUTIN VISITS FRANCE
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30 May 2008
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Vladimir Putin’s visit to France is quite unique. In a week new Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev is to arrive in France and Germany. It looks like Prime Minister Putin overshadows President Medvedev. During his visit to Paris Vladimir Putin shows the world leaders that he is in charge of the Russian foreign policy.
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STICKING OUT THE UKRAINIAN TONGUE
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30 May 2008
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The crusade to raise the Ukrainian language heads and shoulders above Russian continues apace in Kyiv and other parts of the country, but as with most crusades, it’s not clear what the end goal is. Ukraine’s State Cinema Service recently announced that all films made in Ukraine must be in Ukrainian starting in July. All foreign films shown in Ukraine are already required to be dubbed or subtitled in Ukrainian.
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UKRAINE: EARLY ELECTIONS OF THE KYIV MAYOR
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29 May 2008
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I would not exaggerate the importance of the Kyiv mayoral elections in terms of their influence on the political situation in the country as a whole. Though, of course, the elections were of great importance.
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GEORGIA AFTER THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
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29 May 2008
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There are several reasons behind the victory of the “United National Movement” in Georgia's parliamentary elections, which took place on May 21. One of them is that the ruling party has drawn the right conclusions from the January presidential election.
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DMITRY MEDVEDEV VISITS KAZAKHSTAN
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27 May 2008
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Medvedev’s visit to Kazakhstan was fruitful. Some said it would be a reconnaissance and ceremonial visit. But as a matter of fact, a lot of practical issues were addressed, certain agreements were reached.
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RESULTS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA
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23 May 2008
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There was a lot of electoral fraud in the parliamentary elections that took place in Georgia on May 21. Such elections do not favor the rapprochement between Georgia and NATO. At the NATO summit in Bucharest it was decided that all the Alliance members would observe the parliamentary elections in Georgia carefully.
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SITUATION IN ABKHAZIA
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22 May 2008
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What will Abkhazia do, if Georgia joins NATO? Abkhazia will do nothing. Let Georgia join NATO even tomorrow. We do not care about that.
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STUNG BY A VACCINATION
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22 May 2008
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Ukraine is a country that continues to integrate into the world community, receiving assistance from other countries along the way. The donors gain, for example, by making Ukraine a better trade partner or preventing an outbreak of an infectious disease among its population. But sometimes the international assistance is not met with open arms - or even outstretched ones with rolled up sleeves.
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“RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS CAN BECOME MUCH BETTER”
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21 May 2008
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Currently, there are several negative points in the Russian-Georgian relations. The first one is Georgia’s bid for the NATO membership, the second one is Tbilisi’s conflict with the breakaway territories – Abkhazia and South Ossetia. There are also the problems of the bilateral relations.
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RUSSIAN-AZERBAIJANI RELATIONS: NEW STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT
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19 May 2008
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"We should view the Russian-Azerbaijani relations in the context of shaping the Eurasian policy. It is Russia that plays a certain role in the formation of a new fair order in Eurasia", Rashad Rzaquliyev.
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WORST CASE SCENARIO
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19 May 2008
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Once I used to think that the Russian authorities possessed an exclusive talent to choose the worst solutions of all possible. I later realized that the decisions they had made were the best of all possible, while I simply couldn’t grasp the root of the matter. The point is that the Russian authorities are motivated not by the abstract ideas. They are governed by their own interests and those of the ruling class.
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“YULIYA TYMOSHENKO WANTS TO BE DISMISSED”
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16 May 2008
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It seems that Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko wants to be dismissed. She does not want to resign, she would like to be fired.
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LABOR CODE AS AN INSTRUMENT OF SOCIAL REVOLUTION
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15 May 2008
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Recently Russian mass media have focused on labor movement. For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union the Russian journalists are writing about strikes and workers’ protests on May 1, 2008. Strike movement has been on the rise in Russia during the last ten months. It was started by the workers of the transnational companies and was assumed by the employees of the Russian corporations.
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UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO VERSUS TYMOSHENKO
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14 May 2008
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The President Yushchenko’s wish to push through his version of the constitutional reform played a mean trick on him. The President and his team did not expect that Prime Minister Tymoshenko would offer such resistance. And Tymoshenko took the initiative.
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RESTING BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
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13 May 2008
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Over the holiday-filled weekend, Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov arrived in the history-filled city of Sevastopol to challenge the history and geopolitical relations of Ukraine and Russia. The official purpose of Mr. Luzhkov's visit was to take part in the celebration of the 225th anniversary of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which fell on Europe Day (May 11) and just after Victory Day (May 9).
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VISIT OF PRESIDENT OF UZBEKISTAN ISLOM KARIMOV TO KAZAKHSTAN
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06 May 2008
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On April 22-23, 2008 President of Uzbekistan Islom Karimov was on an official visit to Kazakhstan, which is of great importance to the development of the mutually beneficial cooperation of the two countries.
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RUSSIAN PREMIER VISITS KYIV: DID HE CALL AT A BAD TIME?
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06 May 2008
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Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov led a government delegation to Kyiv on April 25. It was only a one-day visit, and Zubkov is expected to be replaced sometime this month anyway, following the inauguration of the new Russian president.
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THE GLOBALIZATION OF MEDIA
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04 May 2008
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One of the trends we’ve seen in investment banking over the last two or three years is what PricewaterhouseCoopers calls the ‘global war for talent’. Local banks in rich emerging market countries have more money to spend than their troubled rivals on Wall Street, so they’re hiring the top talent from western banks to join them.
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TO STAY OR NOT TO STAY?
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30 April 2008
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The last two weeks Russia’s mass media have been chewing over the information about president Putin’s divorce and further inevitable marriage with the Olympic gymnast Alina Kabaeva. Strictly speaking the rumor is not new, it has been circulating for over six months. What was new is the unexpected and massive interest of the media to the old odd noise.
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THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
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25 April 2008
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Almost all significant political forces in Georgia, including the ruling party, say that there are sufficient reasons for making the compromises with Russia that would not infringe upon Georgia’s national interests.
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THE CORRUPTION TEST
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25 April 2008
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Not only are Ukraine's colleges and universities as corrupt as most other institutions, they serve as a breeding ground for successive generations of bribe takers, cheats and nepotists; so, why not teach Ukrainian youth right from the start the value of earning rather than buying one's success?
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IMPERFECT CONSTITUTION CAUSES ANOTHER POLITICAL CRISIS IN UKRAINE
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23 April 2008
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In 2004 it came as a compromise in a sense. But Constitution is not a document for compromise, for it is a state-forming document rather than a political one.
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VLADIMIR VORONIN AND IGOR SMIRNOV MEETING IN BENDERY: ARE THE PARTIES READY TO MAKE A COMPROMISE WITH EACH OTHER?
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22 April 2008
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On April 11, the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic’s city of Bendery hosted a meeting of Moldova’s President Vladimir Voronin and Transnistria’s leader Igor Smirnov.
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AN ECONOMY HELD HOSTAGE BY POLITICS
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18 April 2008
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It’s no secret that Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko have not enjoyed good relations for a long time. But ever since the two politicians found themselves neck and neck in the stretch for the presidency, their simmering mutual antipathy has flared up into open hostility.
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ISLAM’S COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION?
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16 April 2008
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I’ve started writing about Islamic finance as of a few months ago. It’s a fascinating, bizarre market, fusing as it does the world of ancient religious law with the world of international finance. And it’s an increasingly important market, because the Middle East is suddenly where all the capital is, so companies, banks, funds and even governments are scrambling for their Koran to work out how to attract this capital.
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THE PRESIDENT OF KYIV
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14 April 2008
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On May 25, around two million voters in Kyiv will elect a new mayor. It will be an early election, as was the case with the last parliamentary poll in September. But more importantly for the business clans and political blocs taking part, the two month race to control the Ukrainian capital, which started on March 26, will be a dress rehearsal for the presidential elections scheduled for late next year.
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THREE LITTLE PIGS FROM THE ECONOMY AND FINANCE MINISTRIES
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11 April 2008
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In January the Russian government’s liberals were enjoying their holidays and the last year’s summary reports – they didn’t see anything to worry about. In February they kept on denying any possibility of the world economic crisis, making allowance for slight drop in market rates. In March they finally avowed the existence of the world crisis.
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN ARMENIA AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
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09 April 2008
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Ter-Petrossian has been keeping silence for about two weeks. I believe that after the inauguration he will make a statement. He is likely to say that he will continue to carry on political struggle without recognizing the election returns.
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DOES NATO ENLARGEMENT POSE A THREAT TO RUSSIA?
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07 April 2008
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"Why do the Central and Eastern European countries seek to join NATO? For many of them it is a way to join the EU. Many countries took this as institutionalization of independence from Moscow. For many countries it was a way to return to Europe," Tatyana Parkhalina.
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UKRAINE'S NATO BID - IT'S NOT OVER YET
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07 April 2008
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NATO leaders arrived for their summit in Bucharest last week in an atmosphere of uncertainty bordering on mistrust. Outgoing US president George Bush continued to push for the inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance, while European heavyweights Germany and France voiced the opposition of older member states to further eastern expansion.
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NATO, THE CIS AND RUSSIA AFTER BUCHAREST
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02 April 2008
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In advance of NATO’s Bucharest summit Russia has decided to employ the traditional Soviet tactics of intimidation and blackmail to block NATO’s enlargement.
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NATO-RUSSIA BREAK: A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY
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01 April 2008
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The Bucharest NATO summit offers a significant possibility that NATO’s and Russia’s positions on a variety of issues will further diverge, marking the beginning of the end of this uneven relationship.
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VISIT OF THE U.S. PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH TO UKRAINE
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01 April 2008
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"The purpose of the visit is to enlist the Ukrainian diaspora’s support in the U.S. presidential election. The diaspora is quite numerous and has always backed the Republicans. But recently the Republicans have become less popular with the American Ukrainians," Dmitry Vydrin.
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TAKING OFF THE GLOVES
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31 March 2008
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The presidential campaign in America is still a three-way race between Obama, Clinton and McCain. But in Ukraine, where the elections are still two years off, it’s everyone against Yulia Tymoshenko. Appearing before a government meeting on Wednesday, March 26, the fiery female politician said her opponents had already begun attempts to undermine the fragile pro-Western majority in parliament.
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100 DAYS FOR TYMOSHENKO’S CABINET
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28 March 2008
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“100 days” implies carte blanche for any government. A government can do almost whatever they like within that period: reshuffle the Cabinet, put forward reforms or pursue their own economic policy. In other words, a government is given a free hand.
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WHY FASCISM WON’T PASS
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28 March 2008
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The murder of an anti-fascist activist Aleksey Krylov has made a stir in Moscow and hopefully will reverberate all over the country. The public has endured assaults of the Nazis on Kyrgyz and Tajik nationals or the Black. This time it is another case – in the center of Moscow they killed an ethnic Russian.
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KYRGYZSTAN AND RUSSIA: SECURITY, COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES IN THE CENTRAL ASIAN REGION
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26 March 2008
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Central Asia is a geographic, rather than a geopolitical entity, which is characterized by the absence of any political or economic uniformity. There are serious political, economic and other differences among the states in the region, which are exacerbated by the border, territorial and resources claims. All of these impede political and military integration.
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THE RE-ELECTION ELECTION CAMPAIGN
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24 March 2008
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On March 26, the campaign for early mayoral elections kicks off in Kyiv. Current mayor Leonid Chernovetsky was elected to office exactly two years to the day in 2006, but his political opponents believe that he's already overstayed his welcome. So on March 18 they put together a parliamentary majority to approve early elections for May 25.
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REASONS BEHIND THE DISMISSAL OF THE MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT
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24 March 2008
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In my opinion, the dismissal of Vasile Tarlev’s cabinet has nothing to do with the foreign policy and the attempt to improve the relations with the unrecognized republic of Transnistria.
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THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTIONS TO THE IRANIAN MAJLES: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION IN THE REGION
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21 March 2008
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The Iranian Parliament plays one of the key roles in the government power system. It is significant that in those elections the turnout was high – over 60%, which is by 10% higher than in 2004.
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VISIT OF MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI TO THE USA
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20 March 2008
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The main purpose of the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's visit to the USA is to enlist the support for Georgia’s joining NATO Action Plan that will be on the agenda of the April NATO summit in Bucharest.
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WILL THE POST-SOVIET BREAKAWAY REGIONS BE RECOGNIZED?
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19 March 2008
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"If to look at a map, one can realize that in the event of the conflict in Abkhazia the Georgian party is doomed to defeat, as has happened before. This is why Abkhazia has a very good chance of becoming independent," Sergei Arutyunov.
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THE GONGADZE TRIAL: A LOT TOO LITTLE, A LOT TOO LATE
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17 March 2008
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Modern Ukrainian politics were born of the country's 2004 Orange Revolution, in which Western-reformer Viktor Yushchenko defeated the fraud-filled presidential bid of Moscow's favorite, Viktor Yanukovych. But the revolution was conceived in 2000 with the grisly murder of thirty-one-year-old journalist Georgiy Gongadze.
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RUSSIA AND THE CAUCASUS KNOT: PROSPECTS FOR A SOVEREIGNTY PARADE
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17 March 2008
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"After the recognition of Kosovo, South Ossetia’s position remains unchanged. When asked about our attitude to that precedent we have always answered that it is South Ossetia that can be a de jure precedent for Kosovo, not vice versa," Dmitry Medoev.
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EURASIA RISING: DEMOCRACY AND INDEPENDENCE IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE
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14 March 2008
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Eurasian Home website with a kind permission of the Greenwood Publishing Group Inc., publishes the first chapter "Sovereignity from Within" of the book "Eurasia Rising: Democracy and Independence in the Post-Soviet Space" by the Eurasian Home website contributor Georgeta Pourchot.
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WHO CARES FOR A FOREIGNER’S DEATH?
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13 March 2008
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10 Kyrgyzstani citizens have been killed in Moscow and St. Petersburg since the beginning of 2008. All of them were killed without obvious reasons – in the street unknown people sneaked up to a person from behind, stabbed him or her with a knife and ran away.
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CHINA - A THIRD WAY BETWEEN COMMUNISM AND CAPITALISM
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13 March 2008
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China is endeavoring to finds a historical self, to discover a uniquely Chinese model and ideology of socialism. In order to understand the paradigm they seek to create it is necessary to compare them to Lenin’s New Economic Policy of 1921.
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MAD AS A MARCH ELECTION
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12 March 2008
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Did the presidential election in Russia reveal anything about the country? Well in some way… Valentina Matviyenko, governor of Saint Petersburg, revealed her feminine clairvoyance – her first revelation after the election results had been made public was that she had had an intuitive awareness of who would become Russia’s new President. What a surprise!
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THE UKRAINIAN WOMAN
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07 March 2008
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On March 8, Ukraine celebrates International Women’s Day. Days before the official holiday are marked in the capital Kyiv, one can see men rushing to and from with bouquets of flowers bought from the ubiquitous street vendor. Although March 8 is a day off for all Ukrainians, men are under obligation to spoil their wives, mothers, sisters, coworkers and lovers by all means.
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UKRAINE: A CONFLICT BETWEEN PRESIDENT YUSHCHENKO AND PRIME MINISTER TYMOSHENKO
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06 March 2008
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As regards the conflict between the President and the Prime Minister, they compete with each other for almost everything. Virtually all of important decisions or steps taken by the Cabinet evoked a reaction from the President’s Secretariat.
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“GAS” RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO AND YULIYA TYMOSHENKO’S CONFRONTATION
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03 March 2008
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It seems that the Russian authorities make it clear that as long as Tymoshenko is Prime Minister, Russia doesn’t want to be Ukraine’s partner.
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GRAIN, GAS AND INDEPENDENCE
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29 February 2008
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has made international recognition of the Holodomor his personal crusade. Good for him. The famine of 1932-1933 claimed some six to eight million Ukrainian lives - as much as a quarter of the population - and it wasn’t a natural catastrophe. Yushchenko wants the Holodomor recognized as genocide, thus putting Ukraine’s tragedy on the same level as the Jewish Holocaust.
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DMITRY MEDVEDEV: RUSSIA'S NEW KENNEDY?
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28 February 2008
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While the whole world is watching the development of the American presidential race, the Russian president elections seem to be simple: the Kremlin’s candidate Dmitry Medvedev is supposed to win it.
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SLEIGHT OF MOUTH
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27 February 2008
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Aliaksandr Lukashenka has declared that in the nearest future he will devote his time to combating the “Iron Curtain”. By the ‘curtain’ he means the isolation regime which has been established by the unfriendly states around Belarus. One can interpret the Belarusian President’s statement in two ways. It is either he yet again decided to make it hot for the screen and jalousie lovers or he wishes to “remake” his own enclosure.
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CIS INFORMAL SUMMIT
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26 February 2008
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All the CIS leaders arrived in Moscow on Friday to participate in the informal summit. This indicates their respect for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin who steps down in spring. Unlike ex-President Boris Yeltsin, Putin did his best to create the working atmosphere within the CIS. Much was done in the sphere of the economic integration.
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THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME
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22 February 2008
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Just into his fourth year as president of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko is beginning to act a lot like the man he replaced during the country's Orange Revolution. Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma is often remembered for waffling on Western integration, crushing freedom of speech and overseeing a state apparatus steeped in corruption.
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AFTER THE ELECTION POLITICAL SITUATION IN ARMENIA IS STILL UNCLEAR
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22 February 2008
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According to the preliminary data, current Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan won the 19 February presidential election in Armenia with 52.8 percent. |
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES IN THE UNITED STATES
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20 February 2008
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"When this campaign got started it was a perfect opportunity for new people to come in with new ideas and to try to come up with a formula, pattern, a way of behaving responsive to the new times", Marvin Kalb.
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OH, THE TRANSHUMANITY!
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20 February 2008
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The best way to understand the present is to read science fiction. Only sci-fi writers are dreaming far enough into the future to tell us where we are in the present. This week, the news read like science fiction. In South Korea, a company called RNL Bio received the first-ever commercial order for cloning. An American woman paid the company $50,000 to clone her dead pit-bull terrier, Booger.
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LABOR MOVEMENT AND CIVIL SOCIETY
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19 February 2008
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The confrontation between employees and administration of the “Ford” plant in Vsevolozhsk ended in compromise. The salary was raised by 16-20% depending on the category of employee, rather than by one third, as the trade union demanded. Using the boxing terminology, one may say that for strikers it was the “victory on points”.
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A SLAP IN THE FACE TO JUSTICE
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15 February 2008
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Ukraine has been an independent and sovereign nation for over 16 years, its last two elections were called the fairest ever, and earlier this month it was invited to join the World Trade Organization. So when the country’s interior minister decides to strike the mayor of the capital city, some eyebrows are going to be raised.
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN ARMENIA: HOW THE COUNTRY WILL DEVELOP
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15 February 2008
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A fierce struggle has been waged, which becomes apparent in the street election campaigning and the press. In Armenia there are more than 300 foreign observers alone, with only about 1900 polling stations.
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NEW PROPOSALS OF THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT IN THE ENERGY SECTOR: ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ASPECTS
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12 February 2008
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"There is a need to get rid of the mediator RosUkrEnergo, and then to increase the tariff of the Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Third point is the presentation of the White Flow gas pipeline project," Volodymyr Saprykin.
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UKRAINE IS ABOUT TO JOIN THE WTO
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11 February 2008
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The ruling elites consider Ukraine’s joining the WTO to be an important step and a serious foreign-policy victory. The point is that Ukraine is the first of the strong post-Soviet economies that managed to join the WTO, although the process was not trouble-free. As to such WTO members as Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Georgia, their economies are insignificant and, above all, they have not pretended to play an important role in the WTO.
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DON'T TOUCH THAT GAS
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08 February 2008
|
Once again, Russia has resorted to threats and bullying in an ongoing effort to keep Ukraine subservient. And once again, its weapon of choice is gas. Most colonial divorces have been characterized by the colony cutting off the colonizer from its supply of natural resources. But with Russia, the situation is exactly the opposite - at least that's the way it seems on the surface.
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WHAT WOULD A MCCAIN PRESIDENCY MEAN FOR RUSSIA?
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07 February 2008
|
President Putin must be watching the US presidential elections with some mild concern. Because the person who is emerging as the favourite for the US presidency – John McCain – is also one of Putin’s most outspoken critics among the US political elite.
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UKRAINE SIGNED THE PROTOCOL ON JOINING THE WTO
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06 February 2008
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No large-scale information campaign on Ukraine’s joining the WTO was conducted in the country. Therefore, the Ukrainians do not understand very well what is in store for them and which advantages and disadvantages for Ukraine the entry conceals.
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THE DAY OF PROTEST
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05 February 2008
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I was skeptic about the last year’s decision of the International Committee of the World Social Forum (WSF) to hold a worldwide day of protest on January 26. And I was not the only one – my colleague from Latin America commented that “it will be too cold in Russia, and in Brazil there will be a carnival”.
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GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN TAJIKISTAN
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04 February 2008
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In spite of the apparent unity of the Tajik elite and integrity of authorities, the elites and President Emomali Rahmon were at variance.
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THE SMELL OF GAS IN UKRAINE
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31 January 2008
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Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s long running efforts to break the stranglehold on her country’s gas supplies are beginning to pay off – due to assistance from an unlikely ally. Russia, which has been widely accused of using gas sales to put geopolitical pressure on Ukraine and other Western neighbors, now appears to be cleaning up its act.
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FURTHER PRIVAITZATION IN UKRAINE: POLITICAL ASPECTS
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29 January 2008
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In Ukraine it is the political aspects that often play a decisive role. After 16 years of independence and 7 years of sustainable economic growth not only fundamental tasks of the reforms are far from being achieved, but the global development trend is far from being clear.
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ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF IN ARMENIA
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28 January 2008
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In the course of the presidential election campaign, which has been officially launched in Armenia, the major struggle will unfold between Serzh Sargsyan, Prime Minister, and Levon Ter-Petrossian, the first President of Armenia.
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THERE’S SOMETHING ROTTEN IN UKRAINE’S PROSECUTOR-GENERAL’S OFFICE
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25 January 2008
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The Orange Revolution gave Ukraine a new, pro-Western president - if not always an Orange prime minister. But the Prosecutor-General's Office, which decides who gets put in jail, has remained steadily in the hands of Yanukovych's Blue, Donetsk clan since the days of President Leonid Kuchma. Why this is so remains a matter of speculation.
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WILL THE VECTOR OF RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS CHANGE?
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24 January 2008
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It is unlikely that after the election President Mikheil Saakashvili has changed his position on Georgian-Russian relations. For the time being, the statements about his wish to normalize those relations cannot be taken seriously.
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IT’S IN THE FSB’S INTEREST, BUT NOT RUSSIA’S, TO TURN THE UK INTO A ‘THREAT’
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22 January 2008
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The British Council has finally bowed to the inevitable and suspended its operations in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg. I don’t see why it tried to continue operations when the government had made it clear it wasn’t welcome – you can’t operate in a country unless the government wants you there.
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EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY: NEW PHASE OF INTEGRATION
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21 January 2008
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Today the Eurasian Economic Community is an incontestable leader among the regional integration groups in the post-Soviet space. Its member states pursue economic integration as the primary goal in their relations.
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NATO SUPPORTERS GO ON THE OFFENSIVE
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21 January 2008
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The issue of whether Ukraine should join NATO has returned to the public agenda, sparking off heated debates between supporters and opponents of the country’s bid. In the past, such polemics have usually meant proponents of Euro-Atlantic unity coming under attack by pro-Russian factions in the run up to an important election or a NATO-sponsored military exercise on home soil.
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WHAT’S ON THE AGENDA FOR 2008?
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18 January 2008
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Welcome to 2008! This year we are to get a new president, further pension and housing and public utilities reforms in Russia; new administration in the USA... Perish the thought, but apart from that we might also get world economic crisis. Really, perish this thought, because forecasting economic recession is not an easy task.
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TYMOSHENKO’S GOVERNMENT AND THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS
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17 January 2008
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Tymoshenko’s seeking to remove the RosUkrEnergo company from the the chain of the gas supplies and transit should be considered as an element of her presidential campaign. "Gas relations" with Russia became one of her weak points during her first premiership.
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A HAND FULL OF GAS
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11 January 2008
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It’s a new year, and Ukraine has a new government headed by a fiery reformer with a penchant for making high-stake gambles. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is known as the gas queen – more for how she earned her money back in the 1990’s than for how she has tried to clean up her country’s gas sector in more recent years. But clean it up she has tried, against highly formidable of opponents at home and abroad.
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THE PRESIDENTIAL POLLS TOOK PLACE IN GEORGIA
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10 January 2008
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The Georgian opposition believes that Mikheil Saakashvili is not a legitimate President. Those polls were rigged everywhere. In the large regional centers Saakashvili took less than 50 percent of the vote.
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THE PRESIDENT’S BLUNDER
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29 December 2007
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And so we are told that the Russian President Vladimir Putin stays in power. But if he becomes Prime Minister, what will Dmitry Medvedev do? Will he indeed become President?! Such reshuffles normally end in political instability and social woes. I can only hope that the both don’t mean what they’ve claimed.
The Putin-Medvedev tandem is not a bad strategic alliance in terms of the forthcoming presidential election.
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UKRAINE'S FOOTBALL POLITICS
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28 December 2007
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The only thing that causes Ukrainians to passionately take sides, cry foul and then throw up their hands in disappointment more than their football is their politics. More than just a game, politics the Ukrainian way is about unquestioning loyalty to one’s team to the point of bending every rule in the book for the sake of a victory chock-full of financial incentives.
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AS EXPECTED, UZBEKISTAN’S KARIMOV WON RE-ELECTION
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25 December 2007
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As long as Karimov keeps his iron fist upon political system and government, he is most likely to stay in power. However, nobody knows for how long he will stay healthy and strong enough (physically and politically) to control Uzbekistan and his own team. He clearly needs to prepare succession scenarios.
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FOR HOW LONG WILL THEY HIDE THE CAT IN A BAG?
|
24 December 2007
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Mikheil Saakashvili who is seeking re-election to the second term in office as President of Georgia must be very lucky. The resolution of the issue concerning recognition of Kosovo’s independence by the West, which was due on December 10, has been postponed, even if not for long.
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THE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION RESULTS AND THE KYRGYZ PARTY SYSTEM
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20 December 2007
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The parliamentary election was quite a useful experience for many Kyrgyz parties as practical rather than developmental elaboration of their future actions. Kyrgyzstan is undergoing the process of building real political parties. How it will go now depends solely on the parties’ own choice.
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YULIYA TYMOSHENKO IS UKRAINE’S NEW PRIME MINISTER
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19 December 2007
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The election of Yuliya Tymoshenko as Ukraine’s Prime Minister is the evidence of the fact that parliamentary-electoral mechanism of government formation is being created in Ukraine.
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MAKE WAY FOR THE LADY IN BRAIDS
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19 December 2007
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Yulia Tymoshenko was approved as Ukrainian prime minister on December 18. This marks the beginning of Ms. Yulia's second stint as head of government. She was nominated both times by pro-Western president Viktor Yushchenko, whom she helped rise to power during the country's 2004 Orange Revolution, and then hold on to authority during this year's power struggle.
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THE VOTE IS OVER, FORGET ABOUT IT!
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17 December 2007
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The Central Election Commission has counted the vote returns – the parties that were meant to make it into the State Duma are already there occupying their places. Accuracy of the forecast given before the election by the Kremlin-friendly experts, keeps one guessing if the whole costly procedure was aimed at implementing into life a cooked-up scheme.
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TV COMPANY “IMEDI” RESUMES ITS BROADCASTING IN GEORGIA
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13 December 2007
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The Georgian government continues to put serious pressure on the journalists, editors and producers of the “IMEDI” company. Officials are using all the ways, for example, blackmailing and intimidating of the people including their relatives and families.
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WILL YULIYA TYMOSHENKO BECOME UKRAINE'S PRIME MINISTER?
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12 December 2007
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From now on Tymoshenko’s appointment as Premier is a matter of principle. I believe that the democratic coalition is sure to have her appointed as Ukraine’s Prime Minister.
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RUSSIA’S DIASPORA CAPITAL: KEY ACTORS AND CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATION
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10 December 2007
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So far the Russian diaspora has been gaining financial support via social organizations, in the circumstances of lack of transparency in distributing the resources, which impeded the creation of a resource base and caused a cohort of “compatriots by profession” to appear.
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IS THE “BEACON OF LIBERTY” DYING OUT?
|
06 December 2007
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The “Beacon of Liberty”, that, to believe U.S. President George Bush, Georgia embodied in May 2005, when he made a visit to the country, is dying out, even though the West does not want to believe that and continues to give Saakashvili and his government a helping hand.
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GYMS – THE NEW CHURCHES
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06 December 2007
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I joined a gym last week. This is a key step whenever you move to a new city or country: finding your gym. Nowhere is it taken more seriously than in Moscow, where whole evenings are spent discussing which gym you go to, how much it costs, how big its pool is, how many running machines it has, and so on. I don’t think it’s taken quite as seriously in the UK – we are still a nation of over-weight couch potatoes.
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PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA
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03 December 2007
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As long as Mikheil Saakashvili stays in power, Georgia will be a superpresidential republic. So, it is necessary to elect a new President who would abolish this vicious system. But there are other questions. Which kind of a republic do we need? What powers should the President have? Who will elect him?
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PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN GEORGIA
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03 December 2007
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If to take into account the control of the mass media by the propresidential United National Movement and the authorities’ monopoly on the financial and administrative resources, Saakashvili’s position is more advantageous than that of his rivals.
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THE LAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE ELECTIONS
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30 November 2007
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The trick is, whatever you do, it won’t affect Russia’s present political system. It reminds me of a machine to play coin flipping thought out by a Polish philosopher Jan Kott. The machine counts your answers and always wins. The only way for a human being to make the chances equal is to give random answers. Still, you can only end in a draw.
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THE "ORANGE" COALITION BUILDING
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29 November 2007
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The fact that building the Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense and Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc coalition has taken almost two months after the early parliamentary elections indicates difficulties on both sides.
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KILLING UKRAINE SOFTLY
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29 November 2007
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There is more than one way for a state leader to abuse his power, and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is practicing the 'softest' way of all. You can't call him a dictator who imposes his will on his people, as it's not clear what Mr. Yushchenko's will is - beyond the fact that he wants to stay in power, as do all state leaders.
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NEW PERSONELL FOR THE NEW ECONOMY: KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPERIENCE
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28 November 2007
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Studying in Western universities is the main target for many Kazakh students. For them learning English is not an end in itself, but a means to become part of the Western community. Those failing to learn English, will study in Russia.
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ROUTES FOR THE AZERBAIJANI GAS EXPORT TO EUROPE
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26 November 2007
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On November 17, the gas pipeline connecting the Turkish and Greek gas networks was officially inaugurated in the Turkish city of Ipsala. This gas pipeline is significant because it provides an alternative to Russia's gas pipeline system.
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GEORGIA'S UNITED OPPOSITION AGAINST MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI
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23 November 2007
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When I become President, Georgia will continue to be West- and NATO-oriented. I think it is the only way for a democratic country. I am also going to give great attention to the development of good-neighborly relations with Russia.
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UKRAINE'S BROKEN RECORDS
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23 November 2007
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Ukraine has broken another record for disasters - a record it set itself for itself. On November 18, at three o'clock in the morning, a methane blast rocked a coal mine in eastern, Donetsk Region, claiming the lives of at least 89 miners. Prior to the tragedy, a mine in neighboring Luhansk Region had been the site of the country's worst coal industry disaster.
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THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTION. ON RENEWAL OF UKRAINE'S POLITICAL REGIME
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22 November 2007
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By way of overcoming the current political crisis Ukrainian society is developing the basics of democracy, though not in a very elegant or ethical manner. But there is no other way of learning freedom and democracy but to practise them.
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UKRAINE: LONG PROCESS OF COALITION BUILDING
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22 November 2007
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Viktor Yushchenko profits from the procrastination of the coalition formation. As the coalition is not formed, Viktor Yanukovych's government becomes semi-legitimate. The President is the only authority.
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GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLES IN GEORGIA
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20 November 2007
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There is no alternative to the incumbent president Mikheil Saakashvili in the forthcoming presidential polls in Georgia. Like it or not, he stands to win the forthcoming elections. The opposition cannot compete with Saakashvili.
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90TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE OCTOBER REVOLUTION
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19 November 2007
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A left-winger, I am supposed to venerate the day of the Russian Bolshevik Revolution. But no, I have never felt like celebrating on November 7. And yes, despite all the atrocities and blunders and the totalitarian outcome of the October Revolution, the Russian people have all the reasons to commemorate the storming of the Winter Palace.
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GEORGIA TO HOLD EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
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15 November 2007
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The Georgian people do not want destabilization of the situation. So, channeling political activity into election campaign would stabilize the situation. In short, the force that swings the presidential polls, will make it into the Parliament.
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OPPOSITION RALLIES IN GEORGIA
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15 November 2007
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The collective distaste for Saakashvili has brought a wide segment of the society together and people have closed ranks for common objectives – free elections, rule of law, a system where the power of one person can be held in check.
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A QUESTION OF NATIONAL PRIDE
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15 November 2007
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Reports of racism and anti-Semitism in Ukraine climbed to prominence in the nation’s media last month. Whether this had anything to do with the October 14 commemoration of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) is a matter of speculation. On that day, a few people exhibiting Nazi symbols took part in a parade otherwise composed of Ukrainian nationalists.
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NEW BIG GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA
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14 November 2007
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At present the West has better attitude towards Turkmenistan than it did under former President Saparmurat Niyazov, although since he died, the regime has hardly changed. This shows once more that oil and gas are more important than democracy.
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THE LAST TRIUMPH OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY
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08 November 2007
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Since no puppet opposition has been created, the bureaucrats will work with CPRF. With Communists as the only opposition force, the new Russian Duma will be an apolitical institution without ideology. This invalid apolitical body will lay basis of the new parliamentary system in Russia…a system with minimum political substance. Well, this time form will prevail over substance.
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GEORGIAN UNITED OPPOSITION VERSUS SAAKASHVILI
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07 November 2007
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Now the Georgian opposition needs a leader who can be an alternative to the current President. I doubt that the opposition’s sponsor Badri Patarkatsishvili can become such an alternative leader. Okruashvili is a more attractive political figure.
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UKRAINE'S ‘HUNGER’ FOR HISTORICAL JUSTICE
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07 November 2007
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There's nothing like a national tragedy to build a nation, especially if the details of the tragedy are buried in history, and the blame for it can be put on a regional bully. Ukraine's Holodomor is such a tragedy. Yes, at least three million hapless Ukrainians died of hunger, disease and privation in 1932-1933, and No, they shouldn't be forgotten - by anyone.
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THE UK’S AWKWARD RELATIONSHIP WITH SAUDI ARABIA
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31 October 2007
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This week, the Saudi royal family is in London on its first state visit for 20 years. A state visit by the Saudi royal family is no small thing – this is a big family. Indeed, King Abdullah flew no less than five private jets to the UK, carrying over 100 advisors, ambassadors, economists, chefs, barbers, and some of his 30 wives. He has rented out most of the Dorchester Hotel for his retinue.
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LIES, DAMN LIES AND UKRAINE'S WTO BID
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30 October 2007
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The motivation of Ukrainian businessmen with influence if not seats in parliament to keep out foreign competition should not be underestimated. One need only do a quick cost comparison of what consumers are forced to pay in the Ukrainian capital for food, clothing, mobile communications, etc. in order to guess what kind of profits are at risk from a freer market.
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BLOODY CONFLICT IN ANDIJAN: 12-13 MAY, 2005
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29 October 2007
|
In the light of Tashkent's reticence and reluctance to disclose its information on the events in Andijan, independent assessments has taken on added value.
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REFERENDUM RESULTS IN KYRGYZSTAN
|
25 October 2007
|
According to the Central Election Committee, 2.4 million people (76 percent of voters) supported the new Constitution and the Election Code. The turnout was 80.64 percent (to believe the Central Election Committee). A number of NGOs report that the turnout was much lower – about 30-40 percent of voters.
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THE VOTES AFTER THE VOTE
|
22 October 2007
|
Ukraine held general elections on September 30, but power sharing in the country remains to be decided in subsequent voting devoid of public participation and full of backroom intrigue. For a second time in a row, Ukraine has pulled off an internationally accepted demonstration of the people's will, with rank and file citizens putting an end to a crippling stand off between their two highest executive leaders.
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“EUROPEAN MARCH” TOOK PLACE IN BELARUS
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19 October 2007
|
Now there is nothing else left for the Belarusian opposition to do, but to organize the street processions. This form of political action is quite futile because it does not add electorate to the opposition.
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ODD QUESTIONS
|
19 October 2007
|
The American society wants changes and is afraid of changes. Americans want the politicians to rise to a challenge. The Russian society is also afraid of changes, but doesn’t want to change at all. Russians don’t demand their politicians to do anything about it – people are afraid of the authorities’ reaction.
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FORMATION OF THE “ORANGE” COALITION IN UKRAINE
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17 October 2007
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In terms of tactics, the "orange" coalition formatoin is ByuT’s victory. But as head of state, Viktor Yushchenko is a winner, too, because he can strengthen his power through the change of the Law on Cabinet and the constitutional reform.
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CBT AND ITS CRITICS
|
16 October 2007
|
Last week, the UK government launched the biggest state-funded mental health initiative ever. It pledged £170 million to create “a ground-breaking therapy service in Britain”, according to health minister Alan Johnson. The service will include 3,500 new therapists, who will have to be found and trained by 2011, if targets are to be met.
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IS GEORGIA ON THE BRINK OF A NEW CIVIL CONFRONTATION?
|
16 October 2007
|
Barely had the Saakashvili’s team got rid of Okruashvili, when a much stronger opponent, oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili, who is expected to become leader of the united opposition, came up as a new opponent to Saakashvili.
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A GLIMMER OF HOPE IN THE RUBBLE
|
15 October 2007
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On Saturday morning, a gas explosion rocked a block of flats in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Region, claiming at least 13 lives as of Sunday evening. Many more were injured or left homeless, while rescuers continue to search the rubble for survivors. Ukrainian political leaders responded immediately with the usual public promises to punish the guilty and help the victims.
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FRENCH-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
|
12 October 2007
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The economic interests prompt Nicolas Sarkozy to get to the Russian market. The French big business and, first and foremost, state corporations urge the President to do so.
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OPPOSITION MARCHES IN GEORGIA
|
08 October 2007
|
Irakli Okruashvili was afraid of being arrested and decided to pursue a preemptive tactic making accusations against Mikheil Saakashvili. We do not know which of his accusations are true and which are false.
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THE OKRUASHVILI FACTOR
|
08 October 2007
|
Irakli Okruashvili may use his arrest as the political dividend that he lacked until recently. Now he is unlikely to be reproached for the implicit connections with the authorities, as it was often done in recent times.
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WHAT COUNTS IN UKRAINE AFTER THE VOTE
|
08 October 2007
|
With parties heir to Ukraine's Orange Revolution perched to retake full control of the country’s executive, Orange president Viktor Yushchenko is again demonstrating the kind of dubious indecision that cost them the government in the first place. His one-time revolutionary sidekick, opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, was the real winner in the September 30 snap elections, earning enough votes to come back as premier.
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THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RETURNS IN UKRAINE
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05 October 2007
|
Under Yuliya Tymoshenko, a kind of the Francoist regime could be formed in Ukraine. It could have positive and negative sides.
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ARE YOU HIM?
|
05 October 2007
|
Don’t you fancy that the new Cabinet will bring about new policy. What can be revised is the status quo in the Russian high-rank bureaucracy. In the days of Fradkov’s premiership the Cabinet fell far from the ideal of a close-knit team or top-down management system. Each ministry had its own priorities and goals, with Premier Fradkov being only a coordinator.
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS
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02 October 2007
|
The parliamentary elections results can be boiled down to three points: Viktor Yushchenko’s victory, Yuliya Tymoshenko’s double victory and Viktor Yanukovych’s defeat. Viktor Yushchenko is the winner because he had initiated the early elections and they took place. The “orange” forces stand a good chance of returning to power.
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS
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01 October 2007
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Yuliya Tymoshenko managed to personify Lesya Ukrainka as well as Evita Peron. So, she deserved her victory. She created a failsafe image that could only be outmatched, but everybody failed to do it.
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TYMOSHENKO HIGH ON HER HEELS AFTER PARLIAMENTARY POLL
|
01 October 2007
|
The queen of Ukrainian politics, opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, was the unofficial victor in Ukraine’s snap elections on Sunday, with exit polls indicating she will head the next government. But Tymoshenko’s ascension to power will be anything but a sexy saunter, as her enemies are unlikely to allow themselves to be sidelined by a pretty populist.
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TO WEAKEN PRIME MINISTER. RESHUFFLES IN THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT
|
30 September 2007
|
All the September 24 appointments were aimed at weakening the Prime Minister’s position and diluting his powers to a considerable degree.
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ON SEPTEMBER 30 UKRAINE ELECTS A NEW PARLIAMENT
|
28 September 2007
|
On the eve of the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, balance of political forces is about the same as it was when the campaign started. This makes it possible to say that the majority may be formed by the two groups of political forces.
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ABRAMOVICH VERSUS CHELSEA FC
|
28 September 2007
|
Here in the UK, yet another Anglo-Russian controversy has broken out, this one perhaps even bigger than the Litvinenko saga. What could be bigger than a political assassination in the heart of London? Football, of course. The controversy that is filling the pages of British newspapers concerns the abrupt departure of the manager of Chelsea Football Club, Jose Mourinho, from the club this month.
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION TO THE VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE
|
26 September 2007
|
The returns of forthcoming parliamentary election in Ukraine will surprise its participants. Firstly, it concerns the Party of Regions. Any efforts to mobilize the voters by accusing the rivals were inefficient. This tactic proved to be counterproductive.
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LIKE A CRIME STORY
|
25 September 2007
|
Under the circumstances, telling stories about five mysterious candidates and keeping the nation and the bureaucrats themselves in the dark is irresponsible and testifies the Kremlin’s inability to control the situation. From the political point of view the situation is critical.
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UKRAINIAN POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE RUN UP TO THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
|
24 September 2007
|
Most probably, the coalition formation will come to be “a marriage of convenience”. The most unlikely scenario is Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions coalition.
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THE LIFE OF YUSHCHENKO
|
24 September 2007
|
There was a time when educated Ukrainians didn't read the latest bestseller translated from English, or Dostoyevsky (pardon - Taras Shevchenko). During the middle ages, the literate were versed in what are called the Lives of Saints. The typical plot of these religious works is the struggle of a God-fearing Christian against heathens, nature or sinners. Times and tastes have changed, of course.
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UZBEKISTAN HAS FIXED THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DATE
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21 September 2007
|
Islom Karimov will nominate himself again and be reelected for the next term. Most probably, the President will choose his competitor and will cede him as many votes as he will find appropriate.
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KAZAKHSTAN’S POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA BECOMES MORE INTENSE
|
17 September 2007
|
Central Asia becomes of more and more importance to Kazakhstan’s foreign policy. There are some objective reasons for that. In many respects, Kazakhstan is the region’s leader and seeks to keep this status by stepping up political and, above all, economic cooperation with its neighbors.
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EU-UKRAINIAN CACOPHONY
|
17 September 2007
|
When EU leaders visited Kyiv on September 14 for the annual Ukraine-EU Summit, they didn't say a lot that was new. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, their host, also stuck to his usual, pro-Western rhetoric. Nevertheless, taking place just two weeks before Ukraine's fateful, early parliamentary elections, the summit served as a nice sounding board.
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THE MITROFANOV ARGUMENT
|
12 September 2007
|
Why would the State Duma deputy Aleksey Mitrofanov change sides leaving Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) for Sergey Mironov’s “Fair Russia”? Given Mitrofanov’s public image that can only deter voters, it is very doubtful that “Fair Russia” will manage to capitalize on this acquisition. Mitrofanov was fine as Zhirinovsky’s right hand warming up the public every time before the great clown took the lead himself.
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KAZAKHSTAN’S ENERGY POLICY
|
10 September 2007
|
Kazakhstan does not set its oil and gas policy alone. In this respect its independence is very relative. Astana believes that it is necessary to take account of the interests of consumers and transit countries.
|
TELL 'EM SOMETHING THEY DON'T KNOW
|
10 September 2007
|
If Ukraine wants to maintain its dynamic economic growth, it's going to have to cut red tape and bring down barriers to competition, according to a report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD). The report marks the first-ever assessment of Ukraine by the OECD, a largely Western organization dedicated to free markets and representative democracy.
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NOT TO LOSE CENTRAL ASIA
|
07 September 2007
|
The Central Asian states are becoming agents of world politics and can act pursuant to their own interests. Russia can be one of the parties solving the region’s problems. Our proposals must be diverse and competitive. If we lose the competition, Russia will have to conform to the other actors’ rules.
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SPECIAL SESSION OF THE VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE
|
05 September 2007
|
On September 4, the Socialist Party of Ukraine, the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine took part in the special session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, called by Speaker and leader of the Socialist Party of Ukraine, Oleksandr Moroz.
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PHILOSOPHIZING
|
05 September 2007
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The best way to think of philosophy is not as a noun, but as a present participle: philosophizing. There is no such thing as philosophy, there is only philosophizing. Philosophizing, in the Hellenic concept, means an active wrestling with one’s conventional opinions and perceptions. It is something we can practice everywhere and at all times – on the bus, in a restaurant, having breakfast, going to bed.
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THE GET-OUT-OF-JAIL-FREE CARD
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03 September 2007
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The hottest topic in Ukrainian politics these days is whether lawmakers should lose their perks. With early elections scheduled for September 30, parliamentary hopefuls need the issue to motivate an otherwise fed up electorate. The tricky part, though, is that all the major blocs are promising the country the same thing - to strip themselves and their colleagues of long-held immunity from prosecution.
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HOT “GAS” SUMMER
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31 August 2007
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Development of three competing gas export pipelines from Central Asia has been started in the summer 2007. The first, the Russian Caspian Gas Pipeline, consists in modernization of the existing facilities; two new projects, the Transcaspian and Transeurasian pipelines, will go to the EU and China, respectively.
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IS ANOTHER DEPRESSION LOOMING?
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31 August 2007
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Western leftist economists are known for having predicted eight crises out of five that erupted. Well, critically thinking people like to predict different crashes, collapses and depressions. The existing system turns out to be irrational so often and in such a large measure, it has so many discrepancies and conflicts, that it is hard to resist the temptation: it seems natural to suspect that something will certainly collapse or break down.
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REMEMBERING GOGOL BETWEEN INDEPENDENCE AND ELECTIONS
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27 August 2007
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Ukraine recently marked 16 years of independence, on August 24th. In less than a month, on September 30th, Ukrainians will vote for a new parliament in early elections. One might be tempted to think that a sense of national purpose is foremost in the minds of many Ukrainians and their leaders, but that would mean taking the country too seriously.
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UKRAINIAN INDEPENDENCE: EASY COME, EASY GO
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22 August 2007
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According to a recent poll, only just over 50 percent of Ukrainians consider August 24th a real holiday, while around 42 percent think it's just a day off. With that kind of attitude, one wonders whether Soviet apologists who accuse the West of engineering the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Ukrainian independence, were right.
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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN
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21 August 2007
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“Nur Otan” party’s success means people’s desire to maintain the existing regime. In fact, the elections turned out the referendum on the President’s policy.
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ON THE THRESHOLD OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN
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17 August 2007
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The political reform in Kazakhstan has created favorable conditions for the multi-party system. The law has been improved, it is true, but everyday practice shows that the reform will change nothing. In the dissolved Parliament the pro-presidential Nur Otan party had the constitutional majority. I am sure this party will retain the constitutional majority after the elections.
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SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION SUMMIT IN BISHKEK
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16 August 2007
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Kyrgyzstan has a lot of opportunities in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Future development of our country, which is located in the middle of Asia and does not have much oil and gas, depends on the regional economic projects in a large measure.
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PHILOSOPHY AS A WAY OF LIFE
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15 August 2007
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As we were discussing last time, there is a movement in philosophy at the moment to go beyond postmodernism’s emphasis on semiotics and ethical relativism, to return to an idea of philosophy as the practice of the ‘Good Life’. One can see this shift take place in the thought of Michel Foucault, who was both the leading postmodernist philosopher, and arguably the most famous intellectual, in the world.
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UKRAINE’S ROAD TO EUROPE NEEDS MORE TRAFFIC RULES
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13 August 2007
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The city of Kyiv is planning to expand its Metropolitan, or system of underground and surface trains, before the year 2012, when Ukraine will host the European football championship together with Poland. What a relief for pedestrians and motorists alike! The estimated cost has been set at 3 billion dollars.
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AN OFFENSIVE AGAINST DOLLAR
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10 August 2007
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Dollar continues its way down, and we all have got used to it. All the medium- and part of the long-term economic forecasts incorporate this trend. Oil prices are on the contrary skyrocketing. These two trends are complementary. For surge of the oil price leaves the demand far behind (despite all the speculations about vast markets in India and China).
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ASTANA, BAKU ENERGY COOPERATION
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09 August 2007
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The agreement on strategic oil and gas cooperation signed by Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan during the two-day visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to Kazakhstan continues development of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline project.
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UKRAINIAN PARTIES ARE PREPARING TO THE EARLY ELECTIONS
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07 August 2007
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The election campaign has begun in Ukraine not only with President Viktor Yushchenko’s fourth decree on dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada. A series of party conventions has recently taken place in Ukraine.
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UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT ON “DEFROST”
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06 August 2007
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More recently a somewhat different climate has taken hold in the Verkhovna Rada, a defrosting of traditional blocs and possibly another chance at the formation of a grand coalition on the horizon. The politician most immediately to be affected by the thaw is parliamentary speaker Oleksandr Moroz, whose surname translates as ‘frost’.
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START OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN UKRAINE
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03 August 2007
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Though some political parties have disapproved the early campaign, all of them are going to take part in the election.
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START OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN UKRAINE
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03 August 2007
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On August 2, the parliamentary election campaign officially takes off in Ukraine. The leaders of the election race, the Party of Regions and Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc are losing their voters and getting less popular.
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NEW ROUND OF THE MINSK-MOSCOW GAS RAW
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02 August 2007
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It is hard for Belarus to appeal to Europe as one of the potential affected parties in the gas conflict between Minsk and Moscow. Earlier this leverage could be effective, but now it is restricted and will not be decisive for the Russian company Gazprom.
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POSTMODERNISM AND THE GOOD LIFE
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02 August 2007
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I’ve moved to London to work on a specific project, which I think is of interest to Russians as much as British people. What I am exploring and researching is the philosophical idea of the Good Life, and its relevance to modern liberal societies and modern politics. The Good Life is an idea originating in ancient Greek philosophy.
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THE FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA: SOCIAL ATTITUDES
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01 August 2007
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The presidential and parliamentary elections in Georgia will take place in a year and a half. However, the voters’ attitudes and opinions about the policy pursued in the country are already in the process of shaping.
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WHEN ARE UKRAINIANS GOING TO LEARN?
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30 July 2007
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Ukraine is expected to continue enjoying solid growth in GDP and a healthy inflow of foreign direct investment, as its economy continues to mature. That’s the forecast for the near term. But the country’s long-term economic prospects will depend a lot on how it develops its education system.
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SOUTH OSSETIA STATUS: LOOKING FOR A NEW APPROACH
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26 July 2007
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On July 24 Tbilisi hosted the first meeting of the State Committee on the status of South Ossetia. The Committee is intended to work out an approach to resolving the argument about South Ossetia’s status that would be acceptable both to Georgia and South Ossetia.
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ELECTION IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH: ANOTHER STEP IN STATEHOOD FORMATION
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26 July 2007
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On July 19 presidential election was held in Nagorno-Karabakh. It was clear beforehand that head of the National Security Service Bako Saakajan was the main presidential candidate.
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KAZAKHSTAN ON THE THRESHOLD OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
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23 July 2007
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The parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan will not give any surprises. The political opposition is unlikely to achieve a breakthrough. So any realistic analysis should be focused on how many votes three dominating parties will get.
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ACCIDENT-PRONE UKRAINE
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23 July 2007
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The modern Ukrainian state was born from the ashes of Chernobyl, the world’s worst nuclear accident. So, one might think that the young country’s leaders would be a particularly careful lot. Keep thinking. A chemical spill in western Lviv Region was the latest disaster to strike, causing around a thousand people to evacuate their homes, and over 180 to be hospitalized.
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GOODBYE RUSSIA
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20 July 2007
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This week, I’m off back to the UK, after almost four years in Russia. No, I haven’t been expelled by the Foreign Ministry, it’s simply time to go home and begin a new project in the UK. I can take this chance to look back on the Russia in which I arrived back in January 2004, and how much has changed.
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ASHGABAT’S ENERGY POLICY
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19 July 2007
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The struggle for Turkmenistan’s energy resources is being waged. Here Russia has obvious advantages. Firstly, Central Asian states regard China as a different civilization. Secondly, the price factor counts.
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FORMER MOLDAVIAN SSR: RUSSIA IS IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT
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16 July 2007
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The Serb-proposed settlement for Kosovo serves as a reasonable option. If implemented in the former Moldavian SSR instance, it would let Pridnestrovie manage its own affairs, while remaining formally linked to Moldova; in a way that involves some interaction between the two.
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UKRAINE’S NATO DILEMMA
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16 July 2007
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To be or not to be a member of NATO – that is the question for Ukrainians, who still aren’t in a position to decide the issue. Public opinion polls conducted in the country continue to show that most Ukrainians are against joining the Western military alliance. But advocates of NATO membership insist that Ukrainians have not been given an accurate picture of what the alliance is about.
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SOCHI SQUARE HORROR
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12 July 2007
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To be honest, I am not too much into sport, with a particular dislike pointed towards professional sporting activities. Especially when these activities suggest attracting excessive funding. But things become worse once presented as a political issue. Last week we were blessed with an unfathomed grace. Sochi is named the 2014 Olympic Games capital.
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FOREIGN BANKS BUY INTO UKRAINE’S CONSUMER CRAZE
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09 July 2007
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European banking giants continue to buy up an ever larger share of Ukraine’s banking market with the aim of getting in on the country’s lending boom. Is this a good thing? The share of foreign capital in Ukraine’s banking system could go from today’s 32 percent to as much as 45 percent by the end of this year, according to Ukraine’s National Bank (NBU).
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THE ANGLO-KAZAKH CONNECTION
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06 July 2007
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The ill-informed Brit might think that the only thing that Kazakhstan and Britain have in common is Borat, the comedy Kazakh invented by British comedian Sacha Baron-Cohen. But actually, the connection is strong and getting stronger. Never mind the jokes – British businesspeople are making serious money in the oil-rich central Asian republic.
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LIFE AFTER PUTIN
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05 July 2007
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The problem is that Vladimir Putin is the only official in Russia who has real authority or at least popularity at the level of the whole nation. No other bureaucrat can pretend to grade up to the incumbent president in popular support ratings. Resentment against the bureaucrats is the dominant social feeling.
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WILL A UNITED “ORANGE” PARTY BE CREATED IN UKRAINE?
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04 July 2007
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The idea of creating a large “orange” bloc on the eve of the parliamentary elections includes two approaches. The first approach is tactical, it implies joint participation in the elections in order to get the greatest possible number of votes. The second approach is a strategic one.
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GEORGE BUSH AND VLADIMIR PUTIN IN KENNEBUNKPORT: RESULTS OF THE INFORMAL MEETING
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03 July 2007
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The meeting could have made the breakthrough if the USA had backed the idea of creation of the joint anti-missile defense in Azerbaijan. However, few people reckoned on that. Vladimir Putin made public this idea at the G8 Summit, and George Bush neither rejected nor supported it.
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THE “SANAKOEV” OPERATION
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03 July 2007
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The Georgian authorities did their utmost to convince the Europeans in Brussels that Dmitry Sanakoev was not Tbilisi’s puppet, but a representative of the Ossetian population in Georgia including the breakaway region.
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WILL A UNITED “ORANGE” PARTY BE CREATED IN UKRAINE?
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28 June 2007
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President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko wishes to create a united party on the basis of the Our Ukraine bloc after the early parliamentary elections in Fall 2007, and there may be several reasons for that.
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AN UNHAPPY BIRTHDAY FOR UKRAINE’S CONSTITUTION
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28 June 2007
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On June 28, Ukraine celebrated its Constitution, with every politician and his brother demanding that the much abused document be altered yet again. It was only eleven years ago that lawmakers had worked through the night to reach a compromise on the creation of a supreme law for the newly independent state. Ukraine’s Constitution was hailed as a guarantee of individual rights for all Ukrainian citizens.
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LONDON: THE CHANGING OF THE GUARD
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27 June 2007
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One more key European leader has left his office this year – this time, it is British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The Russian authorities look upon these changes as a source of new opportunities, not as a problem.
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OF BREAD AND BOLSHEVISM – GRAIN QUOTAS RETURN TO UKRAINE
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25 June 2007
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The Soviet authorities loved to portray their country to the world as a dictatorship of workers and peasants. In fact, the peasants were at the bottom of the Soviet Union’s socio-economic hierarchy, forced to feed the workers, the army and the party functionaries who controlled their lives.
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WILL RUSSIA HAVE A CARETAKER PRESIDENT FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS?
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22 June 2007
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For the last couple of years, much ink has been spilled by hacks and pundits on the ‘2008 problem’. The problem being that the Russian constitution only lets a president rule for two consecutive terms, so president Putin is obliged to step down, even though he enjoys approval ratings of over 80%. Russia now seems remarkably calm about 2008 presidential elections.
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WHY MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT DID NOT TAKE PART IN THE GUAM SUMMIT IN BAKU
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20 June 2007
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Vladimir Voronin did not take part in the GUAM summit in Baku because he did not wish to annoy the Kremlin on the threshold of his visit to Moscow.
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THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE AS THE GEOPOLITICAL POTENTIAL OF THE RUSSIAN WORLD
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18 June 2007
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According to the official data, provided by a number of international organizations, at present 233 million people on Earth speak Russian, with 164 million having it as their native language and 69 million as their second language.
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UKRAINE’S BAND AID MEMORIALS
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18 June 2007
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Perhaps nothing better illustrates Ukrainian authorities’ inability to deal with their country’s most serious problems than their inordinate occupation with monuments. Instead of healing deep national wounds or preventing them from being inflicted again, the authorities often prefer to cover things up with an inexpensive slab of stone, a Band Aid for all occasions.
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THE HEILIGENDAMM LESSON
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15 June 2007
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On my airplane journey from Berlin back to Moscow I was looking through the Russian press. The front page stories were devoted to the G8 meeting and the counter-summit held in Heiligendamm and Rostock, respectively. I was really astounded with what I read there. I had a strong impression that all the Russian journalists had participated in some different Summit, somewhere in a different country.
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UKRAINE IN THE RUN-UP TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
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14 June 2007
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Now the Party of Regions is dominated by the group focusing on businessman Rinat Akhmetov’s interests. The group is not interested in the cooperation with the Socialist Party but it is interested in holding the early elections and in constructive cooperation with the other forces.
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PUTIN’S POLICY OF ‘OBNOXIOUS RISE’
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14 June 2007
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I don’t understand why Vladimir Putin feels the need to be so belligerent and obnoxious in international relations. OK, he’s aggressively asserting Russia’s new economic power, and it plays well with some insecure people at home who prefer to be ‘feared’ by foreign powers rather than free in their own country. But there’s no need to be so belligerent, and ultimately it defeats his own aims.
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OWNERSHIP REFORM AND PRIVATIZATION IN UKRAINE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND PROSPECTS
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13 June 2007
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Throughout the contemporary history of Ukraine – starting from its independence in 1991 – privatization was an object of heated public debate. It is quite natural considering that privatization was the main instrument of social order transformation.
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SOUTH OSSETIA’S CLONED SEPARATISM
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13 June 2007
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Early in May the Tbilisi officials voiced that “it is necessary to carry on the political dialogue with the authorities of the Tskhinvali region”. But Mikheil Saakashvili’s government decided to negotiate with the “alternative President” of South Ossetia Dmitry Sanakoev, who is close to the Georgian government.
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SHADE OF KOSOVO OVER GEORGIA
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13 June 2007
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The pending recognition of independence of the Serbian province Kosovo by the United Nations and attempts by Russia to apply the “Kosovo precedent” to the conflict zones in the post-Soviet space might reverberate negatively for Georgia.
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PUTIN’S DEAD UKRAINIAN HORSE
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13 June 2007
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If you want to punish someone for doing something that isn’t considered wrong by everyone else, it’s very convenient to come up with another justification, even if you have to dig it up from the past. Speaking in Moscow on the eve of the G-8 summit in Germany, Putin said that Russia was through with subsidizing Ukraine and other post-Soviet states with energy resources.
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KYRGYZSTAN: BETWEEN RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN
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09 June 2007
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On June 2 at the Second Meeting of the Kyrgyz Citizens the Kyrgyz opposition leader Felix Kulov advanced an initiative to create the confederation of Russia and Kyrgyzstan.
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ELECTION CAMPAIGN TAKES OFF IN UKRAINE
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08 June 2007
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After Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych had declared their agreement in the morning of May 27, Europe felt a sense of relief.
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G8 SUMMIT IN HEILEGENDAMM
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07 June 2007
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At the Summit the world leaders create the stabilizing atmosphere showing that they have many interests in common. So, neither George Bush nor Vladimir Putin are expected to make strongly-worded statements.
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G8 SUMMIT IN HEILEGENDAMM
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07 June 2007
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I do not think that the relations between Russia and the West will become the major subject of the G8 Summit. Of course, Russia has always been important to the West. But if this issue dominates the agenda of the Summit, one can say that Heilegendamm is a failure.
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN TURKMENISTAN AND UKRAINIAN-TURKMEN RELATIONS
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06 June 2007
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Kyiv has always been interested in keeping Ashgabat at arm’s length. It is not only a matter of the special price of the Turkmen gas for Ukraine and the possibility to buy it avoiding the Russian quotas, but ultimately of the participation in implementation of the Thans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project.
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WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND IN UKRAINIAN POLITICS
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04 June 2007
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Ukraine has got a new prosecutor-general, who really isn’t new at all, but that shouldn’t surprise anyone who has followed the country’s politics. Top officials are changed like underwear, socks and sheets. The only problem is that the laundry doesn’t get any cleaner as a result.
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SKELETONS IN THE CUPBOARD
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01 June 2007
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It is hard to believe but in the beginning of the XXI century the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact has come to the forefront of the political agenda. It is no longer only the historians but journalists and statesmen in Russia, Baltic and Western states who allude to the Pact. Russia’s president Putin is at loggerheads with the Estonian journalists, Estonian MPs appeal to the EU...
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RUSSIA-NATO: PROSPECTS OF COOPERATION
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01 June 2007
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One of the major issues directly concerning the relations between Russia and NATO is the Alliance’s enlargement and accession of new members, the former Soviet republics (Ukraine and Georgia) to the Alliance.
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IS POLITICAL CRISIS STILL IN PROGRESS IN UKRAINE?
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31 May 2007
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The parliamentary elections’ data is unlikely to be revised. After having gained additional electoral advantages the parties are seeking to change the conditions of the election campaign.
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THE END OF THE BOOK?
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31 May 2007
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I’m over in the UK at the moment, trying to get my first book published. To be precise, I’m trying to get an agent, to get me a publishing deal, to get my first book published. It’s proving to be tricky – two agents have said no so far, and that’s just the first hurdle. I’m beginning to realize quite how difficult the British book market is.
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END OF POLITICAL CRISIS IN UKRAINE
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29 May 2007
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The coalition has reduced the score. The gap between the two opposing parties was bridged. Although, in general President Viktor Yushchenko is the winner. His initiative to hold early elections was accepted.
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THE TRAGICOMEDY OF UKRAINIAN POLITICAL CONFLICT
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28 May 2007
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A truce has been announced in the seemingly never-ending conflict between Ukraine’s pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko and his Moscow-leaning nemesis, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych – but can anyone take it serious?
Only Saturday, the country was again attracting the attention of international leaders and media...
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ABOUT LIES, VICTORY AND A FOLLOWER BED ON THE RED SQUARE
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28 May 2007
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This year celebrations of the Victory Day had particular political underpinning for the Russian authorities. After the Bronze Soldier brawl and Poland and Ukraine joining the initiative to remove Soviet war memorials the authorities had no other option but to make celebrations in Moscow a really Big Deal.
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NEW POLITICAL CULTURE IN GEORGIA – PHILOSOPHY OF “WASHING AWAY”
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25 May 2007
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The current events in Georgia clearly indicate that after the Rose Revolution a new political culture is being aggressively planted in the country. Apart from other goals, it is most likely aimed at a complete replacement of the national Georgian traditions and values with the new philosophy.
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RESULTS OF THE RUSSIA – EU SUMMIT
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22 May 2007
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As to the influence of the new French President upon the EU policy towards Russia, from now on Russia will have to consider the EU's opinion.
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CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN KAZAKHSTAN
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21 May 2007
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From now on President Nazarbayev will have a free hand in maneuvering within the elites. He is interested in maintaining the existing peace among the elites.
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SO MUCH FOR UKRAINE - A DAY AFTER THE RUSSIA-EU SUMMIT
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21 May 2007
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If the EU is having trouble finding a common language with the Kremlin, what does this mean for Ukraine, which continues to awkwardly straddle the east-west divide in search of stability? Friday’s Russia-EU summit in Samara was supposed to address touchy issues like human rights and energy supplies. But judging by the press conference held thereafter, both sides agreed not to agree.
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REJEPOV DISMISSED IN TURKMENISTAN
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18 May 2007
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In this situation Rejepov’s dismissal indicates that the Turkmen authorities came to realize that the law and the democracy are of great importance to the modern world, and one cannot isolate Turkmenistan and create one’s own system there.
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RUSSIA-EU SUMMIT: ACUTE ISSUES
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17 May 2007
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The Russia-EU energy issues will be, of course, of paramount importance at the forthcoming summit. But apart from that, there is another significant and at the same time problematic issue, namely, signing the new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.
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THE EU’S CLUELESS ENERGY SECURITY POLICY MUST AMUSE RUSSIA
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16 May 2007
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Last week, the Kremlin signed a deal with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan that apparently stymies the mooted Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, which the EU was hoping would free up some Turkmen gas from the bear hug of the Kremlin. Instead, it looks like for the time being, all Turkmen gas will be exported via Gazprom.
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AUTHORITIES WIN ELECTIONS IN ARMENIA
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16 May 2007
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May 12 parliamentary elections in Armenia changed the political landscape in the country. The parties in power strengthened their positions in the parliament, while the opposition was sidelined.
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VISIT OF THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN TO TURKMENISTAN
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15 May 2007
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Russia at the last moment concluded with Kazakhstan the agreement on joint uranium enrichment within the framework of the international center for uranium enrichment. Those steps are of strategic importance, and they are economically grounded.
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UKRAINE’S REVOLUTION CONTINUES TO REVOLVE
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14 May 2007
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Since President Leonid Kuchma left the scene two years ago, along with his questionable multi-vector policy, Ukraine has been undergoing a revolution – between the two Viktors, Donetsk and Kyiv, East and West – and it’s still not clear where the country will stop or when.
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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD IN UKRAINE
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11 May 2007
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I believe that President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych reached a relative compromise about the early parliamentary elections in Ukraine because they came to realize that saber-rattling and conflict escalation could only lead the country to a deadlock.
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VLADIMIR PUTIN’S VISIT TO KAZAKHSTAN
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10 May 2007
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Energy security is the major topic of the negotiations between the Russian and Kazakh Presidents during Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan. There is a number of important points here.
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BRONZE SOLDIER TAKES A SHOT
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10 May 2007
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Social mobilization in Europe always takes place around a concrete issue, with clear and realistic demands being formulated: to abolish the “First Employment Contract” in France, to return the Ungdomshuset (literally «the Youth House») in Copenhagen to the people, to leave the bronze soldier in Tallinn at its place. These demands are clear, concrete and quite satisfiable.
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MODERN RUSSO-AMERICAN RELATIONS
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07 May 2007
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Unfortunately, I have to state that the strategic partnership between Moscow and Washington has failed. The partnership exists in words only. And there are several reasons for that.
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UKRAINE’S SAUSAGE FACTORY GETS A KICK START
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07 May 2007
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A well-known Ukrainian politician said not too long ago that reaching political compromise in his country was a lot like the making of sausages – the average Ukrainian really wouldn’t want to observe the process. Nevertheless, as the standoff between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yanukovych heads toward a settlement, the country’s sausage factory has been laid open to public view like never before.
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THE STATE-BUSINESS RELATIONS IN RUSSIA
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04 May 2007
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I want to focus on two models of the state-business relations: the relations between the Russian authorities and business before the “Yukos case” and those after the case.
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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN ARMENIA
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03 May 2007
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The parliamentary elections in Armenia scheduled for May 12 are of extreme importance to the Armenian society and the state. The elections will have a direct influence upon the regional processes in the South Caucasus region.
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TENDENCIES IN THE GULF REGION: IRAN, IRAQ AND BEYOND
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02 May 2007
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If there’s an attack on Iran, we are going to have the implications not only in Iran itself but also in the countries that surround Iran. We can only imagine what will happen when the refugee floats start pushing into a place like Dagestan, and this would directly affect the Russian Federation.
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SOCIAL NETWORKING AND SOCIAL ANXIETY
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02 May 2007
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I’m writing a book at the moment about social anxiety. It’s an emotional disorder that makes you terrified of being negatively judged or humiliated by others. It was only officially recognized by the DSM Manual of clinical disorders in 1980, but since then, psychologists have come to think it could affect between 6 and 12% of the population in the US, making it the most common anxiety disorder in the West.
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NEW DECREE OF THE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ABOUT EARLY ELECTIONS TO THE VERKHOVNA RADA
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28 April 2007
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Several considerations underpin President Viktor Yushchenko’s decision to sign the decree postponing the elections to the Verkhovna Rada from May 27 to June 24.
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WHAT WILL THE NEW FRANCE BE LIKE?
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27 April 2007
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As for the second round of the presidential elections in France, we can try to make prognosis about the possible frontrunner but we cannot predict the results with 100% probability.
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UKRAINE’S PRESIDENT FIGHTS FIRE WITH FIRE
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27 April 2007
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is finally starting to employ the tactics of his opponents in the government and the majority it controls in parliament. Long accused of indecision and by observers and even his supporters, Yushchenko has now turned to brinkmanship and blitzkrieg appointments in a last-ditch effort to regain control of executive power.
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WHERE IS UKRAINIAN PRIVATIZATION GOING?
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23 April 2007
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Ever since Yanukovych returned as Ukraine’s prime minister last summer, the country’s privatization drive has started moving in reverse, back to the days of shady state auctions, as under former President Leonid Kuchma. In fact, concerns have recently been raised that Yanukovych’s government may now find it expedient to turn over valuable state assets without even going through the trouble of holding tenders.
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PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN FRANCE
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20 April 2007
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Several days before the presidential election there is much uncertainty. The recent presidential election polls show that about 18 mln voters haven’t made their choice or can still change their mind, which is unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic.
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ABOUT THE FASCISTS AROUND US
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19 April 2007
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The postwar Soviet propaganda represented the fascists as fat Boshes in steel pots and uniform jackets with automatic rifles shouting “Schnell!” and “Verbotten!”. Sometimes they ware lather coats and high crowned caps (like in the epoch-making Soviet TV series “Seventeen Moments of Spring”). Another feature – fascist salutes his fellows in arms with the right arm raised and the “Heil Hitler!” exclamation.
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WHAT’S AT ISSUE IN UKRAINE
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16 April 2007
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The threat of Ukraine veering off the path of democratic development is greater now than ever before, with increasingly authoritarian Russia welcoming the opportunity to recoup lost influence in the region. Yet, unlike during Ukraine’s democratic Orange Revolution over two years ago, Europe and North America appear more reluctant to publicly support the country’s pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko.
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RUSSIAN CORPORATES’ ‘BORROWING ADDICTION’
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13 April 2007
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A strange situation is emerging in Russia: local brokerages have started to express concern over how much local corporates are borrowing externally, while the foreign investors to whom they are selling these bonds say everything is going fine. As the IMF noted in its global financial report, the amount of outstanding emerging sovereign debt is decreasing. In Russia alone, it halved last year...
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ALIENS VS. CAPITALIST PREDATORS
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13 April 2007
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It is a good tradition to celebrate the April Fool’s Day by playing people up. But the Russian authorities were far from joking on April 1st, when launching the campaign “to clean” the retail markets from the vendors holding foreign passports. As a result a number of markets were closed, the prices leaped up, while some patriotically minded commentators called people to tide over temporary difficulties.
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
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12 April 2007
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Despite of the fact that after the Tulip Revolution (March 24, 2005) the new people came into power in Kyrgyzstan, the corrupt policy which had been pursued by the overthrown government was followed in the country.
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OPPOSITION RALLIES IN KYRGYZSTAN
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12 April 2007
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Different scenarios can be expected to take place in Kyrgyzstan. Now the sides do not tend to conflict with each other and to use force. The opposition is not interested in that scenario since inevitable victims will discredit the opposition leaders.
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IS RUSSIA TURNING AWAY FROM WESTERN CIVILIZATION?
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10 April 2007
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I’ve been reading a speech that Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, gave to the Russian Council for Foreign and Defence Policy last month. He was discussing president Putin’s speech in Munich, and he had this to say: “The West is losing its monopoly on globalization, and this is probably why current events are presented as threatening to the West, its values and lifestyle...”
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN UKRAINE: WAYS OUT OF CRISIS
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09 April 2007
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If the Constitutional Court makes the decision to hold early parliamentary elections, it is important for all the stakeholders to accept it. Otherwise, the President will have to cancel his decree.
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ORANGE REVOLUTION II
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09 April 2007
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The sequel to Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution, when hundreds of thousands of peaceful street protesters forced the authorities in Kyiv to hold honest presidential elections, seems to be attracting almost as much of an international audience as the original. And although, like most sequels, Orange Revolution II lacks the excitement and drama of the original.
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UKRAINE: PARLIAMENT DISSOLUTION
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05 April 2007
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The early elections may worsen the situation in the regions. It is the regional authorities that are engaged in the elections, so at the local level the conflicts may intensify.
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN TURKMENISTAN
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04 April 2007
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According to sources in Ashgabat, Berdymukhammedov is gradually strengthening his positions, which is showed by his election as Chairman of Halk Maslahaty.
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RUSSIA-CHINA: BILATERAL RELATIONS
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04 April 2007
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The visit of Chinese leader Hu Jintao to Russia once more emphasizes that the two countries’ positions are close in the sphere of political relations.
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WILL THE VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE BE DISSOLVED?
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02 April 2007
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The President decided to play another game to get back some of his powers lost in the past year, satisfy his ambitions and recover the presidential honor.
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GOVERNMENTAL RESHUFFLES IN KYRGYZSTAN
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02 April 2007
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Bakiyev proves himself to be a strong politician since he is ready to negotiate with the opposition forces and make a compromise with them. That is showed by the appointment of the eminent oppositionist Almaz Atambayev as Prime Minister.
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RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS
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02 April 2007
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After the Russian ambassador Vyacheslav Kovalenko had come back to Georgia early in this year, hope emerged that the relations between the two countries would improve. But little change followed the ambassador’s coming back.
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN ARMENIA
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29 March 2007
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On May 12, 2007 the parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia. The sudden death of Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan came quite as a shock to the country.
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TURKMENISTAN AFTER NIYAZOV: PERSPECTIVES AND CHALLENGES
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28 March 2007
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Currently, the share of foreign companies in recovering Turkmen gas has not exceeded 10%. However, after the death of Turkmenbashi, the new government may revise its policy and open the country’s economy to foreign capital.
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PROSPECTS OF THE RUSSIAN-KAZAKH COOPERATION
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27 March 2007
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Many analysts consider the agreement on the development of the joint nuclear centre on the uranium enrichment to be the “only positive result” of the recent Putin-Nazarbayev meeting (March 19, 2007).
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN UKRAINE
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27 March 2007
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Some influential political forces may appear in Ukraine by the next parliamentary elections in 2011. They will not be connected with any region or territory and they will incarnate the ideas and values important to the entire country.
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RUSSIA’S CENTRAL BANK COMES UNDER FIRE
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27 March 2007
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When 35-year-old Russian financier Alexei Frenkel was arrested in January for ordering the murder of deputy Central Bank governor Andrei Kozlov, many commentators were happy to see at least one of Russia’s many contract killings apparently solved. However, since his arrest, the situation has only got murkier.
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A FEAST OF FOOLS
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23 March 2007
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Three opposition parties have contested results of the Russia’s March 11 regional elections pleading numerous violations. The liberal Union of Right Forces questions the results of the elections to the Moscow legislature. The Communists are discontent with the results of the elections to the Dagestan Parliament scoring barely above the minimum threshold of 7%. LDPR insists that the results were fabricated all in regions.
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UKRAINE: APPOINTMENTS IN THE CABINET OF MINISTERS
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22 March 2007
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If to take into account Yatsenyuk’s considerable experience and young age, he may become one of the most promising young ministers, while the government can get a surprise.
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DO RUSSIA AND THE WEST FACE A NEW COLD WAR?
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19 March 2007
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I believe that there will be no Cold War between Russia and the West. Though there are many misunderstandings connected with the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech in Munich.
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YULIYA TYMOSHENKO BLOC AND OUR UKRAINE BLOC BOYCOTT THE SESSIONS OF THE VERKHOVNA RADA
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15 March 2007
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I want to stress that the early elections are out of the question. Boycotting the Parliament is a demonstrative step the opposition took to show its political resource and political influence.
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MARCH 2007 VS. MARCH 1917. HISTORICAL PARALLELS
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13 March 2007
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On March 3, Russia’s liberal and leftist groups held the Dissenters’ March in St. Petersburg. The rally seems to be the first successful social event of the liberal opposition so far. It gathered over 3000 people; but more importantly it revealed that the ethos of the social protest has changed.
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EU – UKRAINE
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13 March 2007
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An impression of the recent visits of Viktor Yanukovych to Berlin (February 28, 2007) and Viktor Yushchenko to Brussels (March 8-9, 2007) is that the EU – Ukraine relations are at a complete standstill.
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IS RUSSIA HEADING FOR ‘AFFLUENZA’?
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09 March 2007
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Britain has suddenly become obsessed with happiness. A whole new ‘happiness industry’ has boomed, with politicians, psychologists, analysts, and even economists falling over themselves to tell us that what we need is not more money, but more well-being.
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GEORGIA – NATO: PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION
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09 March 2007
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Ambitions of the Georgian authorities to develop cooperation with NATO are largely supported by the population. There is a consensus on the benefits that the country could receive after acquiring membership of the Alliance, though contradictions remain.
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FOREIGN POLICY OF MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI
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09 March 2007
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President Mikheil Saakashvili’s active foreign policy goes in line with his aspiration to make Georgia a connecting link between Asia and Europe.
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NGO COMMUNITY IN RUSSIA: WHO ARE THE PARTICIPANTS?
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05 March 2007
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Now the main danger is that the state tries to divide the civil society organizations into “legitimate” and “non-legitimate” members of the civil society.
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UKRAINE: OPPOSITION ALLIANCE OF BYT AND OUR UKRAINE BLOC
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27 February 2007
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The new opposition alliance of the Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc and pro-presidential Our Ukraine Bloc seem to be a mutually beneficial political marriage.
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THE AIMLESS SOCIETY VERSUS THE DIGITAL AGE
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26 February 2007
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I think I’ve discovered the meaning of life. You remember how a couple of weeks ago, I was complaining that western society had lost a sense of telos, how we seemed to be meandering aimlessly, simply killing time? The week before that I was singing the praises of the digital age, and how it has transformed our existence. A contradiction?
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THE CHECHEN DARK AGES
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22 February 2007
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It is not a secret that Ramzan Kadyrov wants to become president of Chechnya. But till recently he couldn’t – he was too young. And in the Kremlin, they simply didn’t want to put all their eggs in one basket. When back in 2004 Akhmad Kadyrov, Ramzan’s father, was assassinated in a bomb attack and the presidential post became vacant, the federal authorities preferred to promote to the post a dark horse Alu Alkhanov.
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DOES BELARUS-RUSSIA UNION HAVE A FUTURE?
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19 February 2007
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Intricate integration processes are taking place in the former Soviet Union. And there is a danger that as time goes by and new generation grows up, it will become more and more difficult to solve the problems of reintegration in the post-Soviet space.
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GEORGIA’S WAY TO NATO STREAMLINED
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19 February 2007
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Members of the “National Forum” and some other opposition parties fear that Georgia may join NATO without Abkhazia and South Ossetia, thus losing those territories for good.
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UNCONTESTED ELECTIONS
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15 February 2007
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Being more or less corrupt is not the main problem of the Russian politicians – their main problem is that they all are cast in the same mould. What’s the point in coming to polls if the only difference among the candidates is in the incomprehensible and not very attractive labels? Party leaders have nothing substantial to offer to their electorate. In the essence, they even have nothing to debate over.
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PUTIN’S RIGHT ABOUT THE US, BUT WRONG ABOUT RUSSIA
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12 February 2007
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An irony struck me about Putin’s speech in Munich. The Russian president made convincing, if rather blunt, points about the danger of one group having sole power in a political system.
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN TURKMENISTAN
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09 February 2007
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Berdymukhammedov’s positions are not strong in power. Ambitions of the Turkmen elites are being suppressed by special services that have been working for Berdymukhammedov and his team since Saparmurat Niyazov’s death.
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WHAT DOES A RESHUFFLE OF STATE OFFICIALS IN KAZAKHSTAN MEAN?
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08 February 2007
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The new political year in Kazakhstan began with dismissal of the Danial Akhmetov’s Cabinet on January 8. Later on, it turned out that the replacement of the prime minister was the beginning of the large-scale reshuffle initiated by president Nursultan Nazarbayev.
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RUSSIAN RUDENESS
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02 February 2007
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What do I hate most about living in Russia? Is it the long, grim winter? Is the failure of democracy and the eclipse of liberal values? Is it the post-Soviet harship and suffering I see all around me? No, it’s the queue-barging. I really, really hate the queue-barging.
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POLITICAL SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
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30 January 2007
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As soon as Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev nominated Azim Isabekov for the post of prime minister (on January 26), it became possible to speak about the breakup of the Bakiyev-Kulov alliance.
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